Pattern January Joke

[Mitch West]

The 18z Euro gotta deliver. Please. End the day on a roll. Do not be an idiot.

 

[CaryWx]

That might have been the run of the year. If we can back into one of these advertised high pressure dominated patterns we might actually have a legitimate shotView attachment 182995

That's a too warm run for mby

 

[malak05]

18z

12z

6z


The pattern still lighter across region but look how far west the Ensemble now stretches to the West and South compared to early runs you can see just how returns have trended

 

[Mitch West]

Goodness lol

 

[Webberweather53]

Still though. Man View attachment 182959

Just need the pattern to be “close enough” to have a good shot at overrunning

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Just need the pattern to be “close enough” to have a good shot at overrunning

Webber sighting... Share with us what you think will happen ...

 

[broken025]

Think I may need to make a trip to Pittsburgh

 

[griteater]

One of my rules with trying to get a setup to work is that you need pretty good confidence that either the storm or the cold air is going to be there. If you're fighting for both to show up, you're in trouble. In this case for Sunday, we appear to be in pretty good shape for it to be cold enough for snow for a good chunk of the forum thanks to the first 2 waves moving thru on Wed-Thu and Saturday and pressing the baroclinic zone / cold-warm boundary SE to a spot along the coast. Just need to see additional trends with the wave dropping down from NDakota into the Deep South Sat-Sun and ideally have it dig boldly in positive tilt into Texarkana, then have it jerk neutral as it swings thru the SE.

 

[NBAcentel]

 

[SnowmasterATL]

The 12Z EPS for SAV has gotten my attention for the small chance of Sun AM light snow/flurries, which in this area would be a big deal due to the relative rarity being that most winters get nothing. My expectations are low due to climo, it being pretty dry overall with member qpf progs being light, and marginal temps.

So, fwiw, here are some 12Z EPS images: ~25% of members have snow, which is notably high:
View attachment 183020

Mean: 0.2”, notable for here:
View attachment 183021

GaWX, can you do Atlanta's? thank you

 

[POWERSTROKE]

Think I may need to make a trip to Pittsburgh
View attachment 183041

Just came back from there today. Had a dusting in the ground

 

[jackendrickwx]

continued slowing trend from the ECMWF but man, give me some neg tilt

 

[NBAcentel]

 

[NCSNOW]

Euro is right where we need it. Like jack said, go neg tilt right there in that spot and it will be a history maker for a lot of us. But man that euro looks good h5
Look how much better consolidaTed all the energy ends up

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

View attachment 183047

Trending better. 18Z clips the NC coast. We have 4-5 days to trend better. We absolutely can not afford a reversal of the good trends over the 24 hours.

 

[Parker]

Man I love the looks of these

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

The system behind system #2 continues to be intriguing. Once again, back this one southwestward with time, and we get to play this game again.

 

[rburrel2]

This is easily going to go down as the best AO/NAO blocking winter we've had in at least a decade. Really hard not to be over the top excited about the end of the month with how the pacific is setting up in combination with the blockiness up top.

 

[griteater]

Hey man - yeah EPS & Eur Wk look pretty poor after next week. GFS & CMC Suites not as bad with some cold to our north. MJO / Trop forcing look good, not a red flag. Biggest concern I see is what looks to be a decent -EAMT event in about a week which would want to retract the jet in the following week, and a lot of times the models don’t catch on with that until we get closer in…but that would lower our chances at seeing the western ridging we need for cold. Ever evolving, we’ll see how it goes

Coming back to this from Friday, the favorable tropical forcing / MJO appear to be driving the improving model trends for the last week of January. Euro suite in particular is keeping the Pac Jet nice and extended out at the end of their runs. Let's see if the trends can continue and if we can marry cold with storm.


Here is Euro Weekly run from today vs 4 days ago for Jan 29







-VP uplift working west even here at the Dateline in the tropical Pacific (El Nino like look here)

 

[SD]

Coming back to this from Friday, the favorable tropical forcing / MJO appear to be driving the improving model trends for the last week of January. Euro suite in particular is keeping the Pac Jet nice and extended out at the end of their runs. Let's see if the trends can continue and if we can marry cold with storm.


Here is Euro Weekly run from today vs 4 days ago for Jan 29

View attachment 183051

View attachment 183052



-VP uplift working west even here at the Dateline in the tropical Pacific (El Nino like look here)

View attachment 183054


View attachment 183055

4 more weeks...
4 more weeks...

Seriously though phases 2 and 3 aren't bad in Feb. I have a total dumpster fire pattern after roughly valentines day but its off to the races until then

 

[SD]

4 more weeks...
4 more weeks...

Seriously though phases 2 and 3 aren't bad in Feb. I have a total dumpster fire pattern after roughly valentines day but its off to the races until then

To add to this I could be easily talked into cold lasting longer but as some point the mjo has to get back into the MC... right?

 

[NBAcentel]

You’d think we start getting increases across the board if it continues, even if the tilt isn’t great

 

[SD]

That gfs run just about went full Guy Fieri

 

[jackendrickwx]

1-25 are generally dry

 

[NBAcentel]

I’d imagine if this continues, even with a positively tilted shortwave, you start to turn this into a truer WAA setup with more widespread overrunning precipitation vs a late bloomer appearance

 

[GaWx]

GaWX, can you do Atlanta's? thank you

ATL snow by member 12Z EPS:

 

[griteater]

Alternate view of SW trend on the Euro Ens Mean - last 6 runs. Still 5 days to Sunday (long time)