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Pattern June 2023 Thread

metwannabe said:
Euro left a lot to be desired in NE NC but seemed to be an outlier atm.
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6z run looked better had it raining late Tuesday, seems the slow trend through Tuesday with the euro has been stronger and slightly more NE with it. I think there's at least decent confidence in a high end rain event somewhere in the carolinas/Georgia but the exact axis is tbd
 
These southern storms every day can pack a punch.
 
Gfs pins the mean heat ridge into the 4 corners, with reinforcing pieces of energy into the eastern troug, low level flow out of the deep tropics = rain and high dew point machine
 
SD said:
Gfs pins the mean heat ridge into the 4 corners, with reinforcing pieces of energy into the eastern troug, low level flow out of the deep tropics = rain and high dew point machine
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Yeah the medium to long range is just a big death ridge for days out in the west. Total opposite from last year at this time where we were dealing with the death ridge. You have to think eventually that subtropical ridge complex is going to want to move east over us....it's just a matter of when. not if. Until then, below avg temps next week with the cut off. This has been a wierd spring and early summer with lots of eastern troughing and cut offs. Honestly, if it werent for this meandering cut off next week, we'd likely be baking along with Canada and upper plains/Great Lakes. We're getting quite lucky, but eventually it'll run out.
 
GFS turns the southerly flow on and keeps it on.....

gfs_apcpn_us_64.png
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Yeah the medium to long range is just a big death ridge for days out in the west. Total opposite from last year at this time where we were dealing with the death ridge. You have to think eventually that subtropical ridge complex is going to want to move east over us....it's just a matter of when. not if. Until then, below avg temps next week with the cut off. This has been a wierd spring and early summer with lots of eastern troughing and cut offs. Honestly, if it werent for this meandering cut off next week, we'd likely be baking along with Canada and upper plains/Great Lakes. We're getting quite lucky, but eventually it'll run out.
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That hear ridge means business but there's not a lot to kick it out right now. I could see it being a semi permanent feature this summer with our primary heat surges being from NW flow advection events out of the ridge or if it starts trying to get oriented more W-E.
 
SD said:
That hear ridge means business but there's not a lot to kick it out right now. I could see it being a semi permanent feature this summer with our primary heat surges being from NW flow advection events out of the ridge or if it starts trying to get oriented more W-E.
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Not sure the heat gets here for a while but I think it'll spread to more of TX and into OK and Kansas before too long. Maybe into the Ohio valley too. With any luck we may get a get a repeat of the 2013 summer in the southeast.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Yeah the medium to long range is just a big death ridge for days out in the west. Total opposite from last year at this time where we were dealing with the death ridge. You have to think eventually that subtropical ridge complex is going to want to move east over us....it's just a matter of when. not if. Until then, below avg temps next week with the cut off. This has been a wierd spring and early summer with lots of eastern troughing and cut offs. Honestly, if it werent for this meandering cut off next week, we'd likely be baking along with Canada and upper plains/Great Lakes. We're getting quite lucky, but eventually it'll run out.
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The ridge will get here just in time for winter.
 
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