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Pattern January Joke

NBAcentel said:
Might be a higher chance of getting single digits/negatives in the SE then snow with this look… the analogs popping up for the -AO are all truly cold centric, some snowed, even good ones, but the focus was the extreme cold. This look is infamous for putting a cold lobe of mid-low level cold air into NA and separating it from the Arctic
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What are the analogs? I figure Jan 85 would be one of them


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NBAcentel said:
Might be a higher chance of getting single digits/negatives in the SE then snow with this look… the analogs popping up for the -AO are all truly cold centric, some snowed, even good ones, but the focus was the extreme cold. This look is infamous for putting a cold lobe of mid-low level cold air into NA and separating it from the Arctic
Click to expand...
Its got a little snow on the front end of the cold flavor to it with the trough axis coming back east before bottoming out
 
NBAcentel said:
Might be a higher chance of getting single digits/negatives in the SE then snow with this look… the analogs popping up for the -AO are all truly cold centric, some snowed, even good ones, but the focus was the extreme cold. This look is infamous for putting a cold lobe of mid-low level cold air into NA and separating it from the Arctic
Click to expand...
Yeah the GFS AI shows that well
 
The 1/18/26 potential SE snowstorm looks like it will be during a moderate amp MJO phase 6, a strong +PNA, a neutral to moderately -AO, slightly + to neutral NAO, -WPO, and a very strong -EPO, which may be sub -3 then.

So, the highlight is strong +PNA/-EPO during a phase 6.
 
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My untrained eye, I see a 4 contour closed lp up north of Toronto that pops up on Fro' s nam loop last frame. Looks like itss blocking flow and causing more west , sw dive of our shortwave. Has to be cause. Pac ridge looks about same.
 
Chazwin said:
I’ve always heard from some that while the long range NAM is useless for looking at surface output, it can be fairly helpful at H5
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Always believed it's not too shabby at 60 or so for H5. Trust it more in it's wheelhouse space though <48hrs
 
Chazwin said:
I’ve always heard from some that while the long range NAM is useless for looking at surface output, it can be fairly helpful at H5
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And CAD Thermals in a miller B. Most times can be money splitting the avg qpf AND track of EURO/GFS and using NAM thermals atleast in NC piedmont area around CLT
 
SnowmasterATL said:
I don't think the thermals will be a problem. maybe just a blip but I think the cold is settled in.
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Unfortunately I think the opposite with this. It may end up working out briefly with that first energy for higher elevations. But this thing has quite a warm nose and a CAD that just isn't quite strong enough. Especially with the warm nose. It's the 2nd part of the energy that's interesting. Surpressed right now but it's not a "lost cause"
 
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