Pattern January Joke

[GaWx]

The 1/18/26 potential SE snowstorm looks like it will be during a moderate amp MJO phase 6, a strong +PNA, a neutral to moderately -AO, slightly + to neutral NAO, -WPO, and a very strong -EPO, which may be sub -3 then.

So, the highlight is strong +PNA/-EPO during a phase 6.

 

[Rain Cold]

View attachment 183079

I hate the long range NAM so much, but that is a SIGNIFICANT move.

 

[NCSNOW]

My untrained eye, I see a 4 contour closed lp up north of Toronto that pops up on Fro' s nam loop last frame. Looks like itss blocking flow and causing more west , sw dive of our shortwave. Has to be cause. Pac ridge looks about same.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

That two-contour ULL is diving south along the N. Dakota/Minnesota border. IDK if it will be able to back the flow extrapolated with the mean trough as east as it is, but I like seeing that feature still.

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

NAM is the king of tilt

Man as much as I want to trust the NAM it's tough. It's been a long time since a "NAM'D" run. It just feels like its bound to eventually happen.

 

[Chazwin]

I hate the long range NAM so much, but that is a SIGNIFICANT move.

I’ve always heard from some that while the long range NAM is useless for looking at surface output, it can be fairly helpful at H5

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Much work still to do. There's an awful lot of dry air around behind the front.

 

[CaryWx]

I’ve always heard from some that while the long range NAM is useless for looking at surface output, it can be fairly helpful at H5

Always believed it's not too shabby at 60 or so for H5. Trust it more in it's wheelhouse space though <48hrs

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Significant westward jump on the early RGEM

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Positive trends continue with the early regionals.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Of course, thermals become a problem for the deep south.

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

Of course, thermals become a problem for the deep south.View attachment 183087

I would still keep a bit of an eye on the CAD placement for Upstate SC, Highest Elevations of NE GA, and NC.

 

[SnowmasterATL]

Of course, thermals become a problem for the deep south.View attachment 183087

I don't think the thermals will be a problem. maybe just a blip but I think the cold is settled in.

 

[GaWx]

Of course, thermals become a problem for the deep south.View attachment 183087

Location, location, location…

 

[xshare]

Of course, thermals become a problem for the deep south.View attachment 183087

Yeah this rain comes through right during where we warm up on Saturday, and then it’s been mostly dry when it’s cold enough to Snow (Thursday, Sunday) here in ATL.

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

I’ve always heard from some that while the long range NAM is useless for looking at surface output, it can be fairly helpful at H5

And CAD Thermals in a miller B. Most times can be money splitting the avg qpf AND track of EURO/GFS and using NAM thermals atleast in NC piedmont area around CLT

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

I don't think the thermals will be a problem. maybe just a blip but I think the cold is settled in.

Unfortunately I think the opposite with this. It may end up working out briefly with that first energy for higher elevations. But this thing has quite a warm nose and a CAD that just isn't quite strong enough. Especially with the warm nose. It's the 2nd part of the energy that's interesting. Surpressed right now but it's not a "lost cause"

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

I would still keep a bit of an eye on the CAD placement for Upstate SC, Highest Elevations of NE GA, and NC.

Maybe. Verbatim, the SW surface winds flood in warm air.

 

[NBAcentel]

lol

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

Location, location, location…

That and the more jacked this thing becomes the closer the line will be temp wise..... Ive always said best place to be is on the line gotta ride the line and play with fire to see best rates

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Yeah this rain comes through right during where we warm up on Saturday, and then it’s been mostly dry when it’s cold enough to Snow (Thursday, Sunday) here in ATL.

Other modeling has snow down to the Florida panhandle in some cases. I love the westward trend on both the NAM and RGEM, but the trough also needs to be deep enough. Details yet to be determined.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

We need the rain.

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

Other modeling has snow down to the Florida panhandle in some cases. I love the westward trend on both the NAM and RGEM, but the trough also needs to be deep enough. Details yet to be determined.

Historically these systems tend to tick NW although things can change. But we are kind of seeing that general trend right now.

 

[SnowmasterATL]

No Bueno from the ICON for the deep south.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Geez.

 

[SnowmasterATL]

Geez.
View attachment 183091

ICON was a warm run!

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

I’ve been trying to avoid posting, but ya gotta love it here…not.

Light precip is actually there on the icon for that possible weekend deal and it’s in the 40’s in the state of GA with it there.

 

[SnowmasterATL]

I’ve been trying to avoid posting, but ya gotta love it here…not.

Light precip is actually there on the icon for that possible weekend deal and it’s in the 40’s in the state of GA with it there.

Warm run from a cold bias model... geez! give us a break! hopefully we can trend colder. but again, it is the ICON.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Warm run from a cold bias model... geez! give us a break! hopefully we can trend colder. but again, it is the ICON.

icon is far from a cold bias model. In fact, it typically runs too warm at the surface.

 

[accu35]

@90 0z gfs energy little west

 

[Xlhunter3]

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

The westward shift is across all models so far. The GFS has a much broader trough along with some energy diving down the backside. This will be a colder run than the ICON. Let's see where we go.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

we all about to get rained on aren’t we?

 

[KyloG]

Uh oh…

 

[jackendrickwx]

I predict a happy Mitch in the morning

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Here we go. Much better run!

 

[jackendrickwx]

Hahahahahahahahah

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

omgaw @GaWx

 

[jrips27]

Oh man

 

[NBAcentel]

Both the AIGFS/GFS west. AIGFS just a tad to warm, but screw it. Get the QPF in