NBAcentel
Member
So fickle. Honestly if the AIFS ens follows its OP, I’m not exactly gonna be swayed by the euro. I noticed the AIFS shorter term trends in winter storms last winter were often very on point
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Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Euro is no go for storm 2 as well. Takes low across the Great Lakes
It's my fav model in the offseason, just watching it for outdoor activities / rain etc. Not enough winter experience with it this season lol
accu35
Member
There’s not a lick of moisture with the second system. New runs tomorrow folks. Goodnight
NCWeatherNow
Member
NBAcentel
Member
Big red flag for the drier models for late next week. Normally when the AIFS/ECM graphcast start mirroring each other, they become rather consistent 
Man we gotta get that second timeframe back. Thats the back up plan for many. It sucked losing that overnight. Another day of tracking ahead..
NBAcentel
Member
Pretty amazing how small those changes with the northern stream reflect at the sfc… I hate setups like this 
NCWeatherNow
Member
We still got around a week to reel that 2nd system in, I wouldnt worry too much at this range. But it is something we have to keep an eye on.
packfan98
Moderator
Let’s start the morning with something positive. The 6z GEFS AI looks more excited for the first system.
packfan98
Moderator
And probably not a coincidence that the second system looks better as well.
packfan98
Moderator
And the bad news is that the regular GEFS trended the opposite direction and is drier for both systems.
NBAcentel
Member
Man only if we could slow this thing down with this amplification trend… 
packfan98
Moderator
Yeah, liked like slight improvements with the 6z euro and Euro AI with the upper features, but no improvements at the surface. It’s not going to take many tweaks to get us something for one of those systems.
Follow up energy on the 06z Euro looked pretty solid 
NBAcentel
Member
Yeah this is a lot of jumps at H5 still for the range it’s at… gotta hope we jump to something good within the next 2 days. Looks like we should start getting better data on the energy starting around sun evening-Mon morning.
I think slowing down and going ham with the northern stream sort of like Jan 2018 is still on the table here… that one had a lot of changes on modeling even till the day of due to how difficult it is for models to grasp the northern branch. If we want to dig that thing more, I’d say strengthen the northern periphery of the PNA ridge and lean it negative tilt more to dive the northern stream wave equatorward
Either way, Thursday 
That basically appears to be the only shot. I wish we had some blocking. We'll need to stop running energy across the top of the Pac ridge or things will just end up being too progressive.
We're still in the game, which is good. But we don't have a ton of runway left for system 1.
trackersacker
Member
NCWeatherNow
Member
What causes mjo phases and what does it do with weather?
I hear people talk about it alot but I never really understood it.
I hear people talk about it alot but I never really understood it.
it's got too.
2” so far from this event. Feels like a mid morning in May.
WXinCanton
Member
Just below 2 inches here, thinking 3 plus I very doable.
Brent
Member
We had 5 tornadoes here Thursday morning between 7-9am. Tied the record for January
One was ef2 apparently
GiantBear
Member
Northern GA might have the precip anomaly since around October balanced out just from yesterday and today 
NCWeatherNow
Member
ForsythSnow
Moderator
2.18 so far here.
I’m pushing three with thunder and the creek is at the top of its banks. We may make a run at five judging by the future radar.
a_gilmore88
Member
A pitiful .4” in southern Rowan County, NC. Didn’t have more than 1.8” in an event for all of 2025. The most rain we have had at once since JULY of 2025 is 1.01” on October 17th. Just absurd drought happening right now.
bncho
Member
The reason why the 0z GFS worked out to be a major winter storm is because the h5 vort tilts negative right over the East Coast, then BAM. We're running out of time to do that, there's still time but less of it than before.
rburrel2
Member
Eastern TN and Nc mountains look good for the 2nd system according to the euro ai. North AL, and GA in the game too. I think my area of far NW SC could get in the game as well, we just need a tick or two colder, with a lower height field. Definitely attainable at this range.
vsublazer
Member
Sitting right at 2.60 so far with this event. Not going to complain. We all desperately need to rain in the South. It was down right depressing seeing how much Lake Lanier was down visiting the in-laws during Christmas. Also, low level clouds moving at a quick pace this morning. Anyway, now onto looking at trends on models today. Thank you all for your analysis!!!
Half inch so far. Goods are to my north, with 1.7" on Hogback Mtn 25mi NE.
2.3" Blairsville GA
3.2" Wayah Bald NC
1.47" KAVL
1.64" KGSO
1.14" Pickens SC
2.3" Blairsville GA
3.2" Wayah Bald NC
1.47" KAVL
1.64" KGSO
1.14" Pickens SC
I am just amazed that at 9:15ET in South Fulton that is 68F/cloudy and muggy. Much needed rain though!
In the case of the first event we are all hoping to hit the sweet spot and realistically every few county layers west need an earlier and earlier phase/ negative tilt. One thing i have learned over the years that may not work every time but most of the time it does is your don't want the system phased where you are in the bullseye or already too far SE, the majority of the time they don't come back. The late week set up does need some help but really unless you are west of Atlanta this setup is still very doable.
The 2nd setup really has to dig farther west or is another miller a look and I wouldn't be surprised to see it try to run the coast as well..
The 2nd setup really has to dig farther west or is another miller a look and I wouldn't be surprised to see it try to run the coast as well..
rburrel2
Member
You can already tell our next cold period starting around 360hrs… is potentially gonna be more favorable for snow. Ensemble means lighting up with snow at the very end of their runs.
MJO should be helping us out by that point and we have the cold source region. It’s probably going to be our make or break time this winter (last week of January/first week of February).
MJO should be helping us out by that point and we have the cold source region. It’s probably going to be our make or break time this winter (last week of January/first week of February).
ducketta27
Member
Haven’t seen the overnight runs yet, are we kicking the can?
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Ron Burgundy
Member
