Where are you?We've added 3" in the last two hours. 15" total so far.
It’s definitely not a good thing to have the cold constantly forecasted another week/weeks out.I can not remember which poster said this yesterday, but are we concerned about how our "fantasy storm" continues to be pushed later in the month? The poster had a compelling argument. I just can not find the post. We look at how well the pattern is and look for fantasy storms to back up the models? ?
Nah the pattern as a whole can produce at any time for a fairly long duration so seeing storms pop up at different times just showing how conducive the pattern is at producing somethingI can not remember which poster said this yesterday, but are we concerned about how our "fantasy storm" continues to be pushed later in the month? The poster had a compelling argument. I just can not find the post. We look at how well the pattern is and look for fantasy storms to back up the models? ?
Where are you?
I think it started popping up around day 4-5Did the Jan 2-4 winter storm show up 7-10 days out? Seems to me it did not and the pattern wasn't as conducive then. If the pattern is better, which it is, and that pattern holds, which it appears it will, then give it time, something will show up. It's not like it's common to track 10 day winter storms, there not like TCs. Lol
3 days out actually.I think it started popping up around day 4-5
I don't know. The good thing last night/this morning on GEFS looks like the pacific jet stays moderately extended to Hawaii to keep the ridge from retrograding too far west all the way to the end of the run. That's great. But for some reason it seems to me the cold is taking longer and longer to get into the SE, like the ridge axis is just a bit too far west, cold is again stuck out in the west/central US. I would think based on the overall H5, the ridges and conus trough that we'd be in a good spot for cold to spill east, but the GEFS isn't showing it unload. It's holding it back.
Yeah, the cold has been holding back all winter. The continent is flooded with pacific air, and no one S of Chicago has seen snow??I don't know. The good thing last night/this morning on GEFS looks like the pacific jet stays moderately extended to Hawaii to keep the ridge from retrograding too far west all the way to the end of the run. That's great. But for some reason it seems to me the cold is taking longer and longer to get into the SE, like the ridge axis is just a bit too far west, cold is again stuck out in the west/central US. I would think based on the overall H5, the ridges and conus trough that we'd be in a good spot for cold to spill east, but the GEFS isn't showing it unload. It's holding it back. ?
Be interesting if those single digit temps being advertised, verify in the day 10-15 range. Not sure when the last time Greensboro made a run at 0, got in the low single digits. Dont remember if we did past year or 2If the GFS and its ensembles are close to being correct in recent runs, the January 20th-25th looks to be the greatest opportunity for the entire SE to score, event the Deep South. That’s way out there, but should provide us with lots of fun ( and aggravation) tracking over the next couple of weeks. Good luck, and enjoy the ride!
Does anyone have an EPS report? Does it look as favorable as the GEFS?
This is true but we don’t want a huge cold Press either. It’s a delicate balance. I’d personally rather see us flirting with cold than see the hammer.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
It's been a while. Chances are those super cold model runs won't verify. However, it could very well put our area in the sweet spot for a storm when it modifies. This time of the year is when we can score like the mid-atlantic regions do often does when they "steal" our storm. Fun times at the very least.Be interesting if those single digit temps being advertised, verify in the day 10-15 range. Not sure when the last time Greensboro made a run at 0, got in the low single digits. Dont remember if we did past year or 2