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Pattern January Joke

NBAcentel said:
Might be a higher chance of getting single digits/negatives in the SE then snow with this look… the analogs popping up for the -AO are all truly cold centric, some snowed, even good ones, but the focus was the extreme cold. This look is infamous for putting a cold lobe of mid-low level cold air into NA and separating it from the Arctic
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What are the analogs? I figure Jan 85 would be one of them


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NBAcentel said:
Might be a higher chance of getting single digits/negatives in the SE then snow with this look… the analogs popping up for the -AO are all truly cold centric, some snowed, even good ones, but the focus was the extreme cold. This look is infamous for putting a cold lobe of mid-low level cold air into NA and separating it from the Arctic
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Its got a little snow on the front end of the cold flavor to it with the trough axis coming back east before bottoming out
 
NBAcentel said:
Might be a higher chance of getting single digits/negatives in the SE then snow with this look… the analogs popping up for the -AO are all truly cold centric, some snowed, even good ones, but the focus was the extreme cold. This look is infamous for putting a cold lobe of mid-low level cold air into NA and separating it from the Arctic
Click to expand...
Yeah the GFS AI shows that well
 
The 1/18/26 potential SE snowstorm looks like it will be during a moderate amp MJO phase 6, a strong +PNA, a neutral to moderately -AO, slightly + to neutral NAO, -WPO, and a very strong -EPO, which may be sub -3 then.

So, the highlight is strong +PNA/-EPO during a phase 6.
 
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My untrained eye, I see a 4 contour closed lp up north of Toronto that pops up on Fro' s nam loop last frame. Looks like itss blocking flow and causing more west , sw dive of our shortwave. Has to be cause. Pac ridge looks about same.
 
SnowmasterATL said:
I don't think the thermals will be a problem. maybe just a blip but I think the cold is settled in.
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Unfortunately I think the opposite with this. It may end up working out briefly with that first energy for higher elevations. But this thing has quite a warm nose and a CAD that just isn't quite strong enough. Especially with the warm nose. It's the 2nd part of the energy that's interesting. Surpressed right now but it's not a "lost cause"
 
xshare said:
Yeah this rain comes through right during where we warm up on Saturday, and then it’s been mostly dry when it’s cold enough to Snow (Thursday, Sunday) here in ATL.
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Other modeling has snow down to the Florida panhandle in some cases. I love the westward trend on both the NAM and RGEM, but the trough also needs to be deep enough. Details yet to be determined.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Other modeling has snow down to the Florida panhandle in some cases. I love the westward trend on both the NAM and RGEM, but the trough also needs to be deep enough. Details yet to be determined.
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Historically these systems tend to tick NW although things can change. But we are kind of seeing that general trend right now.
 
I’ve been trying to avoid posting, but ya gotta love it here…not.

Light precip is actually there on the icon for that possible weekend deal and it’s in the 40’s in the state of GA with it there.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I’ve been trying to avoid posting, but ya gotta love it here…not.

Light precip is actually there on the icon for that possible weekend deal and it’s in the 40’s in the state of GA with it there.
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Warm run from a cold bias model... geez! give us a break! hopefully we can trend colder. but again, it is the ICON.
 
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