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Pattern Juggernaut June

From Maxar (Radiant) mets this morning:
"The 6-10 Day period features a highly amplified pattern, with warmth in the West and below normal temperatures from the Plains toward the East Coast. From a Population-Weighted CDD perspective, the forecast ranks 11th fewest among national records dating back to 1950. The Midwest region is forecast as the second fewest, with no real cooling demand."

So, since 1950, the forecast for 6/11-15 is the 11th coolest for the US as a whole with the Midwest 2nd coolest! There is a strong +PNA progged. The +GLAAM/El Nino is likely a big factor setting this up. Whereas late spring was a lion for much of the SE, there are at least some encouraging signs that most of the E US may very well have a tame summer ahead.
 
Highs here really busted on the low side here. Forecast had a high Near 80 for Atlanta, and the highest I have seen there today is 76.

Temperature is starting to go down here as well was at 76.6 for my high earlier now down to 71.8.
 
When are the models going to start backing off the rain totals? It’s inevitable
 
BufordWX said:
Can you send some of that rain here? Best I have gotten the last two days is mist and drizzle.
Click to expand...

The really good news is that the current as well as prior runs of the models are unanimous in giving you ~3" of rain for the 120 hours starting 8 PM this evening!
Meanwhile, here we got a big one as mentioned with ~2" that fell within an hour.
 
Looks like a shower cam through here before I got home from work. TWC app has another storm coming through between 8 and 10 tonight.
 
Tomorrow into early Saturday will be the time for this area to start putting up big rain totals. Some convergent boundaries at the surface up to 700mb move into the area and pwats go sky high. I like the setup but I would be much more thrilled if I was in the area between I40 and the VA border where the biggest totals may be.


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Sounds like a storm is brewing here. Just had some loud rumbles of thunder.
 
SD said:
Radar is getting a little interesting

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Click to expand...

I just had one of my worst storms in years. Nothing super strong in the wind department but I had atleast 5 strong downbursts and could smell broken trees. Precip was ridiculous and filled my neighbors ditch in no time. Totally caught me off guard as there was never a warning on the storm. I got a video or 2 I'm downloading.
 

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Shaggy said:
I just had one of my worst storms in years. Nothing super strong in the wind department but I had atleast 5 strong downbursts and could smell broken trees. Precip was ridiculous and filled my neighbors ditch in no time. Totally caught me off guard as there was never a warning on the storm. I got a video or 2 I'm downloading.
Click to expand...
This looks awesome

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SPC latest update has expanded marginal risk a bit to the north to include east MS, almost all of AL, and west GA. Main risk is strong winds and maybe a spin up tornado.BD3A8086-1F8B-442B-91AC-68856E48304E.gif4504F199-60B5-478E-AE65-BC3E19EF766F.gif
 
BufordWX said:
SPC latest update has expanded marginal risk a bit to the north to include east MS, almost all of AL, and west GA. Main risk is strong winds and maybe a spin up tornado.View attachment 20207View attachment 20206
Click to expand...
D97102FF-CD93-44DE-812F-44C421F515C9.gif


Mesoscale Discussion 1011
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0806 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2019

Areas affected...east-central MS...central AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 070106Z - 070200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Transient supercells will be capable of intermittent
strengthening of low-level mesocyclones with the strongest updrafts.
A brief/weak tornado is possible this evening. The isolated
character and magnitude of the threat will probably preclude the
need for a small tornado watch.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a band of convection, from
north-central MS southeastward into west-central AL, with embedded
discrete cores immediately east of a surface low over east-central
MS. Surface observations show backed southeasterly surface winds
east of the ongoing convective activity. KBMX VAD show the
low-level winds acting to enlarge the hodograph (around 200 m2/s2
0-1km SRH). The 00z Birmingham, AL raob showed a very moist/deep
boundary layer with just over 100 J/kg MLCAPE, all located below
500mb. The equilibrium level (based on a 100mb mean parcel) is just
below the -20 degrees C level and would likely not support much
lightning with the stronger updrafts. The moist-adiabatic lapse
rate/pseudo tropical profile will not cool substantially during the
evening.

As a belt of modestly strong, southerly 850mb flow shifts northward
across central and then into north-central AL and northwest GA
through the late evening, expecting episodic strengthening of small
mesocyclones in the very moist airmass over far east-central MS in
the near term and later into parts of central AL. A brief/weak
tornado may accompany the strongest circulations.
 
BufordWX said:
View attachment 20209


Mesoscale Discussion 1011
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0806 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2019

Areas affected...east-central MS...central AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 070106Z - 070200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Transient supercells will be capable of intermittent
strengthening of low-level mesocyclones with the strongest updrafts.
A brief/weak tornado is possible this evening. The isolated
character and magnitude of the threat will probably preclude the
need for a small tornado watch.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a band of convection, from
north-central MS southeastward into west-central AL, with embedded
discrete cores immediately east of a surface low over east-central
MS. Surface observations show backed southeasterly surface winds
east of the ongoing convective activity. KBMX VAD show the
low-level winds acting to enlarge the hodograph (around 200 m2/s2
0-1km SRH). The 00z Birmingham, AL raob showed a very moist/deep
boundary layer with just over 100 J/kg MLCAPE, all located below
500mb. The equilibrium level (based on a 100mb mean parcel) is just
below the -20 degrees C level and would likely not support much
lightning with the stronger updrafts. The moist-adiabatic lapse
rate/pseudo tropical profile will not cool substantially during the
evening.

As a belt of modestly strong, southerly 850mb flow shifts northward
across central and then into north-central AL and northwest GA
through the late evening, expecting episodic strengthening of small
mesocyclones in the very moist airmass over far east-central MS in
the near term and later into parts of central AL. A brief/weak
tornado may accompany the strongest circulations.
Click to expand...

Solid soundings based off the hrrr, it actually has areas of 500+ jkg of sfc cape with a very deep moist layer, LCLs at ground scraping levels, impressive low level hodo along with a impressive critical angle, and man that PWAT tho, where ever it rains with that type of moisture it will pourrrr, anyways if soundings like this verify nighttime tornadoes would probably be a issue E39D504A-D81B-4DFD-913A-E5142431EF19.png
 
I think 3” pwats will be a reality soon as the warming continues.


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