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Pattern Januworry

Myfrotho704_ said:
I guess it’s better delayed then denied, that’s a great look with strong high pressure rooted from the Arctic, far out but it’s something to look at I guess, classic CP flow View attachment 102422
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That’s some insanely cold air toward the end of the GFS run. Key word there being “insanely”.


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Myfrotho704_ said:
Um, this warmer trend ? View attachment 102420View attachment 102421
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Not that surprising tbh pac jet extension brought the mean low center into the GOA region, temporary western ridge gets beaten down in time as energy ejects and the whole construct breaks down and releases as the pacific jet retracts and the mean low center reestablishes in the aleutians which renews western ridging and you get the current post D12 super cold. Soooo at least a short period of zonal across Noam is likely where the pv will be titled east or tugged poleward with not much connection to it. Interestingly enough the 0z eps was still building western heights at 360 hr...
 
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SD said:
Not that surprising tbh pac jet extension brought the mean low center into the GOA region, temporary western ridge gets beaten down in time as energy ejects and the whole construct breaks down and releases in time as and pacific jet retracts and the mean low center reestablishes in the aleutians which renews western ridging and you get the current post D12 super cold. Soooo at least a short period of zonal across Noam is likely and the pv will be titled east with not much connection to it.
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Yep, I’m literally not even trying to be a heat miser or whatever I’m getting the rep of, I’m just showing a trend I don’t like, I legitimately want it to snow so bad and it’s frustrating seeing things delay in every possible way, like this week/early next week looked so much better back then until the pacific jet went to Far East and extended to Far East which is still good for cold, but sucks for snow, and now this issue, here’s to hoping that really cold post hour 300 makes it here because that signal is extremely impressive.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep, I’m literally not even trying to be a heat miser or whatever I’m getting the rep of, I’m just showing a trend I don’t like, I legitimately want it to snow so bad and it’s frustrating seeing things delay in every possible way, like this week/early next week looked so much better back then until the pacific jet went to Far East and extended to Far East which is still good for cold, but sucks for snow, and now this issue, here’s to hoping that really cold post hour 300 makes it here because that signal is extremely impressive.
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Yeah I completely understand where you are coming from. As bad as its been here in VA you guys have really gotten the shaft down there the past couple years. I would be frustrated too.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep, I’m literally not even trying to be a heat miser or whatever I’m getting the rep of, I’m just showing a trend I don’t like, I legitimately want it to snow so bad and it’s frustrating seeing things delay in every possible way, like this week/early next week looked so much better back then until the pacific jet went to Far East and extended to Far East which is still good for cold, but sucks for snow, and now this issue, here’s to hoping that really cold post hour 300 makes it here because that signal is extremely impressive.
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Remember the old saying the models rush pattern changes? It's probably some of what we are seeing here but the eps hinted at some of what we are seeing. If you go back to old runs you can see the models were too fast with the Pacific jet retraction and continue to be. As long as the retraction is still going to take place not much reason for concern. Things are delayed, sure, but let's see if they are truly denied
 
I think the take-away ought to be that we have a likelier than normal chance for a generally colder pattern on tap over the coming weeks. There will be brief cold shots (maybe 1-3 days) followed by brief warm-ups. A more sustainable cold pattern (1-2 weeks) may be in the offing. The models are hinting at this. We'll all feel better when that period moves to within 7 days of verification.

That said, anytime in mid-January that you have even 1-3 day cold shots, you have the opportunity for wintry weather. I think we all suspect, and rightly so, that the PV is probably not going to be sitting over PA in 384 hours. The models almost always overdo the magnitude of cold air intrusions within regimes like they're showing beyond hour 300. But those kinds of patterns, if they come to fruition, are frequently below normal.

The bottom line is, even up and down cold periods can provide opportunities for snow. A more sustained cold period seems likely later this month, based on what the models are showing...maybe not bitterly cold, but cold enough. It's a million times better than what they were showing for days on end in December with a raging SE ridge. You certainly can't snow that way.
 
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