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Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I predict a happy Mitch in the morning
Here we go. Much better run!
Hahahahahahahahah
Oh man
NBAcentel
Member
Both the AIGFS/GFS west. AIGFS just a tad to warm, but screw it. Get the QPF in
wow
Member
Huzzah!
NBAcentel
Member
We’ve got some gulf origins now. This really ain’t done is it..
I'd say we have no freaking idea what is going to happen even in five days!
jetstream30
Member
Surprised more precipitation was not in western NC
Ha it’s hitting the ArkLaTex benchmark there with the western endpoint of our wave, but it launches too much vorticity / energy northeast up into NY. If it would just maintain the structure their at the base of the trough, we’d have more storm. Good run though
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Surface still catching up to 500mb
you know he sneaks a peek when he gets up to pee
rburrel2
Member
ukie has a nuke just off hatteras at hr120…
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Can you see the precip shield yet?
NCSNOW
Member
We got it west. Now figure out how to keep it consolidated all the way through, lucky neg tilt, pivot.
Just a little bit of luck, just a little bit.
And all the toilets in the land shall be named, Spann.
And all the toilets in the land shall be named, Spann.
rburrel2
Member
Nah just the crummy French maps until 11:45 or so.
NBAcentel
Member
In the past I do recall Nw trending on storms associated with no NATL blocking in response to slowing/more western Atlantic ridging. This could be another case here. Wouldn’t shock me if it continues and continues 
HailCore
Member
And if that first system was too far east for your liking, then behold round 2 at 150hrs out. 
I would imagine if it trends too far west, y’all will end up with rain, as the southerly flow sends in warm air, atleast aloft it would!?
Just in case some folks miss out on the first two systems. My system #3 has entered the room.
we don’t like this one? Like at all?
CMC in the warmer camp. (that's novel) And 24 hours earlier???
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AI GFS snow on SV
It’s early. But GEFS may have some support for the op based on this trend 
Let’s just keep doing what we’re doing and let this go from coastal development to gulf as the primary. Although that could get warm quick idgad
idgad
GFS has similar temps for Saturday 12z — the difference is the timing.
NBAcentel
Member
Weenie fuel 
So that’s the Saturday deal - the wave 2 / storm 2. The only show in town south and east of the Apps is on Sunday (wave 3 / storm 3) - CMC keeps that one offshore / non-existent as it kind of wraps all the wave energy up into wave 2, similar to the Icon
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Yeah, I just noticed that and edited my post. A day earlier!
The cmc and its regional counterpart have precip out ahead of main shortwave. Would be possibility for a 1-2 punch with that setup but other models not showing that so far.
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It's because the models are showing two different setups. The ensembles showed this too. One is mostly prefrontal(CMC) the other is overrunning(GFS). The former will always be mostly rain.
But all that said, the CMC also has a subtropical-tropical storm threatening the Baja before being injected into the pattern so yeah.
NCSNOW
Member
Out to hour 36 on pivotal