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July Surprise!

Will that LP track far enough north for central NC to get in on some sustained thunderstorm activity?
 
I’m finally going to get some rain! It’s been quite awhile! Slam dunk coming S to N
 
Got some very good rain. Honestly before they started to die some, the thunderstorms were more run of the mill even here. But the rain was needed.

Likely about to get more as well later tonight.
 
The NAM is showing a small lollipop of rain right over my area late tonight into tomorrow morning. Hmm... I find this a little hard to believe, but I guess anything can happen. Live or die by the models as they say. Maybe I will wake up in the middle of the night to a surprise.77DE4DD6-F819-4EA8-9311-AD94DE4D8F48.jpeg
 
600dm ridge? Ouch.

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Shaggy said:
Today has started out on a promising note. The AC is fixed and the part was under warranty so all it cost me was labor. Now if we can actually see the hrrr and 3k be correct on the storms today the today will be a good day.
Click to expand...
Sun is shining here, CIN has eroded, SB/ML Capes are building, PWATS increasing to around 2 inches. Yep I bet we fail

My concern for today is we get big convection going from say MHX to FAY that barfs out an outflow boundary moving N and we start to see more isolated to scattered convection as it moves north.
 
SD said:
Sun is shining here, CIN has eroded, SB/ML Capes are building, PWATS increasing to around 2 inches. Yep I bet we fail

My concern for today is we get big convection going from say MHX to FAY that barfs out an outflow boundary moving N and we start to see more isolated to scattered convection as it moves north.
Click to expand...

Hrrr now keeps the heavy stuff one county to my SW and blanks me. I know its likely to be off and not to be taken literally with those lollipops but man I've struck out so many times the last 3 weeks I guess I expect it now.
 
I think most of NC misses out on the good rain with this. The low seems to be going due east now. Going to have to be from 50 miles west of Fayetteville to Elizabeth City and south to see widespread rain with this. Scattered showers and a couple of storms north of there.
 
So through 11 hrs on the hrrr it would appear i suck at getting storms here. It's been an abysmal here this year in terms of thunderstorms.

I'm in the general vicinity ofnthe little red dot.
 

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Where is the best place to view the hrrr... I used to view on weather bell but can't anymore.

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