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Pattern January Joke

NBAcentel said:
If this is the pattern we are working with the next month or so, exciting times coming, gonna be no shortage of boring weather, times where pac jet is retracted and we torch and probably get severe weather thanks to the polar jet being highly involved from the TPV, oth get some bouts of extension and you suddenly get a winter storm. Very 2014 esque. Something we throw in with February as well is the PMM likely becoming more positive, which should wake up the subtropical jet, and could also contribute to a more active Dixie season this spring
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Looks like the VP / MJO (when combined with the eastern moving warm pool) is fairly favorable for bouts of winter out to mid Feb. We’ll see how it goes tho

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Also seems like getting that TPV drawn into the pattern is allowing more looks, you can see it the last few runs moving more towards Hudson BayIMG_1949.gif
For ex, the run with it further away from Hudson Bay IMG_1950.gif
Now with it closer, it gets drawn into the circulation pattern more, with more troughing as it interacts more with the mid latitude pattern, and also sets the +TNH in motion quicker IMG_1951.gif
 
NBAcentel said:
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Euro suite still trying its best to mimic Jan 2014


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xshare said:
How come North GA still gets rain even though we’re above the 540 line?
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Look at the sounding. It's 40s at the surface while the temp drops fast as you go up in altitude. The snow melts as it falls through the warm surface boundary layer. Don't worry too much about it at 219 hrs, though. The entire storm will be gone at 12z.
 
Daily CFS Update / monitoring for late January into Fab February. Doubles down on the Cold. The varmit that pops out on Feb 2 every year aint gonna like it. Here's 2 frames from 1/31 and 2/6 just to illustrate how cold its depicting things. Several storms slapped on there as well. If it's correct , better have the pipes wrapped as we roll into Fab Feb.

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AM forecast done. Beware your grid forecast highs for Friday if you live in the NC Foothills. Seeing this on the Euro visibility product this morning makes me wary of a Monday repeat
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Going to be interesting to watch this rain event unfold over the next few days. EPS showing some solid probs of >2.0 QPF in 24hr from western AL up into SWNC.

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Pretty big southward shift over the last 24 hours as well. Yesterday 06z
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vs today 06z

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Euro AI a bit more consistent (as expected). LP has still ticked south with less amplification (surprise!). WPC maintained a slight risk ERO in a similar area compared to yesterday, but wouldn't be surprised to see it tick south some

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Meanwhile, 6z Euro AI wasn't terribly far off from a big hit around MLK

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We'll roll the dice if this look verifies. Scarred somewhat by the rug pull for this weekend from earlier this month, but happy to see a couple hits on the ensembles

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These CFS ens AAM forecasts are volatile especially for later in the forecast period. So fwiw, the latest forecast mean is the most bullish yet for a rising AAM starting in ~2 weeks and actually going modestly positive (El Nino-like) in ~3 weeks:
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NCWeatherNow said:
Nah, you wanna see it verifying actually.

Remember December 8th 2025 guys
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Haha yup even out here with our better climo I've seen two horrible busts inside 12 hours in the last 3 winters haha. Winter Storm Warning once and didn't even cover the ground

Technically it was a bust last January too but it just went the opposite good way for once

February technically was probably a bust too with the hype it had. The best ones have had no hype
 
Another thing I want to add is we dont know whats gonna happen, for all we know it could be another Virginia special or 60 degree days by late month, or we score big time.

And thats ok, we arent in the drivers seat with these things and we gotta understand that at the end of the day.
 
Anytime I see a snow accum footprint like the 0Z Euro showed for MLK. I get tingly, cause it screams big big dog potential.
That letter V shape opening up from SW to NE is the tall signature of all HECS. Food for thought and still long ways to go. But potential is there for the MLK time stamp storm. Keep getting models every cycle spitting stuff out for this time frame.

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NCSNOW said:
Anytime I see a snow accum footprint like the 0Z Euro showed for MLK. I get tingly, cause it screams big big dog potential.
That letter V shape opening up from SW to NE is the tall signature of all HECS. Food for thought and still long ways to go. But potential is there for the MLK time stamp storm. Keep getting models every cycle spitting stuff out for this time frame.

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There was quite a bit of ice just east of the snowfall on that particular run. EPS H5 pattern already has a winter storm look, let’s see how it progresses in the coming days.


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griteater said:
It does suck there. The question is......is it correct? We're going to have a battle over the SE, and we don't know for sure how it's going to turn out. It could be SE ridgy....or it could be the opposite - big Arctic blast and cold to very cold.

One thing the GFS AI is doing is trying to re-fire convection back across the Maritime Continent and E Indian Ocean - so that 'may' help to explain the SE ridge issue....but the runs fluctuate

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Most modeling is progressing that VP signal east, more in the position where you would typically see for +TNH / -EPO ridging. Here is the Euro, same timeframe

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To me, this is what makes or breaks the period, where the forcing winds up, the jet, and where our western ridge therefore lines up. Too much jet retraction, the ridge is too far west, and we get a big SE ridge.
NBAcentel said:
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I love how the western ridge shifts east, putting our +PNA back in play and muting the SE ridge. Love it. But notice the pacific trough, also shifting east right east of Hawaii, pushing the western ridge further east where it needs to be. That tells me the jet is extending and the forcing is right as well. Therefore, it's not surprising that we're starting to get a few pings of fantasy hits. Players are putting their toes on the field (maybe not on it yet).

Couple that with NBA's (fro's) point about more -NAO trending pushing the PV and the storm track south, and we've got a very nice recipe for late January. Just hope it holds and the jet does not retract.
 
Yesterday, NG was down 5% mainly on warmer week 2 forecasts in the E US due largely to warmer GEFS/EPS means. Today (as of now), the opposite has occurred with a 5% gain mainly on colder week 2 E US forecasts due to colder GEFS/EPS means in the E US vs yesterday:

Last 4 GEFS week 2 means through 6Z:
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NG up 5%
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