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Pattern January Joke

Webberweather53 said:
The new Euro seasonal is trying to go full send on a Feb 2014 type scenario to end winter this year.

Certainly makes sense to me with how much stronger and eastward shifted the IPWP looks on the latest forecast and seeing another legit MJO wave coming down the pipe in week 2-3 to shove it eastward even more.

We’ve clearly moved out of a classical La Nina state already imho
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Jan 5 SST.png
 
griteater said:
Possible scenario to watch: Scandi High > -EAMT > Retrograde the pattern > Greenland Block (not there yet on image below) > Cold TPV trapped in E Canada

View attachment 181263


Here is -EAMT showing up on some modeling after mid-month

View attachment 181265


Combined 2 images on the right (green boxes) on the Euro clusters show this scenario a bit (along with 'somehow' holding some western ridging)

View attachment 181266
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That’s a very rare look! With the coldest air on the planet in SE Canada!!!! Think I’ve seen that like 3 times in the last 15 years! Hoping that can come to fruition!
It’s hard to get excited about a snowy pattern with a -PNA also, I hope that is somehow wrong as well!
 
griteater said:
GFS / GEFS can be crazy at times of course.....I will say that last Jan, the GEFS was the best model in the medium range with the January +TNH / +PNA pattern (compared to EPS/CMCE). EPS was best in Dec 2024. This winter, I don't think there is a clear winner to date - take a model blend
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In tracking the few snowstorms I’ve had this year, the GFS has been the top performing model! It picked up storms earlier and accurately! The Euro has been horrible!
 
griteater said:
18z GFS OP has a fairly substantial positive East Asian Mtn Torque event here Jan 10-12 as seen on the sfc pressure pattern (1st loop). What we'd expect to see thereafter over the subsequent week is the Pac Jet extend, or at a minimum, the momentum in the Pac Jet being maintained. Instead, the Pac Jet collapses a bit here and retreats west (2nd loop)....and the resulting pattern is a more western ridge up thru Alaska and the Bering Strat, with the trough dumping into the western U.S.

View attachment 180836

View attachment 180837


View attachment 180838


View attachment 180840
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Checkout the change in the jet on the GFS from 4 days ago vs. today...and the associated ridge placement in the Central vs Eastern Pacific

Jan 5 GFS Jet Loop.gif
 
I don't mind at all the jet undercutting the ridge out west. What I'd like to see is the top of the ridge stop getting shaved off by shortwaves and have the top of the ridge not break off and roll over pretty please and if it's not too much trouble, get a little blocking to return pretty pretty please with sugar on top.

And a cherry.

gfs_z500a_namer_42.png
 
0765de673ca73c9f763beb83ab091b72.gif

Overrunning/CAD signal on some members around 1/21.


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I’ve said it a few times but I really lean towards overrunning being not only the most likely but easiest opportunity going forward just looking at the ensembles. We are good enough in the west with ridging that it’s flattening things east. But imo it won’t be the perfect location so you’ll see some amplification with the SER. It also looks like a big lobe of Arctic air is setting up in Canada and we might be able to get some CPF to really drop those Arctic highs across the northern US. I like seeing the center of these troughs along the Great Lakes and more in the 50/50 region. It’s setting up for big opportunity for CAD wedges at a minimum. With enough amplification across the SE that really opens the door for overrunning opportunities. It’s just a matter of timing.

I continue to be a big proponent that’s the best way for us to score winter storms these days. I just don’t have faith in timing up N/S energy dropping down and amplifying at the perfect time which requires western ridging to be perfect. Or ejecting ULL out of Baja which they just don’t anymore. Or getting a true phase. We haven’t shown the ability to be able to do it. We either sit at 35-55 degrees and rain or drop the hammer and It’s 20 & 30 degree sunny days. The easiest way imo to score these days is situate the cold air just to the north and allow these HP’s that move east to tap into the cold air for us and get the southern jet going to just pump moisture into the southeast and see if you can time it up. The windows are usually bigger and the opportunity to score is bigger. It also stinks because you’re not likely to track anything long term. These things show up in like the day 3-5 range. Luckily the pattern is setting up for text book overrunning wedge opportunities. I think somebody is going to score here before the end of January. If you twisted my arm I’d say the Tennessee valley, and the western south around Memphis west and north have the best opportunity. Then the traditional CAD regions (Along and west of 77 and along and north of 85) are probably the most likely after that. then the I20 corridor and northern Georgia after that.
 
rburrel2 said:
This gefs run is epic… I don’t wanna jinx it, but I think we finally have something legit cooking.

View attachment 181290
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Per WxBell’s version of the GEFS’ mean PNA, the trend of the last few days for both the length and strength of the midmonth +PNA has been a sharp increase: watch as the midmonth green line above 0 on each of these images gets longer and peaks higher:

- 0Z 1/2 run: <1 day >0 (Jan 12th); max amp +0.1 (Jan 12th)
IMG_6795.png

- 0Z 1/3 run: 3 days>0 (Jan 11th-13th); max amp +0.5 (Jan 12th)
IMG_6796.png

- 0Z 1/4 run: 4.5 days>0 (Jan 10th-14th); max amp +0.7 (Jan 11th)
IMG_6797.png

-0Z 1/5 run: 6 days>0 (Jan 9th-15th); max amp +1.2 (Jan 13th)
IMG_6799.png

-18Z 1/5 run: 8 days>0 (Jan 9th-17th); max amp +1.7 (Jan 14th)
IMG_6800.png


Here are those 5 images in a GIF:
Image.gif
 
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iGRXY said:
I’ve said it a few times but I really lean towards overrunning being not only the most likely but easiest opportunity going forward just looking at the ensembles. We are good enough in the west with ridging that it’s flattening things east. But imo it won’t be the perfect location so you’ll see some amplification with the SER. It also looks like a big lobe of Arctic air is setting up in Canada and we might be able to get some CPF to really drop those Arctic highs across the northern US. I like seeing the center of these troughs along the Great Lakes and more in the 50/50 region. It’s setting up for big opportunity for CAD wedges at a minimum. With enough amplification across the SE that really opens the door for overrunning opportunities. It’s just a matter of timing.

