November.
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July Surprise!
- Thread starter Ollie Williams
- Start date
November.
Nahh remember November is our new winter
Oh... so yeah, next year.
It literally did
Ahh, so that's when it all went to hell! That map makes me angry.
cd2play
Member
That day was a snow weenie's worst nightmare. In middle TN, it snowed heavily for 6 hours, only for it all to melt when hitting the ground. It was 36 degrees THE. WHOLE. TIME. ?????
ThE sUn ANgLe
When I move there that better never happen. Nashville is supposed to see more snow than CLT. But that would be my luck.
...New England southward through the Carolinas...
Though mid-level lapse rates will generally be weaker compared to
areas west, the combination of surface heating and ascent with the
longwave trough over the region will foster scattered to numerous
band of convection throughout the entire region in the afternoon and
early evening. Enough mid-level flow will exist for loose
organization into clusters and linear segments, which will promote
potential for isolated damaging wind gusts in a few areas. This
threat will also be diurnally driven and wane after sunset.
Meh...
Maybe
Though mid-level lapse rates will generally be weaker compared to
areas west, the combination of surface heating and ascent with the
longwave trough over the region will foster scattered to numerous
band of convection throughout the entire region in the afternoon and
early evening. Enough mid-level flow will exist for loose
organization into clusters and linear segments, which will promote
potential for isolated damaging wind gusts in a few areas. This
threat will also be diurnally driven and wane after sunset.
Meh...
Maybe
Supercell Near Hendersonville NC
Solid storm to my north, nothing can beat insolation with a approaching trough axis lol 
Has a weak hailcore aloft 
Splitting storm, response to increasing wind shear
Better advection of EL temps/better llvl moisture has started so it wouldn’t shock me
Much better hrrr run for tomorrow
Managed to snag this from the storms up north 
NCSNOW
Member
Think best chances tommorow will be east of i85. Looks like we knock the heat back this weekend
BufordWX
Member
I have become quite curious in how many watches have been issued during the summer months in parts of the southeast. So I went ahead and looked up the amount of watches issued in both Charlotte and Raleigh during the summer months (JJA) to compare to what has been a quiet summer in terms of organized severe weather.
These are all Severe Thunderstorm Watches unless otherwise noted.
Charlotte:
2010: 3
2011: 4
2012: 4
2013: 3 (1 Tornado Watch)
2014: 2 (1 Tornado Watch)
2015: 2
2016: 3
2017: 0
2018: 2
2019: 4
2020: 0 (so far)
Looking at the last 10 years Charlotte has generally seenbetween 2-4 watches every summer. The one outlier is 2017 which had none during the summer months, but there were 2 Severe Thunderstorm Watches issued in the last few days of May and a Tornado Watch issued on September 1st.
Raleigh:
2010: 5
2011: 3
2012: 8
2013: 3 (1 Tornado Watch)
2014: 3
2015: 5
2016: 5
2017: 0
2018: 0
2019: 6
2020: 0 (so far)
Raleigh in the past 10 years seems to have had quite a few severe weather events until 2017 and 2018 which went without any watches being issued during the core summer months. Outside of those two years Raleigh has generally seen about 3-5 watches a year.
Overall, I’m interested to see how this summer will end up versus previous years in terms of organized severe weather. Maybe things will pick up the last half of July into August, or will we go without any watches all summer?
Crap 
Looks like outflow trying time keep things alive tonight .. no models really seeing this even the HRRR shows nothing .. looks like a nowcast with our ears tonight
Really hope this activity doesn’t cost us tomorrow’s threat by pushing OFBs way East
Rip tomorrow’s storms lol 
Brent
Member
first 100 degree day today here... but the heat index barely topped 106 after 115 yesterday
Also at 3am this morning had 60 mph winds from an outflow off the Oklahoma storms, zero rain
Also at 3am this morning had 60 mph winds from an outflow off the Oklahoma storms, zero rain
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mid range gfs still trying to throw us a 100 degree day, but so far 95 is the hottest we've been. Next few days should see 97 at least. The bulk of the heat ridge stays in the middle of the country though.
And just like that we awake to claps of thunder ... beautiful thing
What's Happening outside
Shaggy
Member
Had a big storm fire up to my east and it put down a bunch of rain. When i got to work the parking lot had some big puddles all over. Missed my house by a couple miles east so MBY still needs some help to fully break the curse.
cd2play
Member
As long as it stays there: 1. We probably avoid triple digits, and have mostly low-mid 90s for highs. 2. Opens the door for MCS activity as storm clusters love to ride down the eastern periphery of the ridge. The question is, will the ridge eventually slide our way or stay to our west the entire summer....
Shaggy
Member
That was the sound of today's rain chances going down the drain.
This one picture sums up my entire summer. It did hold together enough to give my house a quick shower and it sprinkled here at work as it dried up over Pitt county.
Attachments
Probably but I'll take the .35 from last night to the bank and hope we can add extra todayThat was the sound of today's rain chances going down the drain.
Man that's rough. I don't know how much I got last night, but the Raleigh radar estimate shows a big min over SE Wake. I heard thunder for 3 hours but never heard a downpour. But the ground is a little wet. I dunno.
Wind is can around to the south here looks like we are east of the boundary at this point. Lets see
BHS1975
Member
Yeah looking at satellite it looks like the outflow from last night's storms is to our south but being forced back north with a secondary boundary near gso to just nw of rduLooks like it’s right on top off us.
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