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Pattern January Joke

trackersacker said:
View attachment 181342View attachment 181343View attachment 181344Who remembers January 6th, 2017?

That was a good one
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And it was one of those classic overnight snowfalls for many. There is just something about heavy snow at night that is just magical. Nothing like waking up to a blanket of white on the ground, especially if it was bare when you went to bed. Haven’t seen an overnight snow like that in my area since Jan 2018, almost all of the major notable events have been in the day over the past few years.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
When’s the last time an event started as rain and ended as a decent snow here? Wait I’ll tell you: Christmas 2010☃️ 🥴
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I was gonna go March 1, 2009
It raine almost all night before and the day of, until about 3pm and we still picked up 6-8” at about 35 degrees! Those rates tho
 
0Z GEFS pretty much retained the stronger/longer midmonth +PNA of the 18Z.

But the 0Z EPS didn’t budge on its now earlier than GEFS end of its midmonth +PNA and to a strong -PNA that actually made it warmer in the SE than its prior two runs 1/19-20 with NN instead of a bit BN. I continue to have supported hope that this will change like the GEFS has been doing. We’ll see.

The warmer 1/19-20 EPS runs counter to its much less credible op that brings Barney into the SE at the same time.

0Z EPS 360: strong -PNA
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Just monitoring the CFS daily for trends. It's really flipped and turns on the cold as we head toward last 10 days of January. Matches what we are seeing on all other guidance days 7-15. Kind of step down back to normal wx/ temps for this time of year next week, and another step down/ allowing the barney Cold to visit in and out deeper south last 10 days of the month. Had some sub freezing days here and saw a couple single digit low temps.
 
Even if we drop a trough in the southwest in the long range and get some slight ridging over the south east… I think that probably leads to some type of CAD/ice storm around January 21st. Source region is going to be extremely cold at that time and if we get the slight ridging it should promote wedging. That time period definitely has the widest goal posts so far this year for a winter storm, imo.
 
GaWx said:
0Z GEFS pretty much retained the stronger/longer midmonth +PNA of the 18Z.

But the 0Z EPS didn’t budge on its now earlier than GEFS end of its midmonth +PNA and to a strong -PNA that actually made it warmer in the SE than its prior two runs 1/19-20 with NN instead of a bit BN. I continue to have supported hope that this will change like the GEFS has been doing. We’ll see.

The warmer 1/19-20 EPS runs counter to its much less credible op that brings Barney into the SE at the same time.

0Z EPS 360: strong -PNA
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Yeah, pursuing the overnight ensembles is sobering. Both the EPS and GEFS essentially keep the SE above normal for the entirety of the runs. If the pattern depicted at the end of all of the big three verifies, we lose January.
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Stevo24 said:
How did I get to this after reading all the good stuff overnight lol I literally was getting pumped all the way until this post.
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I'll pick you back up. It gets Bueno on cfs past 1/22, right where ensembles stop. The webber 2014 , Fab Feb/March redux might materialize. Just don't hold your breathe on any Fab Feb news from models, until you actually witness it.


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The models have been on auto correct in the medium range wanting to put a trough out west only to replace it with a ridge. It’s a +TNH winter pattern. Even if a trough does try to build in the PNW/W coast it doesn’t last long. I personally wouldn’t put much stock in those long range “ghost” troughs out west.


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NCWeatherNow said:
It looks like everything downtrended significantly last night, as usual. 😭
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I wouldn't say that. The worrisome ensemble means are unchanged. The operational runs are always going to swing wildly in these crazy day +10 runs we're playing around with, and are a reminder that, within the means, there are members that show how we can still score.
 
NCWeatherNow said:
It looks like everything downtrended significantly last night, as usual. 😭
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Everything definitely didn't downtrend significantly... Not sure how you came to that.

But i will say, nothing improved. We climaxed at the 00z GFS op run, after that nothing really changed since yesterday afternoon. We didn't have much movement one way or the other just past Day 10 with the massive bowl trough setting up. Next weeks storm risk is there, but currently it looks mainly like a NW flow snow event. (What's new..)

Are we kicking the can to the second half of January? I think so. That's only a bad thing if we don't get anything out of it. We have what looks to be a dome of very cold air setting up for the back half of January, where that sets up.. wiggles around & where moisture overrides (overrunning) is all stuff we have to figure out in time.

