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Pattern July

You could have had this
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Would you rather - have 0.2 stratiform rain or a nearby thunderstorm with cool lightning but no rain and your the only area that misses ?
 
Yeah I have to agree. I'm still not certain the front passes the area but if it does maybe the -10-15 has some legs. Climo for mid summer certainly argues for this to come to a halt over the area

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Didn’t we have fronts last July that dropped temps to 10 below normal?


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Didn’t we have fronts last July that dropped temps to 10 below normal?


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Sure did RDU had a high of 79 and a low of 57 behind the front. It's not that unusual to get fronts into the area in July but it is more usual to see temps tempered back to slightly below normal not to get a big cool/dry push with highs 10-15 degrees below normal. My thing with this setup is are we able to get a long wave trough to plow though the area? We are kind of teetering on the models between pushing a deep trough through or having it elongated then split where the northern piece heads off into the Atlantic and the southern piece closes off over the area. If scenario #1 pans out we probably get a day or 2 in the low 80s with dews in the 50s/60s (CMC) if scenario 2 pans out the front would likely stall then wash out or lift north with a much more muted cool/dry push (GFS) It'll be interesting to see how the models pan out over the coming days

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