The 18z Euro gotta deliver. Please. End the day on a roll. Do not be an idiot.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
That's a too warm run for mby
Goodness lol
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Just need the pattern to be “close enough” to have a good shot at overrunning
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Webber sighting... Share with us what you think will happen ...
broken025
Member
Think I may need to make a trip to Pittsburgh
One of my rules with trying to get a setup to work is that you need pretty good confidence that either the storm or the cold air is going to be there. If you're fighting for both to show up, you're in trouble. In this case for Sunday, we appear to be in pretty good shape for it to be cold enough for snow for a good chunk of the forum thanks to the first 2 waves moving thru on Wed-Thu and Saturday and pressing the baroclinic zone / cold-warm boundary SE to a spot along the coast. Just need to see additional trends with the wave dropping down from NDakota into the Deep South Sat-Sun and ideally have it dig boldly in positive tilt into Texarkana, then have it jerk neutral as it swings thru the SE.
NBAcentel
Member
SnowmasterATL
Member
GaWX, can you do Atlanta's? thank you
Just came back from there today. Had a dusting in the ground
continued slowing trend from the ECMWF but man, give me some neg tilt
NBAcentel
Member
NCSNOW
Member
Euro is right where we need it. Like jack said, go neg tilt right there in that spot and it will be a history maker for a lot of us. But man that euro looks good h5
Look how much better consolidaTed all the energy ends up
Look how much better consolidaTed all the energy ends up
Trending better. 18Z clips the NC coast. We have 4-5 days to trend better. We absolutely can not afford a reversal of the good trends over the 24 hours.
Man I love the looks of these
The system behind system #2 continues to be intriguing. Once again, back this one southwestward with time, and we get to play this game again.
rburrel2
Member
This is easily going to go down as the best AO/NAO blocking winter we've had in at least a decade. Really hard not to be over the top excited about the end of the month with how the pacific is setting up in combination with the blockiness up top.
Coming back to this from Friday, the favorable tropical forcing / MJO appear to be driving the improving model trends for the last week of January. Euro suite in particular is keeping the Pac Jet nice and extended out at the end of their runs. Let's see if the trends can continue and if we can marry cold with storm.
Here is Euro Weekly run from today vs 4 days ago for Jan 29
-VP uplift working west even here at the Dateline in the tropical Pacific (El Nino like look here)
4 more weeks...
4 more weeks...
Seriously though phases 2 and 3 aren't bad in Feb. I have a total dumpster fire pattern after roughly valentines day but its off to the races until then
NBAcentel
Member
You’d think we start getting increases across the board if it continues, even if the tilt isn’t great 
That gfs run just about went full Guy Fieri
1-25 are generally dry
NBAcentel
Member
I’d imagine if this continues, even with a positively tilted shortwave, you start to turn this into a truer WAA setup with more widespread overrunning precipitation vs a late bloomer appearance 
Alternate view of SW trend on the Euro Ens Mean - last 6 runs. Still 5 days to Sunday (long time)
I have about 9/25 hits of various amounts on that set of panels.
Maybe a baker's dozen (13?) if I want to count every potential flake
Last edited:
Watch the ens. mean H5 trough trend showing a trend WSW as of storm #2 crucial time: if this continues some would like and others wouldn’t as is normally the case since we live all over: regardless, what an absolutely beautiful +PNA!
EPS: last 5 runs through 18Z
GEFS: last 4 runs through 18Z
EPS: last 5 runs through 18Z
GEFS: last 4 runs through 18Z
AJ1013
Member
I got my snow fix last week in Squaw Valley (4ft in two days on top of a healthy snowpack) so I' rooting for you guys now. That being said a Miller B that doesn't give me any cool air would be disappointing to say the least...
shortstopsergio
Member
You and me both
that’s my hometown!
Fwiw, NBM improving.... just shows some models are heading right direction. Potential is there
Xlhunter3
Member
HRRR drying up the precipitation. To no one's surprise.
NBAcentel
Member
Yea completed doubted its outputs earlier, didn’t even bat an eye to them tbh lol. LR hrrr is pretty bad
NBAcentel
Member
That’s a monster -AO…. It’s gonna get really really cold if this looks stays. 
Yeah that is pretty legit. If we could just activate the STJ at all. But that ridge axis out west is not bad. Just need a little less chaotic flow.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Yeah it’s a big time cold signal…12z EPS had an almost -2 sigma 2m temp anomaly late January centered over the Great Lakes.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
NBAcentel
Member
Might be a higher chance of getting single digits/negatives in the SE then snow with this look… the analogs popping up for the -AO are all truly cold centric, some snowed, even good ones, but the focus was the extreme cold. This look is infamous for putting a cold lobe of mid-low level cold air into NA and separating it from the Arctic
LongRanger
Member
If we don't snow with this pattern we may never see snow again
My biggest concern about this pattern has been it getting too overbearing to snow more than many other potential fails