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Pattern January Joke

Was looking through some of my screenshots from last winter and found this beauty. The greatest model run I've ever seen for South Florida

21Pm3tI.png
 
rburrel2 said:
All of the means have snow noise at the end of their runs now.

EPS, GEFS, cmce, AIFS means all showing activity.

And they all look excellent in terms of the 5h field.
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The models have been taking baby steps forward today. Lets see if these baby steps continue until some of us will be dancing a victory dance.
 
We've seen times before where we keep getting better looks for part of our setup, but nothing panned out in the end. We weren't necessarily grasping at straws, but the negatives outweighed the positives in the end. I'm not sure how much better we can trend at this point??? However, if anyone in the SE outside of the upslope areas sees some accumulating snow, that's not all bad. I do hope that the bigger threat down the road can pan out (no ice storm though).
 
packfan98 said:
We've seen times before where we keep getting better looks for part of our setup, but nothing panned out in the end. We weren't necessarily grasping at straws, but the negatives outweighed the positives in the end. I'm not sure how much better we can trend at this point??? However, if anyone in the SE outside of the upslope areas sees some accumulating snow, that's not all bad. I do hope that the bigger threat down the road can pan out (no ice storm though).
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Ice sort of sucks on its own unless it’s the mid/lower 20’s kind. Light prolonged drizzle with no runoff and everything freezes up nicely. Yeah with that comes problems but there are also big problems with heavy wet snow and we all love that. I’ll take a sleet storm at this point as long as nobody within 500 miles of me sees snow while I’m getting sleeted on
 
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Seeing an area like Dothan, Alabama with a mean like this just tells me that the gulf is being tapped on 20% of the members. Most will laugh this off but the look is still there. Until we lose this completely then you won’t lose me on this threat at all. It was a very slight improvement from 00z
 
HRRR trolling again. I actually saw snow fall last month with one system, that the HRRR was the only model showing it. This is closer to a bigger deal, razor thin, maybe nothing, maybe something.... not throwing in the towel that's for sure
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Not that it means anything at all, but the GFS has been sort of on a hot streak with the Thursday wave as well favoring eastern NC


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packfan98 said:
For what it's worth, the nam looks a little more juiced up for Thursday. Extra little kink in the vort map makes it look interesting anyway.
1768424400-LdzXTLG2VjA.png

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Agreed esp parts of Alabama and west georgia look juiced up for some backend flakes to me.
 
rburrel2 said:
All of the means have snow noise at the end of their runs now.

EPS, GEFS, cmce, AIFS means all showing activity.

And they all look excellent in terms of the 5h field.
Click to expand...
Yep, time to give it our best shot for glory thus far this winter / or go down swinging. Euro weeklies here for Jan 26 to Feb 2. We should have a better shot at some periods of high pressure to our north over the Lakes in this pattern

Jan 13 Euro Wk 500.png

Jan 13 Euro Wk 850.png

Jan 13 Euro Wk Sfc.png

Jan 13 Euro Wk Sfc P.png

Jan 13 Euro Wk Precip.png
 
new weathernext, i would assume it also just barely ticked pos tilt resulting in this bit drier solution. you can see it trying in GA

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