Really not far from a January 2018 look and if it trends deeper a December 2017 look. Not that any event is the same but the overall look is to definitely start looking like a decent overrunning threat.
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Pattern Januworry
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Zander98al
Guest
I remember that December 2017 storm. Perfect amount of snow, I think I had around 4 inches or so. Would definitely prefer a system like that rather than a blizzard of any sorts
ECENS has much more precip west than 0z. Of course, that’s relative.
I’m noticing there’s a ton of members with light events 
Feels great really… we have a good north facing hill in our neighborhood that’s fairly shaded and has had very little snow melt…kids are still getting some decent sledding in
Honestly that’s good to see at this point.. nothing really skewing the mean. Also I like us being in a position again for the WAR to need to flex more as we get closer
Like the smart people already said, a whole bunch. In fact, at least the way I remember it, there are far more examples of Storm -> No storm (gone or too suppressed or too far east) -> Storm is back YAY than Storm -> Storm -> Storm. It seems like it almost always happens that way.
Hypsometric
Member
I’d say it’s about 80/20 (maybe more) of example one at least for us. Big, little, I don’t know that there’s any pattern to the outcome most winter storms in the southeast other than there’s a signal, then a few runs with storms then something changes and the storm is gone but the signal remains and then the storm comes back. And honestly ensembles are not immune to this either. Often we see the ops leading the ensembles in a direction, the ensembles just usually lag getting there by a run or two.
Torch !!! It’s coming 
Prestige Worldwide
Member
HurricaneSolomon
Member
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While I’m definitely hoping for that blockbuster snowstorm I’d also be lying that since I work outside I wouldn’t mind a nice 65° day in February.
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Makes this system coming up make even more sense. Normally we have storm systems at the end of favorable patterns. Has happened a lot! Feb 2014 was a good example. We got slammed in SC, then exactly a week later it hit 80° in Columbia.
The facts that there’s much agreement on at least a flizzard for the SE .. means big at 100 hours out when lows are known to trend amped and NW come go time.. I know we beat it like a dead horse but it’s extremely applicable in almost every storm we have covered this year in some way .. this a beautiful thing to see at this range
I remember reading a couple days or so prior to the blockbuster storm in February '73 where temperatures hit the high 70s and low 80s.
Heck! Before a nice winter storm in February 1989 (which was a warm winter based on memory), I recall temperatures in the high 70s and low 80s prior to getting 5 inches of snow in the late February snowstorm.
February 2004 is another great example… CLT metro with widespread 12-24” snowfall, then 4 days later it was pushing the 70.
If you happen to be referring to the early January of 2018 coastal, there are indeed some similarities. However, the big difference is that much colder air was already in place as the low formed 100 miles SE of the S tip of FL:
January 2018 North American blizzard - Wikipedia
That hit along the GA and lower SC coast was a once a generation type of storm there. KSAV had a high the day before of a mere 39 and a low of 21, only 4 above the record low. So, very cold air was already in place. To compare, the GFS and Euro are progging a highs there a day before this week’s possible storm in the upper 40s to low 50s and lows near 32-35. The NWS has a low/high near 32/52 on this Thursday, one day before precip would start. So, we’re dealing with an airmass in advance that’s chilly (about 10 BN) but is also some 12 or so degrees warmer than the 2018 storm, which had temps near 22 BN. That doesn’t mean there can’t be a SE winter storm, of course, especially well north of here in upper SC and NC where it would be quite a bit colder and also colder air can come in with the storm. I’m just reminding readers that the airmass already in place was uncommonly cold unlike the expected antecedent airmass for the upcoming situation being only rather ordinary cold.
If you happen to be referring to the early January of 2018 coastal, there are indeed some similarities. However, the big difference is that much colder air was already in place as the low formed 100 miles SE of the S tip of FL:
January 2018 North American blizzard - Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org
View attachment 109976
That hit along the GA and lower SC coast was a once a generation type of storm there. KSAV had a high the day before of a mere 39 and a low of 21, only 4 above the record low. So, very cold air was already in place. To compare, the GFS and Euro are progging a highs there a day before this week’s possible storm in the upper 40s to low 50s and lows near 32-35. The NWS has a low/high near 32/52 on this Thursday, one day before precip would start. So, we’re dealing with an airmass in advance that’s chilly (about 10 BN) but is also some 12 or so degrees warmer than the 2018 storm, which had temps near 22 BN. That doesn’t mean there can’t be a SE winter storm, of course, especially well north of here in upper SC and NC where it would be quite a bit colder and also colder air can come in with the storm. I’m just reminding readers that the airmass already in place was uncommonly cold unlike the expected antecedent airmass for the upcoming situation being only rather ordinary cold.
Yeah I’m thinking more of the small snow event that played out across AL and GA from some overrunning over the arctic front.
stephend122080
Member
The 3 day trend on today's 12z EPS is really looking better for next weekend. Ridge out west is poking further north and shifting further west while the northern trough dips further SW and you can also see the WAR moving west as well. Just hope the shifts start to slow down just a bit in the coming days.
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It has happened quite a bit, but it’s also not happened far many more times and we just don’t remember those times. Winter storms are more memorable than 40 and sunny while some nondescript storm goes on deep in the Atlantic.
If Allen is in .. I am certainly in 