Cary_Snow95
Member
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Pattern Januworry
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
griteater
Member
GFS did dig further west, but it’s having the same issue as the Euro…stays too positive tilt and doesn’t sharpen at the base of the trough. Good setup overall though if we can get a few tweaks
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Too flat of a shortwave
We really need to get the TPV out of here so the wave can pinch off and tilt negatively.
griteater
Member
Getting this to dig farther west is a good thing. Think we just need another shortwave to drop down the backside of the trough to achieve better tilt at the end. Models could easily miss on something like that this far out
Parker
Member
I’m not great at reading the the H5, and really need to work on it, but was that run not isanely close to a boardwide bomb?
TPV looks about a hundred miles further north on GEFS at 102
The GEFS is an improvement as well
That's probably what's going on. I'll bet in a lot of these cases, you see these big storms and then some of the energy that is key to the system gets lost for a couple of days or so and then gets back on the grid and guess what? You see the storm start showing up again.
See the energy around Lake Superior? As Grit just mentioned, we need something to go down the back of the trough to tilt it some so it can go negative, if that or another pocket of energy streams down sooner and/or further west, that would do the trick.
Cary_Snow95
Member
On that run you add some tilt and it’s gonna explode
I’m confused. Wouldn’t the TPV separating and pulling North remove our source of cold air? Aren’t we usually rooting for the TPV to come close enough to provide the cold air?
Yeah, troughs don't tilt negatively if there are troughs behind it -- that screwed up this run.
We're rooting for the TPV to get out of here so the wave can tilt negatively. Typically shortwaves that cut off from the TPV at the last minute do a good job of supplying cold air.
Hypsometric
Member
Haha you ain’t kidding. Look how similar yesterday’s 18z GFS was to today’s 18z run. Same players in almost the same position, just slightly different strengths.
? ? 
Pretty decent west trend.
Down the stovepipe and right smack dab into the middle of the four corners region. Honk honk. Cant ask for much more than that.
Back in the day we would be buying snow shovels with the GFS/GEFS showing this at day 5