All we had to do is quit listening to Bastardi, Webber,Grit, Robert, Farmers Almanac, Groundhog, woolyworm back in November.
Just listen to Shettley. He nailed it.
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Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Just listen to Shettley. He nailed it.
More on the 12Z GEFS that says the op. is an outlier:
12Z GFS 186 6 hour qpf: plentiful qpf E Carolinas
12Z GEFS members 186 6 hour qpf: members have either none (most) or very little qpf E Carolinas; but #s 13, 14, and 30 have significant qpf just offshore meaning with some adjustments they may not be too far off from E Carolinas snow:
12Z GFS 186 6 hour qpf: plentiful qpf E Carolinas
12Z GEFS members 186 6 hour qpf: members have either none (most) or very little qpf E Carolinas; but #s 13, 14, and 30 have significant qpf just offshore meaning with some adjustments they may not be too far off from E Carolinas snow:
We know man.. lol we can dream!
Man this is gonna show something.. maybe
trackersacker
Member
We’ll check back for the surface maps when they come out at 3:45 this afternoon
No doubt waiting on these hour frames is like being on dial up.
trackersacker
Member
And the thing is it didn’t used to be. Weatherbell needs to fix it
trackersacker
Member
So does pivotal I guess
believe it'll be too dry for much. sfc temps not really there either. maybe something for coastal plain
close at d10 on the euro though
ducketta27
Member
Wouldn’t take much here
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
With the first system you gotta figure out how you want the northern stream energy and southern stream energy to interact. Models will likely be all over the place with the placement and interaction of the two features.
If Louisiana gets snow again I’m deleting my account sigh
2m's are close in our backyards a few frames later. its close to something more fun
She was close, but just a cold rain for the Southeast. MUCH better Euro run compared to last night. Better runs this afternoon for sure! The end of the Euro sends the North pole. 
rburrel2
Member
Tiny adjustment here gets most of us a decent snow. Also, congrats Florida.
Please let there be EPS support for something like posted above.
Just food for thought, surface temps are too warm verbatim, but with that much cold air aloft, that will get pulled down with any decent precipitation.
trackersacker
Member
You have to admire that Euro run. Lot going on. Just gotta connect the dots.
trackersacker
Member
In regards to vortex concerns, on the Euro run you can see the vortex depart around day 10 with the eastern ridge at 500 showing up shortly after. Then you get the stretched vortex returning further into North America day 14-15 and sure enough we end with a decent cold shot at hour 360.
accu35
Member
I’ll take this and run
trackersacker
Member
Slush on the back porch rail at 5:45 AM for 10 minutes
Did that actually break containment!
within shouting distance of something but i was generally unenthused by this suite
There's just no blocking to slow the thing down. Even a little blocking would help. Or a bigger ridge spike. But they usually seem to trend less steep with time.
If we could see some blocking start showing up, there will be a big dog. You've got energy just begging to hook up.
If we could see some blocking start showing up, there will be a big dog. You've got energy just begging to hook up.
Hasn’t the trend been for the blocking to come back closer to time recently or am I just making that up.
It depends on the period, I guess. If the MJO wakes up as expected, we'll have to see what phase it's likely to be in to determine how it may influence the pattern in 9 days or so. I think it would have more of an influence then than it has had recently.
We have, generally, seen a tendency for the -NAO to return. So we can put that as a plus in the seasonal trend bucket, I suppose. Same with LR models showing a ridge in the east that turns into a trough with time.
In fairness, we've come a long way with the pattern from where we were.....but yes, we could use a bit of shortwave sharpness diving into the base of the trough to get more precip and colder temperatures working top-down.
tennessee storm
Member
Yes. Still nothing get excited about … when we start get there I come the party
Runs seemed fine to me. We could have easily continue what could have been a trend in the wrong direction from yesterday evening into last night but we have quickly cut that off & look better compared to the last 12 hours.
To me everything is pretty much on the table. Just gotta get things to come together. I really think that -NAO is gonna come back in a big way the next couple of days.
ducketta27
Member
Latest H5s impressive, but when do we worry about thermal profile near surface? Nothing phenomenal there yet.. but I guess there's still time
Hey, it’s a start.
NBAcentel
Member
To me, it looks like we went from overrunning, to the middle ground of suck last night, and now we’re are starting to edge more towards a miller A look for that day 10 timeframe. Just need to slow things down imo, the western ridge has trended way east. This is why I was saying worrying about SE ridging isn’t exactly my concern a few days ago, it’s going back to the base state of suppression and dry NW flow with an occasional clipper. This western ridge is taller though then the December midget ridge and VA even scored with that super mario ahhh ridge, so maybe we dig something up this go with it being taller 
packfan98
Moderator
Spot on! I hate that we lost the overrunning look. Phasing systems are tricky for the models to figure out, so we keep watching.
At least there isn’t any 60’s/70’s down the pipe as things stand. That’s a win in itself
NBAcentel
Member
Yeah agree. Gotta like where the AI is heading though, it’s getting close to getting out the sucky middle ground. If we want to increase our chances here we need some northern stream to really dig, and besides, we are at a time of the year where it’s relatively easy to sneak out a novelty/minor event just from Northern stream by itself passing overhead. Tilting it and phasing though is something else
