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July Surprise!

Myfrotho704_ said:
Other than the extremely deep warm cloud layers/fully moist soundings which may be a significant limiting factor, that setup looks decent for some severe (wind)
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Agree. I was wondering if this will be one of those days where as soon as the sun gets going we have scattered showers everywhere that are kind of shallow but produce high rain rates or do we have to wait for initiation along the boundaries in place then we get multicells along outflow collisions.

I am leaning toward initial development between 40 and the va border with a west to east cell motion that kicks outflow south where new development takes place.

All of that to say start getting tall anvils with high pwat good day for microburts.
 
SD said:
Agree. I was wondering if this will be one of those days where as soon as the sun gets going we have scattered showers everywhere that are kind of shallow but produce high rain rates or do we have to wait for initiation along the boundaries in place then we get multicells along outflow collisions.

I am leaning toward initial development between 40 and the va border with a west to east cell motion that kicks outflow south where new development takes place.

All of that to say start getting tall anvils with high pwat good day for microburts.
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Yeah the shear is also surprisingly solid along that axis of energy (1km around 20-30kts)
 
metwannabe said:
This looks solid.....

View attachment 45175
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Not going to lie the QPF drop off on our side of the mountains leaves a lot to be desired but I wouldn't complain about 1-2 this week and another 1-2 next week. I want to see what happens when this gets inside of the range of the 3k and the CAMs to see if they show higher totals. Typically though I would be expecting the globals to show massive totals across the area since they are a little more coarse and widespread precip would lead to the QPF bombs, I am not sure if that error was fixed in the latest upgrades so they may be running a little low. I do know that I find it hard to really be negative about late tomorrow through early Saturday, too much focus for convective, ridge is finally dying, lots of high pwat air.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
That’s quite a change from the past few months of good luck you’ve had with rain
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Definitely..... I missed out on all the complaining about no rain and am just happy to finally be able to join the fun
 
SD said:
Not going to lie the QPF drop off on our side of the mountains leaves a lot to be desired but I wouldn't complain about 1-2 this week and another 1-2 next week. I want to see what happens when this gets inside of the range of the 3k and the CAMs to see if they show higher totals. Typically though I would be expecting the globals to show massive totals across the area since they are a little more coarse and widespread precip would lead to the QPF bombs, I am not sure if that error was fixed in the latest upgrades so they may be running a little low. I do know that I find it hard to really be negative about late tomorrow through early Saturday, too much focus for convective, ridge is finally dying, lots of high pwat air.
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That was my thinking too, generally the GFS just broadbrushes precip everywhere and unless it's a LP with widespread rain, it's QPF is generally useless on the high side during convection season.
Then again I could score a couple of big time boomers before the week is out and keep my 7" average streak going..... I think I'd actually complain more about that lol
 
Pretty solid, I smell linear convection Friday with unidirectional westernly flow, pretty impressive wind shear CDFBD84C-6DF5-423E-9BA9-48481FFD8BF0.pngD849C108-6F1F-4AC6-A2B3-EA3D022A328A.png93B21CE0-CB51-49F6-BB55-182239FF268E.png8DA272D3-3C2B-430F-8E0F-D905176DCB2B.png
 
SD said:
NE Wake rain forest in full effect
View attachment 45187
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Has to be all the farms or something man! Something makes this area great. Just got back from Medoc mountain state park, quite the hidden gym and looks like it could have dark enough skies at night to see the Milky Way. Also gold ! I need to go back and try to find gold there.
 
lol euro going boom with Dixie alley this weekend/next week, is that even a surprise ?
 
Lickwx said:
Has to be all the farms or something man! Something makes this area great. Just got back from Medoc mountain state park, quite the hidden gym and looks like it could have dark enough skies at night to see the Milky Way. Also gold ! I need to go back and try to find gold there.
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It is a nice little gem tucked away in good 'ol Halifax County, although I can think of better weather than 105 HI to visit lol.
 
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