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Pattern January thread part deux

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It's too early for me to really call this winter. I will say this, I've seen plenty of stretches of 70+ in winter months, I've never seen this in January. I usually see it in December or February. It's incredible, it's like this winter compared to 2015/2016, January has ended up being the December so far.

It also doesn't matter. It can be warm all it wants right now but unless every model has busted hard, we're going to flip to a colder pattern by the last few days of the month and it seems like February is going to be cooler, but the cold snaps will be transient.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
It's too early for me to really call this winter. I will say this, I've seen plenty of stretches of 70+ in winter months, I've never seen this in January. I usually see it in December or February. It's incredible, it's like this winter compared to 2015/2016, January has ended up being the December so far.

It also doesn't matter. It can be warm all it wants right now but unless every model has busted hard, we're going to flip to a colder pattern by the last few days of the month and it seems like February is going to be cooler, but the cold snaps will be transient.

Without a -NAO it's tough for it not to be transient. Would be nice if we could finish the winter with a big storm though.
 
who cares if it's transient? as long as we have cold shots we will have a chance

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Storm5 said:
who cares if it's transient?  as long as we have cold shots we will have a chance

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True. We have had some good quick hitting storms with transient cold. Just have to time it right.
 
Storm5 said:
who cares if it's transient?  as long as we have cold shots we will have a chance

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I'm starting to enjoy transient cold shots, easier on the heating bill and throw in a winter system threat or two and perfect....   besides more times not if the cold isn't transient it's probably cold and dry
 
metwannabe said:
Storm5 said:
who cares if it's transient?  as long as we have cold shots we will have a chance

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I'm starting to enjoy transient cold shots, easier on the heating bill and throw in a winter system threat or two and perfect....   besides more times not if the cold isn't transient it's probably cold and dry
check your pm

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Forgetting looking at potential times to look for a storm to develop for a minute...this is the kind of pattern that I think is going to set up and all that's going to matter is if the timing works out in the long haul. It does moderate but it doesn't go back to the ridiculousness that has been this little over a two week period we've been in.
 
Been saying (elsewhere) since Oct 1 that Feb will be the cool to cold and damp to wet month - based that on the tropics (this summer analogues based on the storms that formed and where they went - 1964 and 1985 being my lead years), and MJO and SOI (as they fluctuated based on prior years) - sort of a trend line analysis by someone who doesn't know any better (!!!), and I'm sticking with that until proven wrong! So far, Nov, Dec and Jan (so far this month anyway) have pretty well worked out. I think folks pay too much long range attention to the NAO, AO and PNA etc. (though important - IMHO they are obviously important indices in the 10 - 15 day range), but the tropics seem to "carry more weight" in long range looking.
 
Wow latest GFS run is really good for Tennessee and really a good portion of all the southeast looks good.

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I wasn't sure if it was a good idea to post this here or the severe weather thread...but any way...all of the NAM high res models are showing a 973mb low which is a 28.73 pressure reading...that mb is classified as a Cat. 2 hurricane. WOW! Look at the squall line too...amazing!
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Yea the severe thread

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