Pattern June 2023 Thread

[NCSNOW]

Saw this today going through Green Swamp area of Brunswick County.

Massive wildfire burning at NC coast after ‘controlled burn’ goes out of control

The fire is burning east of N.C. 211 in the Green Swamp Game Land and Green Swamp Nature Preserve.

myfox8.com

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Today was the first day it really felt like summer to me; hot and muggy. Still no 90 but it still was summer like. GSP topped at 88.

 

[Brent]

I thought it was just my location...

It seems like the same here ever since that Christmas cold ? there still hasnt been any real winter or severe weather in the metro since

 

[J1C1111]

Today was the first day it really felt like summer to me; hot and muggy. Still no 90 but it still was summer like. GSP topped at 88.

Same here. Dodged 90 again. 88 here to. First day I got ate up by bugs outside yesterday. Usually feels like this in April most years. Will take it.

 

[SD]

This incoming cutoff should start getting some attention. The overnight runs go well past beneficial rain in some locations

 

[RBR71]

This incoming cutoff should start getting some attention. The overnight runs go well past beneficial rain in some locations

Euro left a lot to be desired in NE NC but seemed to be an outlier atm.

 

[Shaggy]

This incoming cutoff should start getting some attention. The overnight runs go well past beneficial rain in some locations

The 06z gfs was a wee bit wet

 

[LickWx]

Euro left a lot to be desired in NE NC but seemed to be an outlier atm.

Bright side while the rainy areas are in the 60s we are warm and summery here… there’s a positive side !

 

[SD]

Euro left a lot to be desired in NE NC but seemed to be an outlier atm.

6z run looked better had it raining late Tuesday, seems the slow trend through Tuesday with the euro has been stronger and slightly more NE with it. I think there's at least decent confidence in a high end rain event somewhere in the carolinas/Georgia but the exact axis is tbd

 

[accu35]

These southern storms every day can pack a punch.

 

[NoSnowATL]

These southern storms every day can pack a punch.

Lucky.

 

[NoSnowATL]

I will update Friday with the real totals. I’d guess 1-3in but we can hope 4-6in is right.

 

[SD]

Gfs pins the mean heat ridge into the 4 corners, with reinforcing pieces of energy into the eastern troug, low level flow out of the deep tropics = rain and high dew point machine

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Gfs pins the mean heat ridge into the 4 corners, with reinforcing pieces of energy into the eastern troug, low level flow out of the deep tropics = rain and high dew point machine

Yeah the medium to long range is just a big death ridge for days out in the west. Total opposite from last year at this time where we were dealing with the death ridge. You have to think eventually that subtropical ridge complex is going to want to move east over us....it's just a matter of when. not if. Until then, below avg temps next week with the cut off. This has been a wierd spring and early summer with lots of eastern troughing and cut offs. Honestly, if it werent for this meandering cut off next week, we'd likely be baking along with Canada and upper plains/Great Lakes. We're getting quite lucky, but eventually it'll run out.

 

[Downeastnc]

GFS turns the southerly flow on and keeps it on.....

 

[SD]

Yeah the medium to long range is just a big death ridge for days out in the west. Total opposite from last year at this time where we were dealing with the death ridge. You have to think eventually that subtropical ridge complex is going to want to move east over us....it's just a matter of when. not if. Until then, below avg temps next week with the cut off. This has been a wierd spring and early summer with lots of eastern troughing and cut offs. Honestly, if it werent for this meandering cut off next week, we'd likely be baking along with Canada and upper plains/Great Lakes. We're getting quite lucky, but eventually it'll run out.

That hear ridge means business but there's not a lot to kick it out right now. I could see it being a semi permanent feature this summer with our primary heat surges being from NW flow advection events out of the ridge or if it starts trying to get oriented more W-E.

 

[JHS]

GFS turns the southerly flow on and keeps it on.....

This reminds me a lot of late June into July of 2013 which was very wet for us. The big heat never settled in here that summer if I remember correctly.

 

[JHS]

That hear ridge means business but there's not a lot to kick it out right now. I could see it being a semi permanent feature this summer with our primary heat surges being from NW flow advection events out of the ridge or if it starts trying to get oriented more W-E.

