• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern July

Holy Moly, 98 with 104 HI at 4 PM at Hunter Field, near SAV, which are both just about the highest in the entire SE. Not quite as hot as the hottest of the May heatwave yet but higher dewpoints bringing the HI a few degrees higher than May for the most part. Walking must be inside. Thank goodness for AC!
 
GaWx said:
Holy Moly, 98 with 104 HI at 4 PM at Hunter Field, near SAV, which are both just about the highest in the entire SE. Not quite as hot as the hottest of the May heatwave yet but higher dewpoints bringing the HI a few degrees higher than May for the most part. Walking must be inside. Thank goodness for AC!
Click to expand...
:confused::mad::(

Edit:

actheat_1280x720.jpg
 
Currently: pouring rain!! ?????????????????
 
GaWx said:
Liking this only for the map, not the high HI. Thanks for posting that. A pic is worth a thousand words.
I just checked my home therm at 4:30 PM and sure enough it was 97.5 with no cooling seabreeze yet and mainly sunny with only a few cumulus.
Click to expand...
I'm liking it for the like ... :eek:
 
SD said:
No change other than to up Thursday to 99 and to add the weekend. 97 Friday, 97 Saturday, 94 Sunday
Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
This may bust high thanks to a less impressive ridge, more daily cumulus, and rain chances by Thursday.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
RaIn ChAnCeS
Click to expand...
The setup is looking nice from as early as late Wednesday through Sunday with the area on the northern expanse of the ridge early then on the southern edge of the trough late. Plenty of disturbances to move through if I miss out on this then I just give up

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
The setup is looking nice from as early as late Wednesday through Sunday with the area on the northern expanse of the ridge early then on the southern edge of the trough late. Plenty of disturbances to move through if I miss out on this then I just give up

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Hopefully you can get a good soaking rain, good luck ?? Those setups could favor some strong afternoon storms aswell
 
SD said:
The setup is looking nice from as early as late Wednesday through Sunday with the area on the northern expanse of the ridge early then on the southern edge of the trough late. Plenty of disturbances to move through if I miss out on this then I just give up

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Yeah business looks like it'll pick up again in 2-3 days.
download - 2019-07-01T100912.911.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah business looks like it'll pick up again in 2-3 days.
View attachment 20719
Click to expand...

We might get lucky here in western NC tomorrow with a weak lee trough, while NAM is likely overdoing instability, I don’t see how storms would die off in this environment, nam/hrrr did the same thing yesterday were they killed of storms to soon), but 500mb temps are definitely warmer, as for severe wx, ofc with large Dcape/mid level drying some isolated downbursts could occur 1D7B115A-7FD5-4687-B96A-D1BDACF96C66.jpeg34CF9198-DCFA-475E-A89E-5A2C97017F6A.pngEC1B1D5D-5734-4902-B749-41D2150BB04D.jpeg
 
SD said:
The setup is looking nice from as early as late Wednesday through Sunday with the area on the northern expanse of the ridge early then on the southern edge of the trough late. Plenty of disturbances to move through if I miss out on this then I just give up

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
If nothing else you'll probably have a good light show at times each night
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
We might get lucky here in western NC tomorrow with a weak lee trough, while NAM is likely overdoing instability, I don’t see how storms would die off in this environment, nam/hrrr did the same thing yesterday were they killed of storms to soon), but 500mb temps are definitely warmer, as for severe wx, ofc with large Dcape/mid level drying some isolated downbursts could occur View attachment 20720View attachment 20721View attachment 20722
Click to expand...

Synoptic-scale descent & lack of large-scale forcing, low background relative humidities, fairly meh mid-level lapse rates, and weak deep layer shear will be impediments to getting long-lasting t'storms.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Synoptic-scale descent & lack of large-scale forcing, low background relative humidities, fairly meh mid-level lapse rates, and weak deep layer shear will be impediments to getting long-lasting t'storms.
Click to expand...

Yep, unfortunately they will be very pulse like, probably gonna be that one isolated storm that looks like it’s gonna hit you, then collapses just after it develops, but yeah that those not so good lapses between 500-700mb will be a issue and the nam typically has dew points to high, so the boundary layer will likely be more mixed out then it shows
 
Storms will probably be very isolated in nature around here like they have been 99% of the time the past few years.
 
I just realized I caught the “life cycle” of lightning
1. Leader bout to hit the ground BA407E31-F559-440C-BC61-A173954BC5C6.jpeg
2. Leader hits the ground (CTG lightning)
CC404C48-94F6-4219-B9C1-36E99A22DEAD.jpeg3.
2 return strokes of lightning A27B1A0C-5CB5-4E6A-8598-B0927B984BEA.jpeg0587A867-EF53-4AEB-A69D-5BB5051976FA.jpeg
Conclusion - i wouldn’t want to get hit by that, leader then return strokes would electrify you, many people think it’s one strike then boom, but there’s more to it, note this was from the storm anvil, which can often have positive lightning, which is even more stronger
 
It’s gonna be hot asab today, I’d take this tho (large BL mixing allowing lower DPs, similar to that May heat vs the nam showing 92-96 with dew points around 68-72
That’s a ugly environment for thunderstorms
Unimpressive theta E, huge mixed out BL, high LFC/LCLs, trash low level moisture
Questioning whether to go fishing today now with my grandpa that has copd, this heat ain’t good for it + ground level ozone 509D2708-B738-4D95-A356-79E96368AA1A.png9825F9A4-5B65-4666-9C79-C981505C15A6.jpeg
 
It looks dry to start today but later in the upper levels some moisture may try to work into western NC.
1562066451015.png

Wednesday looks much better for storm chances with much more mid level moisture to work with.

