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Pattern January thread part deux

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I'm not going to let that suppression look fool me on 12z GFS. As we know, we've seen this many of times.

Edit: 12z CMC has it suppressed too but it is colder than GFS.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
I'm not going to let that suppression look fool me on 12z GFS. As we know, we've seen this many of times.

Edit: 12z CMC has it suppressed too but it is colder than GFS.

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Just one of many possible solutions.


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The 12Z GEFS says there will could be some kind of pretty deep in the Gulf system 1/29-30 going by underneath already established cold air. Just something to watch. It agrees pretty well with the 0Z Euro.

I wonder what the individual members' solutions say for 1/29-30.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z GEFS says there will could be some kind of pretty deep in the Gulf system 1/29-30 going by underneath already established cold air. Just something to watch. It agrees pretty well with the 0Z Euro.

I wonder what the individual members' solutions say for 1/29-30.
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There are many members imo that have the suppressed look.
d437898f0c70e13bde1c63918af3f4d7.png



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GaWx said:
The 12Z GEFS says there will could be some kind of pretty deep in the Gulf system 1/29-30 going by underneath already established cold air. Just something to watch. It agrees pretty well with the 0Z Euro.

I wonder what the individual members' solutions say for 1/29-30.
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The individual members should say
" winter cancel" unless you can score with a clipper! And that takes about 89% of the board out! Guess cold air is good! :(
 
It's very much possible that we see suppression with any GOM disturbances. The start of this pattern does not favor a gulf storm firing up (it'll be during moderation periods that it does and it's just a matter of timing it up when it's slightly moderated and not fully). But it was close. If that disturbance goes more negative tilt, it tries to track favorably for a southeast winter storm.
 
whatalife said:
There are many members imo that have the suppressed look.
d437898f0c70e13bde1c63918af3f4d7.png



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Thks. It looks like ~1/4 of the GEFS members have an actual Miller A low crossing FL peninsula below cold air. Something to monitor for 1/29-30.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Winter cancel. Lol. It's way too far out to even know what it will do. Get it in 100 hours and then we will know!
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Yup, that's why I'm not letting that suppressed look fool me. It's one of the possibilities, yes but it's way too early to say for sure.

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A GOM low can fire up at the end of the frontal boundary. This look, looks just like the past winter event we had earlier this month. (Red line represents frontal boundary)
51b5155a7a24c4fae9a167444410e5e3.jpg


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Tarheel1 said:
The individual members should say
" winter cancel" unless you can score with a clipper! And that takes about 89% of the board out! Guess cold air is good! :(
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lol you must have been looking at a different gefs run

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The EPS' MJO fcast has it going back into the circle 1/26, which is more favorable for cold in the SE vs it staying at the current high amplitude.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
06z GFS was a couple steps beyond what I wanted to see happen in early February and the 12z GFS ended up just being a clipper. It's going to be possible, but it's really threading the needle both ways.

EDIT: The storm in Texas-GOM at 168-198 was a just miss.
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GeorgiaGirl said:
06z GFS was a couple steps beyond what I wanted to see happen in early February and the 12z GFS ended up just being a clipper. It's going to be possible, but it's really threading the needle both ways.

EDIT: The storm in Texas-GOM at 168-198 was a just miss.
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The 12Z Euro still has the deep in the GOM weak wave with some moisture 1/29 though it is even weaker with no sfc low. The 0Z actually had a weak sfc low cross the tip of S FL. Still something to watch for 1/29-30.
 
It badly wants a low, Larry, I've seen it, you've seen it, Ga Girl has seen it...it just needs to ferment, and work it's self into to it. Get the cold air in first, so it's weaker, move the trough west a bit, and bingo. A sure thing, lol. Oh, and a high over head will help...... to keep it cold. T
 
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