What we need to do is trend away from the -PNA showing up in the long range & we need to suppress the boundary South. That's currently my main focus. We need to kick the can with the broad Southern ridge showing up. ecmwf-aifs-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1767679200-1768694400-1768694400-20.gif
 
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41b8191c76b1254d9a1673ce17f0425d.gif

Disappearing act with the west coast trough to a building PNA at day 10.


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These mid-late winter -EPO/+TNH patterns are usually big roller coaster rides in the SE US.

We usually flip-flop between a torch and extreme cold, with very little room for anything in between.

A subtle shift here or there to minute details in the pattern is often the difference between those 2 extreme outcomes. The lack of long range threats (day 7+) honestly doesn’t mean 💩 in this pattern because of how razor thin the margins are between being bitterly cold or blowtorch warm.

You’re very rarely going to sniff out overrunning type winter storm threats (which are the hallmark of this pattern) outside the medium range, because the background flow is fast and your waves are usually getting shredded to bits as they encounter the Hudson Bay Vortex.

Everyone just needs to take a deep breath and relax 😌

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Webberweather53 said:
These mid-late winter -EPO/+TNH patterns are usually big roller coaster rides in the SE US.

We usually flip-flop between a torch and extreme cold, with very little room for anything in between.

A subtle shift here or there to minute details in the pattern is often the difference between those 2 extreme outcomes. The lack of long range threats (day 7+) honestly doesn’t mean 💩 in this pattern because of how razor thin the margins are between being bitterly cold or blowtorch warm.

You’re very rarely going to sniff out overrunning type winter storm threats (which are the hallmark of this pattern) outside the medium range, because the background flow is fast and your waves are usually getting shredded to bits as they encounter the Hudson Bay Vortex.

Everyone just needs to take a deep breath and relax 😌

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For sure man! Tons of cold air up top.
 
Mitch West said:
Everything definitely didn't downtrend significantly... Not sure how you came to that.

But i will say, nothing improved. We climaxed at the 00z GFS op run, after that nothing really changed since yesterday afternoon. We didn't have much movement one way or the other just past Day 10 with the massive bowl trough setting up. Next weeks storm risk is there, but currently it looks mainly like a NW flow snow event. (What's new..)

Are we kicking the can to the second half of January? I think so. That's only a bad thing if we don't get anything out of it. We have what looks to be a dome of very cold air setting up for the back half of January, where that sets up.. wiggles around & where moisture overrides (overrunning) is all stuff we have to figure out in time.

What we need to do is trend away from the -PNA showing up in the long range & we need to suppress the boundary South. That's currently my main focus. We need to kick the can with the broad Southern ridge showing up. View attachment 181373
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Basically the same story here, ridge axis already off the west coast but it’s shifting east and trying to get rid of the trough heading toward medium range.


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Even in an "Average" or "Good not great" I feel like most climo favored areas could score a
3-6" Overrunning event at some point, Would just need to time it up overnight ect. Obviously wouldn't work for everyone, but NE GA - Raleigh (I-85 N/NW). Id say a "Great" pattern is only needed for a big dog but idk
 
Mitch West said:
For sure man! Tons of cold air up top.
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We will probably see us get a good cold push initially as this EPO block sets up, then the SE ridge flexes late month as everything retrogrades.

My hunch is we will load up yet again early to mid February as the MJO orbits into the Western Hemisphere and is convectively coupled to the developing El Niño event in the Pacific.
 
Webberweather53 said:
These mid-late winter -EPO/+TNH patterns are usually big roller coaster rides in the SE US.

We usually flip-flop between a torch and extreme cold, with very little room for anything in between.

A subtle shift here or there to minute details in the pattern is often the difference between those 2 extreme outcomes. The lack of long range threats (day 7+) honestly doesn’t mean 💩 in this pattern because of how razor thin the margins are between being bitterly cold or blowtorch warm.

You’re very rarely going to sniff out overrunning type winter storm threats (which are the hallmark of this pattern) outside the medium range, because the background flow is fast and your waves are usually getting shredded to bits as they encounter the Hudson Bay Vortex.

Everyone just needs to take a deep breath and relax 😌

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View attachment 181372
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If I'm going to take a swing at something epic (multiple inch snow followed by extended cold) I'm taking my shot with a big NW Canada/AK ridge over any other option.
No need for anyone to @ me about the NAO
 
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