I continue to be a big proponent that’s the best way for us to score winter storms these days. I just don’t have faith in timing up N/S energy dropping down and amplifying at the perfect time which requires western ridging to be perfect. Or ejecting ULL out of Baja which they just don’t anymore. Or getting a true phase. We haven’t shown the ability to be able to do it. We either sit at 35-55 degrees and rain or drop the hammer and It’s 20 & 30 degree sunny days. The easiest way imo to score these days is situate the cold air just to the north and allow these HP’s that move east to tap into the cold air for us and get the southern jet going to just pump moisture into the southeast and see if you can time it up. The windows are usually bigger and the opportunity to score is bigger. It also stinks because you’re not likely to track anything long term. These things show up in like the day 3-5 range. Luckily the pattern is setting up for text book overrunning wedge opportunities. I think somebody is going to score here before the end of January. If you twisted my arm I’d say the Tennessee valley, and the western south around Memphis west and north have the best opportunity. Then the traditional CAD regions (Along and west of 77 and along and north of 85) are probably the most likely after that. then the I20 corridor and northern Georgia after that.
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Wasn't Winter Storm Izzy 2022 a overrunning event?
 
BD5EBFA2-95D5-45E9-8DFB-0507BFF4E1C6.gifOne big reason I absolutely despise severe weather during the winter is because it’s literally always in this spot. It’s never anywhere else. If we bring it home in rare instances like we did last February with that northwest flow event, fine, but when it’s in Memphis I literally couldn’t care about anything less. Any pattern with snow is more enjoyable.
 
GaWx said:
Per WxBell’s version of the GEFS’ mean PNA, the trend of the last few days for both the length and strength of the midmonth +PNA has been a sharp increase: watch as the midmonth green line above 0 on each of these images gets longer and peaks higher:

- 0Z 1/2 run: 0 (Jan 12th); max amp +0.1 (Jan 12th)
View attachment 181293

- 0Z 1/3 run: 3 days>0 (Jan 11th-13th); max amp +0.5 (Jan 12th)
View attachment 181294

- 0Z 1/4 run: 4.5 days>0 (Jan 10th-14th); max amp +0.7 (Jan 11th)
View attachment 181295

-0Z 1/5 run: 6 days>0 (Jan 9th-15th); max amp +1.2 (Jan 13th)
View attachment 181296

-18Z 1/5 run: 8 days>0 (Jan 9th-17th); max amp +1.7 (Jan 14th)
View attachment 181297


Here are those 5 images in a GIF:
View attachment 181299
Click to expand...

Yeah that’s a great trend there, and if you look at the median percentile, the mean is actually lower than that. So, maybe some more positive adjustments coming in future runs?


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CNCsnwfan1210 said:
Yeah that’s a great trend there, and if you look at the median percentile, the mean is actually lower than that. So, maybe some more positive adjustments coming in future runs?


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Click to expand...

My educated guess is that there likely will be more adjustments in a longer/stronger +PNA direction especially on the back end although quite likely in a more nonlinear fashion than the last 3.75 days. I’m keeping in mind:

- 90 day significant -PNA bias of GEFS: this increasing and lengthening +PNA may very well be due to an unraveling of the bias as we get closer to the period.

- The backend of the +PNA on the latest run is 12 days out, a near eternity as regards the -PNA bias.

- Every -PNA -ENSO Dec has transitioned to a +PNA Jan since 1983-4.

- There’s no telling where these adjustments will end. Considering the bullet points above, there’s the possibility this turns into the multi week period of +PNA domination I’ve been expecting (starting ~Jan 9th). If this actually happens, this could potentially run the table and get us a +PNA dominating the rest of the month and possibly beyond like the analogs have been suggesting was likely.

*Edited
 
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GaWx said:
My educated guess is that there likely will be more adjustments in a longer/stronger +PNA direction especially on the back end although quite likely in a more nonlinear fashion than the last 3.75 days. I’m keeping in mind:

- 90 day significant -PNA bias of GEFS: this increasing and lengthening +PNA may very well be due to an unraveling of the bias as we get closer to the period. If so, since we’re still still a whopping

- The backend of the +PNA on the latest run is 12 days out, a near eternity as regards the -PNA bias.

- Every -PNA -ENSO Dec has transitioned to a +PNA Jan since 1983-4.

*Editing to add more….
Click to expand...

Thank you for your research on this, you do a great job of keeping up with the teleconnection trends as well as add historical analysis.


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CNCsnwfan1210 said:
Thank you for your research on this, you do a great job of keeping up with the teleconnection trends as well as add historical analysis.


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Click to expand...

You’re welcome. IF the +PNA were to keep lengthening on the backend, the Euro Weeklies, which have stubbornly been showing a notable -PNA in the means for the week 1/19-25 and the weeks beyond, would gradually but probably soon start adjusting the week of 1/19-25 and potentially later start adjusting 1/26-2/1 (and then beyond??) in the +PNA direction….again IF.

This is keeping in mind that the EPS, too, had a -PNA bias during that 90 days.
 
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