Pattern January Joke

[Showmeyourtds]

UKMET soundings under the Pivotal 'rain' on the northern GA/AL border.View attachment 182698

I looked at all of the upper air temps & maps. & everything aloft supported snow with nominal at best boundary layer temps down to Atlanta. I don't normally look at the UKMET, but I wonder if it has some kind of graphical resolution trigger that automatically defaults to rain when the temperature isn't at or below 0C

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Max says we’re in. We ride

 

[Arcc]

View attachment 182719
Of course the PV is really trending closer and stronger in southeast Canada. Not sure how that helps for first or second system.

Seeing those heights trend higher over the NE is a good thing.

 

[Rain Cold]

Orientation looks better than 6z. Dig!!
View attachment 182720

I don't know if the big L is my favorite

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I don't know if the big L is my favorite

You don’t want the backward tilted L a week out. Come on RC!

 

[jackendrickwx]

euro is dry

 

[jrips27]

I don't know if the big L is my favorite

Yeah I was looking at the wrong part of the wave my bad. Looks pretty similar to 6z euro orientation overall so probably will be dry

 

[LongRanger]

Max says we’re in. We rideView attachment 182721

Well what the heck is he going off of? Models are all over the place

 

[Mitch West]

Euro bringing some moisture in earlier.

 

[LukeBarrette]

Lets give the Great Lakes its 25th clipper of the season!!!

 

[jeremyt]

Euro bringing some moisture in earlier. View attachment 182722

I’d err on the side of caution as what has been forecasted and what has hit the ground has been skewed the past 6 months or more!

 

[BullCityWx]

Euro has a major event later in the month.

 

[accu35]

Euro did moist up a bit more this run but came in earlier.

 

[CaryWx]

Euro has a major event later in the month.

Same as what gfs had yesterday around the 24th?

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Unlike the UKMET and GFS, the EURO rolls over the top of the PNA ridge and sends the trailing vorticity maximum to Hudson Bay rather than diving it southward. That second piece of energy is key, and the westernmost entry progged by the UKMET is ideal.

 

[jeremyt]

Euro has a major event later in the month.

Don’t they all! Not trying to be a doubter but the can always gets kicked. We can’t seem to score if conditions are perfect, there is always a wrench thrown in!

 

[Mitch West]

Dry or wet CAD.

 

[NBAcentel]

Unlike the UKMET and GFS, the EURO rolls over the top of the PNA ridge and sends the trailing vorticity maximum to Hudson Bay rather than diving it southward. That second piece of energy is key,View attachment 182725View attachment 182726View attachment 182727 and the westernmost entry progged by the UKMET is ideal.

Ridge rolling over has been probably the number 1 killer in a otherwise good pattern recently, going back to last winter

 

[accu35]

We still have all week to figure this out. See y’all at 18z

 

[AJ1013]

Canadian model temps Monday morning View attachment 182711

42F here and 57F in Orlando? Seems unlikely lol

 

[Mitch West]

Dry or wet CAD. View attachment 182730

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

View attachment 182731

Seen modeled a lot lately. GFS has shown it several times from the 22nd forward

 

[Tsappfrog20]

View attachment 182731

I’m starving for anything although I did see snow at my house this winter however I don’t know if I want all the ice . It would be fun sledding though!


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[KyloG]

Tough not to like where the pattern is headed to end January into Feb.

 

[Rain Cold]

Ridge rolling over has been probably the number 1 killer in a otherwise good pattern recently, going back to last winter

I know I harp on roll-over ridges, but I just don't like them. Plus, they have a tendency to break off and become donuts, sending the cold air back west into the Pacific.

 

[Arcc]

I don't hate it.

 

[Stormlover]

Euro has a major event later in the month.

huh?

 

[RBR71]

huh? View attachment 182735

 

[iGRXY]

huh? View attachment 182735

It’s an ice event in the CAD regions of Ne Georgia, SC, NC

 

[Arcc]

I mean...

 

[Mitch West]

 

[Tbean37]

Loving what the ens are straying to show starting 25th Jan told grit I thought that was going be the best chances for snow between Jan 27 through Feb 10th

 

[Stevo24]

Loving what the ens are straying to show starting 25th Jan told grit I thought that was going be the best chances for snow between Jan 27 through Feb 10th

That’s what we said about this time coming up too. Nothing you can do with there’s no moisture to work with no matter how good the pattern is.

 

[Mitch West]

The current EPS running is COLD. Huge adjustments.

 

[Mitch West]

That’s what we said about this time coming up too. Nothing you can do with there’s no moisture to work with no matter how good the pattern is.

Yeh but the first step is always getting the cold. Just an age old rule.

 

[packfan98]

The current EPS running is COLD. Huge adjustments.

Same on the AI EPS

 

[Mitch West]

 

[Tbean37]

That’s what we said about this time coming up too. Nothing you can do with there’s no moisture to work with no matter how good the pattern is.

That’s what we said about this time coming up too. Nothing you can do with there’s no moisture to work with no matter how good the pattern is.

If you follow content weather guy formally cranky on twitter the next ridge pops up in that time frame on west coast should be stronger longer lived than this first one also mjo being and 7-8 and La Niña dying I think stj will be more active in that period

 

[trackersacker]

View attachment 182743

Gotta be phase 8 going to work

 

[NBAcentel]

Yeah the EPS/AIFS ends off with another returning +PNA/pac trof, along with blocking. Never ending cycle of close call torture