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Pattern June 2023 Thread

SD

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Looks to be an interesting month. First shot at some summer like weather the first few days of the month. Maybe a severe weather threat or 2 between 6/4-11, probably another eastern trough as the conus pattern retrogrades in the 6/4-13 period, likely to move toward a climo summer pattern after the 15th, may make a big run at heat 6/22-30.
 
Yep, cactus season getting an early start here! ?614A3F67-E192-45C9-85D1-094F064ABAB5.png
 
Well, really for the first time, I am not seeing any 50s show up for morning lows in the 2 week outlook and all but 1 day in the 80s after Thurs; with many of those being mid 80s. Summer is going to be here after the weekend for my area and that's just the reality. It's been a fantastic run of nice weather the past couple of months but we knew we couldn't escape it forever. Now I'll start the slow countdown till Sept 15th, I'm ok after that.

Edit: actually just looked at the GFS and it still shows that little cool down around the 8th-10th, but then really cranks the heat after that. Its been over doing the heat and that is long range so I expect that will moderate but regardless, summer is only a few days away for most.
 
Pretty entertaining write up by GSP on the GFS for next week! ?

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday: Oh what a challenge it has been to gain
steady insight into the synoptic pattern for the end of the weekend
and next week. As noted by the previous forecaster, the pattern
does look to become more amplified by Sunday, but it remains unclear
exactly how that will play out since each guidance source is off in
its own little world. The CMC and ECWMF are in decent enough
agreement through Sunday night, depicting a fleshed-out upper low
off the New England coastline...which remains too far north and east
of the forecast area to promote much moisture or synoptic forcing in
the Carolinas. This would promote some isolated to widely scattered
low-end diurnally-forced convection...but little else. And granted,
the 06z and 12z GFS cycles are showing this as well...it`s just that
where the other guidance keeps this feature to our northeast, the
GFS (and the majority of its ensembles, for what that`s worth)
depict some retrograde motion of the low, westward into the Ohio
Valley through Monday. Were this scenario to play out, it`d pretty
strongly enhance the dynamical forcing over the Carolinas by by
Monday afternoon, and more active weather could be in order. I like
to imagine the GFS as similar to an 80s-style action movie villain:
sitting in its dark lair laughing, its intentions unclear and yet
definitively at odds with everyone else. In the case of 80s movies,
of course, this typically resulted in various popcorn-worthy action
sequences...while in the case of the GFS, the "villainous" solution
would just result in far better convective potential than what the
rest of the guidance favors.


Regardless of which solution plays out for Monday...most of the
guidance depicts some flavor of shortwave rotating across the Mid-
Atlantic on Wednesday, though impacts will hinge on timing and
intensity of this feature, which at this point is about as clear as
mud. Temperatures will fall a little below normal for Monday (maybe
a lot below normal if the GFS`s deep-upper-low solution pans out)
before rebounding to at least a category above normal by Wednesday.
 
PGV has never made it past June 13th without hitting 90.....according to the daily monthly data on NWS there has not been a day to hit 90 yet this year, though I thought it had.

The latest run of the GFS remedies this on June 11th....so close to the latest ever first 90 degree day for this area...
 
PGV has never made it past June 13th without hitting 90.....according to the daily monthly data on NWS there has not been a day to hit 90 yet this year, though I thought it had.

The latest run of the GFS remedies this on June 11th....so close to the latest ever first 90 degree day for this area...
It'll be close. We are riding a fine line these first 10 days to 2 weeks between upper 90s and upper 70s so it wouldn't be surprised if we snuck a 90 through
 
Yeah, not sure how the LR will play out for when it gets hot (>90). As Downeast just said the 6z GFS would get many of us above 90 around the 11th. But who knows if it'll verify. We were supposed to get hot now from the GFS a week ago. Even so, this run would have this right before our warmup (Dew points day 7):
1685621301892.png

We would then warm up afterwards and hit the 90s for a day or two before dropping back down to dew points in the 50s to end the run. I would take this setup any day.
 
Humid as crap out there today. Can't wait for 90s.
If we can keep the humidity down it will feel good. The euro is not as gung-ho on the day 10 warm up. It does have temps getting well up into the 80s but the dew points stay really nice.
Day 9 midday temps:
1685656878858.png

Day 9 midday dew points:
1685656822578.png

For us, 85/48 would be really nice.
 
Is it just me or are we not getting as many afternoon pop up storms as we usually do this time of year ? On a typical June day, there is usually a good bit of afternoon storms.
 
If we can keep the humidity down it will feel good. The euro is not as gung-ho on the day 10 warm up. It does have temps getting well up into the 80s but the dew points stay really nice.
Day 9 midday temps:
View attachment 135348

Day 9 midday dew points:
View attachment 135347

For us, 85/48 would be really nice.
Hot and dry is worse than cold and dry! ?
 
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