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Pattern January Joke

NBAcentel said:
Looks like the biggest forcing mech heading forward is gonna be that Rossby wave that backs up around 150E into mid Jan, you can see it getting going towards the end of the EPS. favors a equatorward shift of the pac jet but not exactly telling on how far it extends per say, it’s still kinda hard to see a coherent MJO signal on modeling/ens other then convection wisely distributed here and there. For next week it seems like what killed our look is actually to much pacific jet And poleward shifted at that from the +EAMT event. Not shocking honestly, a lot of the times after a +EAMT event you start out with a extension and poleward shifted jet before it shifts equatorward View attachment 180585View attachment 180586View attachment 180587
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The ‘unintended benefit’ of the poleward jet is the NPac Low > Strat stretching so at least there’s that
 
NBAcentel said:
The blueprints to the western ridge is already in the day 7-8 range, the associated break in the pacific is already beginning next week around this time, you can actually see it improving. It’s also making next weeks “threat” go to zilch View attachment 180610
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You can also see how it’s killing our threat next week, the trend to an earlier break is pushing the trough further east in the western US, raising heights out in the eastern US. Small sacrifice for a bigger cause I guess
 
NBAcentel said:
You can also see how it’s killing our threat next week, the trend to an earlier break is pushing the trough further east in the western US, raising heights out in the eastern US. Small sacrifice for a bigger cause I guess
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Depends on if the small sacrifice was the only one we were gonna get this year. Then it becomes a large sacrifice.
 
Stevo24 said:
Depends on if the small sacrifice was the only one we were gonna get this year. Then it becomes a large sacrifice.
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Honestly even if we did go through we the look, temp anoms wasn’t very great, cold/thermos was definitely gonna be a issue with it, and while there was a few good analogs, most of them weren’t great for us, but rather the mid-Atlantic/lower NE. Not saying it couldn’t have happened, and it still could if something changes, but the look wasn’t very cold. I’d rather take a chance with some western US/alaskan ridging
 
NBAcentel said:
Doing another one of these… Jan temp forecast. far more difficult and more likely to bust then December given there’s not really a true MJO driving this. which December did have a MJO progression before it fell apart, making it a rather easier forecast. first week of Jan could skew warm due to the jet extending poleward, but gonna go out on a limb that eventually -EPO driven cold will take over anoms by week 2.5-4 of Jan, and the reason for the warmer lower SE is because I do believe there will be some retrogression in the NPAC which could end Jan warmer unless we find another way to reinforce a jet extension, and when you warm up ahead of a Arctic temp gradient, they tend to be rather warm. Think coldest period will be mid month (wk 3) for the SE View attachment 180601
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Yeah the Weeklies looked solid mid month, but thereafter, it looked like they were waving bye-bye to winter as the pattern retroed west. Hopefully Asia can help us out though with a bit of +EAMT momentum to extend things post mid month
 
griteater said:
We are so back to tracking Barney cold and dry (* ducks and hides…I know some hate that but I’m good with it - I’ve seen enough rain and 40 degrees in my lifetime lol)

View attachment 180609
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Thats honestly not a bad look considering the trends of the block..will maybe retrograde a bit and be just cold enough to not suppress a wave and bring us joy.
 
NBAcentel said:
This is just a bit concerning View attachment 180626View attachment 180627
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I do recall the +TNH being aggravating with not driving cold far enough south during portions of the 13-14 and 14-15 winters (with -NAO lacking). And when it does break farther south, hard to sync cold with storms too.....but again, I prefer getting more cold air in here and worry about storms later
 
griteater said:
I do recall the +TNH being aggravating with not driving cold far enough south during portions of the 13-14 and 14-15 winters (with -NAO lacking). And when it does break farther south, hard to sync cold with storms too.....but again, I prefer getting more cold air in here and worry about storms later
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Same, and if you remember last January there was a point when models way oversold the SE ridge resistance just 7-10 days out and the storm ended up dumping snow in the Gulf.View attachment 180630ACD57D1D-B276-42A7-AC7F-EA3052B3D43D.jpeg
 
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BullCityWx said:
Before anyone even posts it, the end of the ECAI does not resemble the ENS mean so there.
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Coming back to this. Even though the ECAI was a bit west with the western ridge going up, it was nice and aggressive here with the Pac Jet extension....looks good here.

