Pattern Januworry

[FallsLake]

The reliable (cough cough) CFS is on board for a storm at day 10:

 

[CaryWx]

Definitely getting a storm signal on the models now. True timing and placement tbd

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

The reliable (cough cough) CFS is on board for a storm at day 10:
View attachment 102766

I guess we can add it to the list. The CMC yesterday, the GFS today and the Euro looked like it had a system with good 850s based on the free maps I saw. I'm guessing it didn't produce and was too far south since I didn't see a single map from it on here.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Don’t know if it’ll happen but that’s how it’s done.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

starting to get a legit signal on the EPS, looking at individual members seem as if some of them have mixed precip (likely the ones that are lower)

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Flizzard watch lol

 

[wxdaniel]

I believe we are good across the Carolinas right now. Even on the east side. All the snow pack through the Great Lakes and New England I’m not sure any of the models are taking that into account.


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[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

starting to get a legit signal on the EPS, looking at individual members seem as if some of them have mixed precip (likely the ones that are lower) View attachment 102768View attachment 102769View attachment 102770View attachment 102771View attachment 102772

Yeah I look at the number of members producing instead of a mean amount. I'd rather have half the members with something and a lower mean than have 2 or 3 hits and a higher mean that's skewed.

 

[Stormlover]

Euro control

 

[Chazwin]

Yeah I look at the number of members producing instead of a mean amount. I'd rather have half the members with something and a lower mean than have 2 or 3 hits and a higher mean that's skewed.

I agree. I’ve been too burned too many times the last few years with a solid mean. Give more members just showing something as I think that is a stronger storm signal

 

[Myfrotho704_]

?

 

[Chandler]

?View attachment 102776

Turns into a nice storm for NE

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Turns into a nice storm for NE

Oh that wasn’t what I was really showing that for, I’m liking that trend to a further south TPV, and us shoving that ridge more west which opens up options for us later
Oth this is really close for ENC and something that should be watched for those areas

 

[Broken024]

Turns into a nice storm for NE

Yea Boston going to get crushed

 

[wxdaniel]

Oh that wasn’t what I was really showing that for, I’m liking that trend to a further south TPV, and us shoving that ridge more west which opens up options for us later
Oth this is really close for ENC and something that should be watched for those areasView attachment 102777View attachment 102778

So the ULL moving further south to the lower latitues doesnt concern you?

 

[DopplerWx]

Ex

Oh that wasn’t what I was really showing that for, I’m liking that trend to a further south TPV, and us shoving that ridge more west which opens up options for us later
Oth this is really close for ENC and something that should be watched for those areasView attachment 102777View attachment 102778

with the nw trends we have seen it could really come into play for nc being 120hrs out

 

[Myfrotho704_]

So the ULL moving further south to the lower latitues doesnt concern you?

Not really a ULL it’s a piece of the tropospheric polar vortex, I’d definitely want that further south and the cold it carries

 

[Tarheel1]

Congrats to the MA and NE! HECS

 

[Stormlover]

The time to watch https://carolinawxauthority.com/fav...5WVj0FC2iNQ9NZoF5QF6C9OLgB5N5BW2mZKyCJeVozS1k

 

[Storm5]

Congrats to the MA and NE! HECSView attachment 102779

Setting the table


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