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Pattern January thread part deux

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Aside from pattern change, I don't accept ANY wintery musings by the GFS. They're lies, all lies! #FoolMeTwice


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I should add that the 0Z para-GFS also had its own holy wow moment with it quite cold iin the SE US n week #2.
 
GaWx said:
whatalife said:
If 06z goofus is right with that L placement at hr 288 a lot of people will be happy come Feb 1st....LOL! Again it's at hr 288 so take w/a grain of salt.


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 The 6Z GFS is about as holy wow a run as any I've seen recently! Forget the storm. Look at how cold it gets. Of course, all of it is taken with a huge grain, especially with this being way colder than the EPS rund but keep hope alive!
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Yes. I would agree. 06z GEFS also agrees to the cold and stormy pattern. So we'll see what happens moving forward.


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Storm5 said:
omgd the 06z GEFS

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GaWx said:
I should add that the 0Z para-GFS also had its own holy wow moment with it quite cold iin the SE US n week #2.
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Why did you make me look at the para-GFS?  haha

I for one like the clipper train, I usually have a couple to track every winter (false hope most of the time) but haven't had the first clipper this year.....  won't feel like Winter without one
 
06z GFS is an improvement IMO. The 0z Euro just shows cold and dry with maybe some snow showers and flurries mainly across the mountains. We still have a long ways to go. We're at that point where the models show things, lose them and bring them back. Don't get hooked on a model that shows a massive snowstorm because it will change. Also, I lost respect to the GFS after what happened with the last winter event earlier this month.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
06z GFS is an improvement IMO. The 0z Euro just shows cold and dry with maybe some snow showers and flurries mainly across the mountains. We still have a long ways to go. We're at that point where the models show things, lose them and bring them back. Don't get hooked on a model that shows a massive snowstorm because it will change. Also, I lost respect to the GFS after what happened with the last winter event earlier this month.

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I still don't get why people are trashing the gfs for the last event . In reality it's idea was correct all along. It's low placement was a little south but other than that it was the leader of the 3 global models. Models are guidance NOT reality. What people choose to believe is the problem when it comes to winter weather in the south. Should always,always ,always take any snow map with a huge grain of salt , even ones that show a dusting. Snow maps are fun to look at but reality is often far different. People are fast to post snow maps cause they look nice but they don't take the time to pull soundings and check and see exactly what type of precip the model is suggesting. 10 times out 10 snow maps are gonna be wrong even inside 24 hours much less 5 days out especially in the SE

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Storm5 said:
NorthGAWinterWx said:
06z GFS is an improvement IMO. The 0z Euro just shows cold and dry with maybe some snow showers and flurries mainly across the mountains. We still have a long ways to go. We're at that point where the models show things, lose them and bring them back. Don't get hooked on a model that shows a massive snowstorm because it will change. Also, I lost respect to the GFS after what happened with the last winter event earlier this month.

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I still don't get why people are trashing the gfs for the last event . In reality it's idea was correct all along. It's low placement was a little south but other than that it was the leader of the 3 global models. Models are guidance NOT reality. What people choose to believe is the problem when it comes to winter weather in the south. Should always,always ,always take any snow map with a huge grain of salt , even ones that show a dusting. Snow maps are fun to look at but reality is often far different. People are fast to post snow maps cause they look nice but they don't take the time to pull soundings and check and see exactly what type of precip the model is suggesting.  10 times out 10 snow maps are gonna be wrong even inside 24 hours much less 5 days out especially in the SE

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:cool:
 
Storm5 said:
NorthGAWinterWx said:
06z GFS is an improvement IMO. The 0z Euro just shows cold and dry with maybe some snow showers and flurries mainly across the mountains. We still have a long ways to go. We're at that point where the models show things, lose them and bring them back. Don't get hooked on a model that shows a massive snowstorm because it will change. Also, I lost respect to the GFS after what happened with the last winter event earlier this month.

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I still don't get why people are trashing the gfs for the last event . In reality it's idea was correct all along. It's low placement was a little south but other than that it was the leader of the 3 global models. Models are guidance NOT reality. What people choose to believe is the problem when it comes to winter weather in the south. Should always,always ,always take any snow map with a huge grain of salt , even ones that show a dusting. Snow maps are fun to look at but reality is often far different. People are fast to post snow maps cause they look nice but they don't take the time to pull soundings and check and see exactly what type of precip the model is suggesting. 10 times out 10 snow maps are gonna be wrong even inside 24 hours much less 5 days out especially in the SE

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I agree, the GFS indeed have the idea of the event all along. The model started to handle the event very well on the day of the event. It did terrible with the snowfall amounts on the day of the event. CMC, NAM and Euro was more accurate than GFS with the p-type and snowfall amounts. What I'm saying is, the GFS did terrible with p-type and snowfall amounts but it did good with the overall idea.

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Storm5 said:
NorthGAWinterWx said:
06z GFS is an improvement IMO. The 0z Euro just shows cold and dry with maybe some snow showers and flurries mainly across the mountains. We still have a long ways to go. We're at that point where the models show things, lose them and bring them back. Don't get hooked on a model that shows a massive snowstorm because it will change. Also, I lost respect to the GFS after what happened with the last winter event earlier this month.

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Click to expand...
I still don't get why people are trashing the gfs for the last event . In reality it's idea was correct all along. It's low placement was a little south but other than that it was the leader of the 3 global models. Models are guidance NOT reality. What people choose to believe is the problem when it comes to winter weather in the south. Should always,always ,always take any snow map with a huge grain of salt , even ones that show a dusting. Snow maps are fun to look at but reality is often far different. People are fast to post snow maps cause they look nice but they don't take the time to pull soundings and check and see exactly what type of precip the model is suggesting.  10 times out 10 snow maps are gonna be wrong even inside 24 hours much less 5 days out especially in the SE

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Completely agree!  And in some locales it only missed by 50 miles or so.... if we're honest a computer model digesting all the data through all layers of the atmosphere from all over the world days in advance forecasting some type of system within a couple hundred miles should be pretty freaking fantastic.  I think somewhere along the way society as a whole thinks, for some reason or another, that a computer is perfect...... far from it
 
Most computers just do one thing. Crunch numbers. In that respect they are perfect.

It's what humans introduce to crunch that's the problem. Until humans figure out how to control the weather, model algorithms will always be off.
 
Computer models are not perfect in the long run, but with me, I like to correct the model from my thinking from experience of what I've seen in reality of similar outcomes. I'm sure some of the members here have seen me saying, for an example, "that's wrong, it needs to go further north". I say things like that cause that's how I interpret the model into reality of what I think from experience. I'm an amateur, I do winter weather forecasting professionally. I just don't look for entertainment and snow maps.

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Northern stream continues to look very active on this GFS run. While a split flow does try to develop, the pattern most likely favors clippers more than something firing in the southern stream until there's some moderation, IMO.
 
Keep an eye on the energy coming down from Canada into the Rockies at 222-234

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