1562066500939.png
 
SD said:
I am actually getting a little excited about storms late this evening into the early overnight
Click to expand...
Thats one thing i enjoyed about being in Conway SC are those sea breeze fronts firing those high definition cumulonimbus thunderstorms.
 
To give an idea of last months flooding, Berry Mountain Park and swim beaches will be closed for the rest of the year. Lots of dead fish inland in the woods/hills. Smells. Wilkes County NC.
 
Folks, we’re living in historic times with the longest non-winter -NAO period on record back to 1950: 67 days and still showing no sign of ending soon! During May-July, a -NAO actually correlates partially to a warm SE with a SER pattern. The old non-winter record had been the 61 days of 7/12/1958-9/10/1958. In 3rd place now is 5/26/2012-7/21/2012 with 56 days followed by the 53 days of 8/7/1968-9/28/1968 and the 52 days of both 6/18/1957-8/8/1957 and 9/30/1968-11/20/1968. Wx history is so much fun to study.
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
Folks, we’re living in historic times with the longest non-winter -NAO period on record back to 1950: 67 days and still showing no sign of ending soon! During May-July, a -NAO partially actually correlates to a warm SE with a SER pattern. The old non-winter record had been the 61 days of 7/12/1958-9/10/1958. In 3rd place now is 5/26/2012-7/21/2012 with 56 days followed by the 53 days of 8/7/1968-9/28/1968 and the 52 days of both 6/18/1957-8/8/1957 and 9/30/1968-11/20/1968. Wx history is so much fun to study.
Click to expand...
-NAO? What's that? lol.
 
Last edited:
Listen closely along the I-95 corridor today, if this verifies.... temps in the mid to upper 90's and DP's mixing out to low to mid 50's you'll hear the earth slurping the last bit of moisture in the ground

1562080325940.png
 
GaWx said:
Folks, we’re living in historic times with the longest non-winter -NAO period on record back to 1950: 67 days and still showing no sign of ending soon! During May-July, a -NAO partially actually correlates to a warm SE with a SER pattern. The old non-winter record had been the 61 days of 7/12/1958-9/10/1958. In 3rd place now is 5/26/2012-7/21/2012 with 56 days followed by the 53 days of 8/7/1968-9/28/1968 and the 52 days of both 6/18/1957-8/8/1957 and 9/30/1968-11/20/1968. Wx history is so much fun to study.
Click to expand...
Does this mean it's half way around it's cycle and should be back for Winter in 69 years? Light at the end of the tunnel
 
Tired of all these air quality alerts. Think they could simplify it into a monthly alert instead of daily?
 
GaWx said:
Folks, we’re living in historic times with the longest non-winter -NAO period on record back to 1950: 67 days and still showing no sign of ending soon! During May-July, a -NAO actually correlates partially to a warm SE with a SER pattern. The old non-winter record had been the 61 days of 7/12/1958-9/10/1958. In 3rd place now is 5/26/2012-7/21/2012 with 56 days followed by the 53 days of 8/7/1968-9/28/1968 and the 52 days of both 6/18/1957-8/8/1957 and 9/30/1968-11/20/1968. Wx history is so much fun to study.
Click to expand...

Here’s a great chart showing it. You know come winter it’ll reverse and be solidly positive.

3277C501-C806-4B21-B7EA-AC436FC0B0F9.png
 
GaWx said:
Folks, we’re living in historic times with the longest non-winter -NAO period on record back to 1950: 67 days and still showing no sign of ending soon! During May-July, a -NAO actually correlates partially to a warm SE with a SER pattern. The old non-winter record had been the 61 days of 7/12/1958-9/10/1958. In 3rd place now is 5/26/2012-7/21/2012 with 56 days followed by the 53 days of 8/7/1968-9/28/1968 and the 52 days of both 6/18/1957-8/8/1957 and 9/30/1968-11/20/1968. Wx history is so much fun to study.
Click to expand...

It's fun to observe changes like these over the course of the seasonal cycle and is a testament to how different forcing agents play different relative roles at particular times of the year. During the summer, things like thermal damping via SSTs, surface heat fluxes related to albedo and/or latent heat exchanges with the ocean, frozen, or melting land & sea ice, in addition to (at least in the earlier parts of the summer anyway) circulation changes attributable to the "final warming" of the polar vortex as winter comes to a close play a significantly larger role proportionally in the summer. On the other hand rossby waves in the mid-latitude storm track and external sources of variability that affect the amplitude and trajectory of these waves (including but not limited to ENSO & QBO) which usually tends to dominate over the other aforementioned sources of NAO variability in the winter, takes more of a backseat, hands-off, or laissez-faire role this time of the year if you will, but are still important considerations nonetheless. That's my 2 cents anyway
 
Decent cluster of storms have fired over southern West Virginia and are moving south, even forcing the SPC to issue a MCD.

Here's to hoping they organize into a QLCS and make it to my neck of the woods later this evening.

Screen Shot 2019-07-02 at 1.30.23 PM.png
 
gotta make it though Wilkes first before ur neck of the woods little one
 
Last edited:
SPC climo for July 2nd is a bullseye for Blowing Rock, Wilkesboro, Hickory, Charlotte for damaging severe winds compared to the rest of the country.
 
Not even a marginal risk out for Boone NC seems like they are gonna miss the boat on this one awful quick
 
100.9 F on my therm. at 2:30 PM. UN-BE-LIEVABLE! No seabreeze and just a few cumulus clouds.

Edit: make that 102.2 at 2:40 PM!! Hotter than anything I saw in May. Crazy!

Heat indices at 2 PM: 110 at Augusta and 108 at KSAV!

Irrigation resumes tonight.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top