Pretty entertaining write up by GSP on the GFS for next week! ?
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday:
Oh what a challenge it has been to gain
steady insight into the synoptic pattern for the end of the weekend
and next week. As noted by the previous forecaster, the pattern
does look to become more amplified by Sunday, but it remains unclear
exactly how that will play out since each guidance source is off in
its own little world. The CMC and ECWMF are in decent enough
agreement through Sunday night, depicting a fleshed-out upper low
off the New England coastline...which remains too far north and east
of the forecast area to promote much
moisture or synoptic forcing in
the Carolinas. This would promote some
isolated to widely
scattered
low-end diurnally-forced
convection...but little else. And granted,
the 06z and 12z
GFS cycles are showing this as well...it`s just that
where the other guidance keeps this feature to our northeast, the
GFS (and the majority of its
ensembles, for what that`s worth)
depict some retrograde motion of the low, westward into the Ohio
Valley through Monday.
Were this scenario to play out, it`d pretty
strongly enhance the dynamical forcing over the Carolinas by by
Monday afternoon, and more active weather could be in order. I like
to imagine the GFS as similar to an 80s-style action movie villain:
sitting in its dark lair laughing, its intentions unclear and yet
definitively at odds with everyone else. In the case of 80s movies,
of course, this typically resulted in various popcorn-worthy action
sequences...while in the case of the GFS, the "villainous" solution
would just result in far better convective potential than what the
rest of the guidance favors.
Regardless of which solution plays out for Monday...most of the
guidance depicts some flavor of
shortwave rotating across the Mid-
Atlantic on Wednesday, though impacts will hinge on timing and
intensity of this feature, which at this point is about as clear as
mud. Temperatures will fall a little below
normal for Monday (maybe
a lot below
normal if the
GFS`s deep-upper-low solution pans out)
before rebounding to at least a category above
normal by Wednesday.
