Pattern January Joke

[SD]

In the case of the first event we are all hoping to hit the sweet spot and realistically every few county layers west need an earlier and earlier phase/ negative tilt. One thing i have learned over the years that may not work every time but most of the time it does is your don't want the system phased where you are in the bullseye or already too far SE, the majority of the time they don't come back. The late week set up does need some help but really unless you are west of Atlanta this setup is still very doable.

The 2nd setup really has to dig farther west or is another miller a look and I wouldn't be surprised to see it try to run the coast as well..

 

[rburrel2]

You can already tell our next cold period starting around 360hrs… is potentially gonna be more favorable for snow. Ensemble means lighting up with snow at the very end of their runs.

MJO should be helping us out by that point and we have the cold source region. It’s probably going to be our make or break time this winter (last week of January/first week of February).

 

[ducketta27]

You can already tell our next cold period starting around 360hrs… is potentially gonna be more favorable for snow. Ensemble means lighting up with snow at the very end of their runs.

MJO should be helping us out by that point and we have the cold source region. It’s probably going to be our make or break time this winter (last week of January/first week of February).

Haven’t seen the overnight runs yet, are we kicking the can?


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[Ron Burgundy]

2.18 so far here.

 

[Rain Cold]

Haven’t seen the overnight runs yet, are we kicking the can?


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Lol

 

[SD]

2nd half of the month when the pattern loses the deep eastern trough wouldn't be surprised to see some kind of wedge region ice event

 

[rburrel2]

Haven’t seen the overnight runs yet, are we kicking the can?


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Nah we are still in the game for the 2nd threat. It’s favoring eastern TN and NC mountains right now though.

After that it seems like we will waste a week or so before more favorable conditions hopefully appear again.

 

[Rain Cold]

 

[SD]

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It sucks this doesn't spread east. Its actually damn near incredible Ill likely end up with 0.00

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Intense training w this storm. Had enough rain in it to put a dent in everybody’s drought. But no go

 

[NCSNOW]

Its in the low 60s here, doesn't feel like January whatsoever.

Very spring like

My rye grass has greened back up and off to races. Birds out everywhere chirping. Things Id rather witness in April. We essentially punted the past 15 days. If we could score a couple of good storms, all will be forgiven lol.

 

[WFFaithful]

A pitiful .4” in southern Rowan County, NC. Didn’t have more than 1.8” in an event for all of 2025. The most rain we have had at once since JULY of 2025 is 1.01” on October 17th. Just absurd drought happening right now.

1.1" just north of you

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

BAM is taking another stab at beating down the possible warm-up post system two.

 

[NCWeatherNow]

Im estimating around a half inch of rainfall so far today.

 

[SNOWMANN]

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Dude it's been pouring at my place in oak hill off 181 all night. Much needed though. Hopefully we can see a few flakes this week.

 

[Rain Cold]

It sucks this doesn't spread east. Its actually damn near incredible Ill likely end up with 0.00

If it makes you feel better, it's been raining all morning, and my tempest is at .2. I think it's broken. Hopefully, you get some.

Dude it's been pouring at my place in oak hill off 181 all night. Much needed though. Hopefully we can see a few flakes this week.

Yeah it's been good. Lots of puddles. Haven't seen that in a long time. You probably have a better shot at flakes that me in the sink zone.

 

[jrips27]

Does the rule of thunder in winter = snow within a week still apply?

 

[Rain Cold]

Does the rule of thunder in winter = snow within a week still apply?
View attachment 182178

100%

 

[BIG FROSTY]

1.00" so far. looks as though more is otw.

 

[jrips27]

 

[BillyMurrayWx]

Approaching 3 inches since it started yesterday in Chatsworth.

 

[rburrel2]

Icon was about to be a nuke job for northwest SC at hr180. It phased in a northern lobe in to the first storm that kept the height field lower for us with the 2nd storm. Love to see it.

 

[rburrel2]

Honestly after further inspection… icon about to have a -12c 850 5h bowling ball plowing through the southeast… would have been biblical I think.

 

[Mitch West]

Icon brings some snow for the first system East of the Apps. For the second system, it’s a healthy hit & still running at the end of the run.

 

[Rain Cold]

Honestly after further inspection… icon about to have a -12c 850 5h bowling ball plowing through the southeast… would have be biblical I think.

Like I said the other day, all great ICON runs occur around 192. I don't know if I've ever seen a good ICON run within 6 days. I don't even think the ICON was invented until after it quit snowing.

 

[Mitch West]

Like I said the other day, all great ICON runs occur around 192. I don't know if I've ever seen a good ICON run within 6 days. I don't even think the ICON was invented until after it quit snowing.

Sir. I’m calling the authorities

 

[rburrel2]

I would pay good money to see the icon go through hr240 on that run. Whew.

That trough is going negative and cutting off….imo. And look at the cold air it has to work with.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

ICON 1st system. We need to find a way to dig this further SW Still 5 days away.

 

[Tarheel1]

And it promptly warms up after threat 2...

You’re in the South, that’s what happens.
We’ve got enough people like you on here already! It’s stale

 

[Ksnow33]

You’re in the South, that’s what happens.
We’ve got enough people like you on here already! It’s stale

And? Just stating the model output

 

[SNOWMANN]

If it makes you feel better, it's been raining all morning, and my tempest is at .2. I think it's broken. Hopefully, you get some.

Yeah it's been good. Lots of puddles. Haven't seen that in a long time. You probably have a better shot at flakes that me in the sink zone.

That storm we got in December changed to snow that evening and it coated everything including the trees but as soon as you went down oak hill off 181 into Morganton there was nothing. Amazing what 200 extra feet can do. We need to meet up for the breakfast buffet at Ables sometime soon. I don't know if you've tried it yet but I highly recommend. Along with Hunters Livermush. Local only delicacie.

 

[Tarheel1]

And? Just stating the model output

From a 300 hour op run!!??
You must be a meteorologist!

 

[LukeBarrette]

The AIGFS still is consistently a no

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

The GFS is trying.

 

[bncho]

GFS!

 

[LukeBarrette]

Guarantee it will be a cold front by 18z

 

[NBAcentel]

The AIGFS still is consistently a no

It actually went the right direction at H5 quite a bit. Each run keeps amplifying it but this one brought it more SW. seems like that’s the direction of 12z guidance.

 

[accu35]

Gfs says I’m back

 

[LukeBarrette]

 

[accu35]

Parts of MS seeing some snow on this first storm. Very light tho