whatalife
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Pattern Januworry
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
NEGaweather
Member
That banana high is Money I don’t care what the surface shows
If the post 300hr storm doesn't get sheared
whatalife
Moderator
Absolutely!
NoSnowATL
Member
Usmeagle2005
Member
From what I’ve learned also, you couldn’t pay me to be in the sweet spot right now.
whatalife
Moderator
Cool what having more low pressure in the 50/50 region can do 
348-60 going to be so close
This look has my interest a bit, feel like we need a stronger signal for a trough here for more suppression, stuff might try to cut/become apps runners if the N/S energy around the lakes is to weak 
Hoping we all can cash in over the next 3 weeks. Exciting times. FFC throws a bone in its latest discussion…
LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
Only minor concern in the long term period is likelihood of
winter precip next Saturday.
What`s left of front should be mostly out of the area by early
Monday with strong NW flow and below normal temps pattern
following most of the week. One shortwave expected to drop down in
NW flow on Wed but almost no chance for moisture return in this
pattern so only clouds expected. 12Z deterministic GFS somewhat of
an outlier with deeper wave traveling west of the area with a
little more clouds and a spot or two of light precip. Even GEFS is
dry so only 5-10% PoPs for Wed night this cycle.
Wave digs deeper and amplifies as it moves into the Atlantic with
very strong NNW flowand subsidence over the area Thurs/Fri.
Meanwhile, upper low over the SW CONUS left behind in split flow
finally progged to kick out east across the southern states. These
kickers are notoriously hard to get the timing right and models
can be off by 24-48 hours. So anyway, assuming the wave does move
into the SE by next weekend, we would see a slightly favorable
setup for light winter precip at onset with liquid precip falling
into cool and very dry low levels. With very low confidence in
pattern and generally low model confidence at day 7-8, have not
included in official grids at day 7 but do have a spot or two in
our placeholder for day 8 (sunday).
SNELSON
LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
Only minor concern in the long term period is likelihood of
winter precip next Saturday.
What`s left of front should be mostly out of the area by early
Monday with strong NW flow and below normal temps pattern
following most of the week. One shortwave expected to drop down in
NW flow on Wed but almost no chance for moisture return in this
pattern so only clouds expected. 12Z deterministic GFS somewhat of
an outlier with deeper wave traveling west of the area with a
little more clouds and a spot or two of light precip. Even GEFS is
dry so only 5-10% PoPs for Wed night this cycle.
Wave digs deeper and amplifies as it moves into the Atlantic with
very strong NNW flowand subsidence over the area Thurs/Fri.
Meanwhile, upper low over the SW CONUS left behind in split flow
finally progged to kick out east across the southern states. These
kickers are notoriously hard to get the timing right and models
can be off by 24-48 hours. So anyway, assuming the wave does move
into the SE by next weekend, we would see a slightly favorable
setup for light winter precip at onset with liquid precip falling
into cool and very dry low levels. With very low confidence in
pattern and generally low model confidence at day 7-8, have not
included in official grids at day 7 but do have a spot or two in
our placeholder for day 8 (sunday).
SNELSON
GEFS is starting to hint at cross polar flow at only day 10/hr 240 now
Broken024
Member
So many opportunities to make something happen over the next few weeks.
LovingGulfLows
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 1,300
- Reaction score
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GFS is almost non-stop troughing....jesus. How does someone in the South not score big in this pattern? Honestly, wouldn't be surprised if there are multiple southern winter storms in the back half of the month.
2M temp anomaly 5 run trend 
MSLP anomaly 5 run trend, note the bridge of sfc highs out of the Arctic starting to get going, signaling CP flow, it’s a model trend to this at day 10 and not at hour 360
MSLP anomaly 5 run trend, note the bridge of sfc highs out of the Arctic starting to get going, signaling CP flow, it’s a model trend to this at day 10 and not at hour 360
It’s happy hour indeed 
griteater
Member
This GFS run reminds me of that GEFS Ext run from last night where it got stuck in a loop, shown here from Day 4 to Day 16
Low pressure stuck over Scandinavia / Barents Sea
High pressure stuck in E Asia
Low pressure stuck in the Aleutians
High pressure dropping down E of the Rockies
Low pressure running off the E Coast
It's not a -NAO type of setup, but it's about as good as it can be on the Pacific side. And as others have mentioned, getting Nor'easters to run up into Newfoundland slows down the N Atlantic flow a bit
Same here for the Pacific jet where it gets stuck with max jet extension just north of Hawaii
Low pressure stuck over Scandinavia / Barents Sea
High pressure stuck in E Asia
Low pressure stuck in the Aleutians
High pressure dropping down E of the Rockies
Low pressure running off the E Coast
It's not a -NAO type of setup, but it's about as good as it can be on the Pacific side. And as others have mentioned, getting Nor'easters to run up into Newfoundland slows down the N Atlantic flow a bit
Same here for the Pacific jet where it gets stuck with max jet extension just north of Hawaii
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