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Pattern Januworry

Wave timing and spacing are going to make the next 2 weeks sweaty. No north Atlantic block means we have to get the waves in the NE OR the PAC ridge axis to act as our suppressor particularly for the Carolinas. Time it right and you have snow from Louisiana to Hatteras time it wrong you have this weekend all over again or worse, push the trough axis east enough and you have a coastal low burying the central and eastern Carolinas. I suspect we will see many more ensemble runs with blips all over the place.
 
SD said:
Wave timing and spacing are going to make the next 2 weeks sweaty. No north Atlantic block means we have to get the waves in the NE OR the PAC ridge axis to act as our suppressor particularly for the Carolinas. Time it right and you have snow from Louisiana to Hatteras time it wrong you have this weekend all over again or worse, push the trough axis east enough and you have a coastal low burying the central and eastern Carolinas. I suspect we will see many more ensemble means with blips all over the place.
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Time it right.... so BAU right?
 
SD said:
Without a -nao yeah. It's the gift and the curse of having these expansive pac ridges. Big cold shots, impressive sfc highs but short windows to win before the next round of energy is digging and trying to close the window
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Such a fine line too. See last Feb where it drops just a little west and TX/AR get it
 
Chandler said:
From early glance, Canadian is pretty close next week, I’d assume some of this is snow
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Yeah CMC keeps the trough more positive tilt and brings in a late bloomer

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Some of the GEFS members look promising for a winter storm in the SE next weekend. As others said, time it right, most of the Central/Eastern SC and NC could be looking a good winter storm with snow (maybe mixed in with sleet) being the primary winter precip. Time it wrong and this becomes another NE snowstorm and we're looking more rain/freezing rain.




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Broken024 said:
CMC has two hits within a few days. No way we ---- this up.


If theres a way, rest assured we will find and execute it. This weekend beats all Ive ever seen lol. Monday we where chasing .1 to .2 fluff/ratios. Got excited when our shortwave started amplifying. Then got face slapped when models discovered a Kicker wave on its heels causing an inland track-hybird-unstacked fiasco. Nothing like surface temps in the low to mid 20s with single digit windchills and seeing it Rain.
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Myfrotho704_ said:
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I've heard really good things about the Canadian Ensembles.......no really I have, stop looking at me like that. modernweenie After December, I feel very fortunate to have an above average to good pattern showing potential threats coming up the rest of the month. If we can get one to stick and give a board wide snow, even if it's on the lighter side....this will a pretty memorable January IMO.
 
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