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July Surprise!

As of 220 PM Saturday: The extended period is a bit tricky to nail
down. The main question remains, exactly how quickly with the
tropical moisture exit the region? It seems likely that at least
some of the moisture will linger into Wednesday, but then northerly
flow behind the system should further dry things out Thursday.
Increasing heights building in from the west should offset any
increase in sunshine leading to only gradual increase in diurnally
driven instability heading into next weekend. So rain and
thunderstorm chances and the associated excessive rainfall threat
should be on the decline Wednesday into Thursday. All guidance
points towards a strong ridge setting up over the center of the
nation could provide a northwest flow regime atop the region by next
weekend. This would support an uptick in temperatures, most notably
east of the mountains. This could also set us under a mesoscale
convective system track with strong instability set up in a
development zone upstream of us in the Ohio Valley


Maybe some big storms next weekend into the next week.
 
Score. One of the few times I do well is when I’m down wind of the downtown heat island.

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Something this summer has been lacking with so far has been the thunderstorms I like to call the evening bloomers. Most of the storms have happened during daylight hours around here so far, but I am really craving some big time after dark storms. Maybe I will get my wish soon?
 
These storms are surprising me given the terrible mid level lapse rates, guess the fatter cape from the very moist PBL is making up for it a lot
 
Woooohhhh! Started pouring like never before ! Sun was out as well! Sunny and pouring ! Still pouring !

The devil is beating his wife y’all!

I saw a rainbows end! My neighbors house had the rainbows end ! On top of his house !
 
Lickwx said:
I thought for beaches north of Hatteras winds out the east brought the warmest waters while westerlies brought the cold?
Click to expand...
That’s actually 100% true. Water has been up around 80 degrees. It blows the Gulf Stream closer to shore
 
Might have spoken too soon. Hearing some good thunder now and have a severe storm warning close by.
 
RAL scores once again. It never fails. Must be in part due to being on the fall-line. Soils and convergence have to play into summertime storms in the Triangle as opposed to Charlotte. We rely on the Lee Trough, and betting those storms can make their way to the Piedmont.
 
Figures. There’s a huge thunderstorm sitting almost stationary 5 miles west of me. E5E311C5-3C01-4D02-8182-67989B0309AF.gif
 
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