Not sure the heat gets here for a while but I think it'll spread to more of TX and into OK and Kansas before too long. Maybe into the Ohio valley too. With any luck we may get a get a repeat of the 2013 summer in the southeast.

 

[Rain Cold]

Yeah the medium to long range is just a big death ridge for days out in the west. Total opposite from last year at this time where we were dealing with the death ridge. You have to think eventually that subtropical ridge complex is going to want to move east over us....it's just a matter of when. not if. Until then, below avg temps next week with the cut off. This has been a wierd spring and early summer with lots of eastern troughing and cut offs. Honestly, if it werent for this meandering cut off next week, we'd likely be baking along with Canada and upper plains/Great Lakes. We're getting quite lucky, but eventually it'll run out.

The ridge will get here just in time for winter.

 

[SD]

 

[J1C1111]

Yeah the medium to long range is just a big death ridge for days out in the west. Total opposite from last year at this time where we were dealing with the death ridge. You have to think eventually that subtropical ridge complex is going to want to move east over us....it's just a matter of when. not if. Until then, below avg temps next week with the cut off. This has been a wierd spring and early summer with lots of eastern troughing and cut offs. Honestly, if it werent for this meandering cut off next week, we'd likely be baking along with Canada and upper plains/Great Lakes. We're getting quite lucky, but eventually it'll run out.

No doubt. Im approaching 11 months without a 90 degree reading yet. I'm loving it. Seems to happen once every 20 or so years around hear.

 

[jrips27]

 

[BufordWX]

Long Range NAM pretty aggressive with rainfall through Tuesday night. Although, it is probably overdoing it on the totals. Also the long range NAM doesn’t have a great track record. Still Looks like a pretty decent chance someone on here is gonna get some big time rainfall next week.

 

[iGRXY]

Long Range NAM pretty aggressive with rainfall through Tuesday night. Although, it is probably overdoing it on the totals. Also the long range NAM doesn’t have a great track record. Still Looks like a pretty decent chance someone on here is gonna get some big time rainfall next week.View attachment 135484

I think it has legs. A 7-10” band is setting up along the border with wide spread 5-7” means across northern SC, NE GA, and WNC.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Divide by 2 then 2 again and you get your totals.

 

[Tarheel1]

Drought begets drought! ?

 

[Brent]

I'm about to get rocked if something doesn't change

 

[Arcc]

I'm about to get rocked if something doesn't changeView attachment 135491View attachment 135492

Dang 110mph+ aloft.

Edit: hang on to your butt Brent, now showing nighttime EAS requested warning with 90mph winds.

 

[Arcc]

Now seeing a bin of ~120mph 2500 feet AGL. Wow.

 

[Arcc]

Huge area of 115mph+ bins headed right into Tulsa.

Edit: Can’t tell for sure but I believe that is a 130mph bin on a later scan. That is the highest I’ve ever seen outside of a tornado or hurricane.

THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR THE TULSA METRO AREA.

HAZARD...100 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

 

[Brent]

I don't think I've seen wind like that since a couple hurricanes when I was a kid in Alabama. Wow

I was taking video but my phone is dying and the power is out so I'll have to see later

 

[NorthDFWwx]

 

[NorthDFWwx]

 

[NorthDFWwx]

It seems like the same here ever since that Christmas cold ? there still hasnt been any real winter or severe weather in the metro since

^^^Welp, this aged like milk...

 

[NorthDFWwx]

 

[J1C1111]

The ridge will get here just in time for winter.
[/QUOTE

^^^Welp, this aged like milk...

Yeah that was crazy how quick things can change so quick not long after the post. Crazy how things work like that. But they seem to.

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

What a lovely April we are having this June.

 

[EmersonGA]

57.9 this morning. Got the yard cut and the garden weeded before the monsoon hits this week.

 

[Brent]

Yeah the signal at my apartment was complete trash(of course it also has a mess everywhere) but it doesn't seem nearly as bad a couple miles down the road. I even found power! Gonna be interesting to see if there was something localized

 

[FallsLake]

Down in Orlando doing the parks with the family. Man I haven’t felt heat/humidity like this since last summer. Afternoon rain helps but it’s still hot. I will say the afternoon storms are really cool with vivid lightning.