Pattern Januworry

[lexxnchloe]

GFS very similar to ICON. really pretty good.

 

[Arcc]

Still a big bomb off the coast. Still lots of time for this one to change.

 

[Arcc]

Still a big bomb off the coast. Still lots of time for this one to change.

This said, if the trend on the Euro continues its DOA right now. Looks like the reverse of the normal trend continues to happen this year where the northern stream speeds up and the southern slows down. Not a good trend to be seeing start again.

 

[lexxnchloe]

Next Saturday

 

[ajr]

Seems like more ensemble support for a low forming closer to the coast?

 

[ajr]

Some of the ensemble members look great

 

[packfan98]

Yes, there’s definitely a good signal that there’s going to be a storm of some sort. What kind of support is there on the Euro and Canadian ensembles?

 

[whatalife]

Here are the ensembles for my area for next weekend.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Yes, there’s definitely a good signal that there’s going to be a storm of some sort. What kind of support is there on the Euro and Canadian ensembles?

Pretty classic Miller A setup.

 

[bingcrosbyb]

Give me this look at 850s and I would say boardwide hit. Just too warm 850 -> surface.

Arcc: Long range NAM is sooooo close across central AL early next week. A few degrees from 925mb to the surface….

 

[LukeBarrette]

Seems like more ensemble support for a low forming closer to the coast?

View attachment 109574

Gonna be lots of shifts in every direction. I wouldn’t pay attention to shifts until 100 hours out. Just need the storm signal to still be there 100 hours out.

 

[Rain Cold]

For the next 10 days, both the Euro and GFS look supportive, pattern-wise of chilly and potentially wintry weather in the east. After that, at least on the GFS of, the pattern seems to come apart. Yesterday's 18z looked great but the 0z and 6z looked crappy. But things can change, and I haven't looked at the ensembles, the CFS, the Bleaklies, or any Strat or MJO stuff.

0z Euro D10



6z GFS D16

 

[Arcc]

6z NAM actually breaks some snow out in east AL and north GA. Let’s see if it continues to cool.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Good lord lol

 

[Stephenb888]

Good lord lolView attachment 109621View attachment 109622View attachment 109623

We really need to get out of this cranking up in NC stuff. Need this thing to start getting cranked back in Georgia.

 

[Arcc]

The NAM is still slowing down. If we can delay it until the evening we may pull this off.

 

[weatherfide]

What the heck, NAM?

 

[malak05]

Two runs in a row from NAM showing snow breaking out thru Cental-East Alabama all thru I20 into GA and then NE on Tuesday

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This sort of stuff excites me, the energy is already in Canada on Tuesday, this is about as good as a signal as you can get for this range, this has some big dog potential, everything is so classic. the western ridge, TPV near Hudson Bay, the hook. Woof

 

[Ollie Williams]

This sort of stuff excites me, the energy is already in Canada on Tuesday, this is about as good as a signal as you can get for this range, this has some big dog potential, everything is so classic. the western ridge, TPV near Hudson Bay, the hook. Woof View attachment 109630View attachment 109629

I know I said I hated the setup yesterday, but I changed my mind. My concern is that this thing doesn't dig enough and can't develop until it gets to the northeast. Otherwise, lots of cold air is available.