Dec 30 E AI Jet.gif


In comparison, you can see how the trainwreck GFS run isn't extended as much with the jet here in the same timeframe....big difference in the resulting wave breaking in the E Pacific / W North America

Dec 30 GFS Jet.gif
 
trackersacker said:
View attachment 180592View attachment 180593View attachment 180594Something that *might* have some merit is what Bam has been talking about with the -AAM/MJO correlation and in the traditional sense phase 6 is warm, but they’re argument is in January the -AAM/MJO combo feeds the cold pattern because it enhances the EPO. Hoping that’s the outcome here.

Additionally, they were talking about the brief warmup ahead of the main cold pattern given Indian Ocean convection. They’ve done pretty well lately.
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I did the analysis of the 15 Jans with phase 6 during La Niña (1975-2025)

Year….# phase 6 days…avg anomaly

1975…3…-8

1976…13…-9

1989…3…+8

1999…3…+2

2000…3…-4

2006…6…+3

2008…3…+8

2009…6…+1

2011…12…-7

2012…19…+1

2017…2…0

2018…3…-2

2021…8…-1

2022…4…-9

2025…2…-5

—————
91 total days that averaged ~-2

3 MBN

3 BN

6 NN

1 AN

2 MAN


BAMwx said that the phase 6 MJO/-AAM analogs had this at ~-6 to -7. So, I believe based on the above analysis that this is a good bit overdone and should be ~-2. Granted, it came in cool on average with the -2 anomaly, which to me is admittedly a bit counterintuitive. And 1975, 1976, 2011, and 2022 came in quite cold during their Jan phase 6 days showing it would be doable. But one can see that only 6 of the 15 (40%) Jans during phase 6 were in BAMwx’s cold vicinity.

I’d still much rather it go 8-1-2.

Any comments?
 
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GaWx said:
I did the analysis of the 15 Jans with phase 6 during La Niña (1975-2025)

Year….# phase 6 days…avg anomaly

1975…3…-8

1976…13…-9

1989…3…+8

1999…3…+2

2000…3…-4

2006…6…+3

2008…3…+8

2009…6…+1

2011…12…-7

2012…19…+1

2017…2…0

2018…3…-2

2021…8…-1

2022…4…-9

2025…2…-5

—————
91 total days that averaged ~-2

3 MBN

3 BN

6 NN

1 AN

2 MAN


BAMwx said that the phase 6 MJO/-AAM analogs had this at ~-6 to -7. So, I believe based on the above analysis that this is a good bit overdone and should be ~-2. Granted, it came in cool on average with the -2 anomaly, which to me is admittedly a bit counterintuitive. And 1975, 1976, 2011, and 2022 came in quite cold during their Jan phase 6 days showing it would be doable. But one can see that only 6 of the 15 (40%) Jans during phase 6 were in BAMwx’s cold vicinity.

I’d still much rather it go 8-1-2.

Any comments?
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Appreciate the research man. I can’t argue with documentation. And absolutely I would rather 8, 1, 2.
 
GaWx said:
I did the analysis of the 15 Jans with phase 6 during La Niña (1975-2025)

Year….# phase 6 days…avg anomaly

1975…3…-8

1976…13…-9

1989…3…+8

1999…3…+2

2000…3…-4

2006…6…+3

2008…3…+8

2009…6…+1

2011…12…-7

2012…19…+1

2017…2…0

2018…3…-2

2021…8…-1

2022…4…-9

2025…2…-5

—————
91 total days that averaged ~-2

3 MBN

3 BN

6 NN

1 AN

2 MAN


BAMwx said that the phase 6 MJO/-AAM analogs had this at ~-6 to -7. So, I believe based on the above analysis that this is a good bit overdone and should be ~-2. Granted, it came in cool on average with the -2 anomaly, which to me is admittedly a bit counterintuitive. And 1975, 1976, 2011, and 2022 came in quite cold during their Jan phase 6 days showing it would be doable. But one can see that only 6 of the 15 (40%) Jans during phase 6 were in BAMwx’s cold vicinity.

I’d still much rather it go 8-1-2.

Any comments?
Click to expand...

Wow, great research. Impressive. Would not have thought overall average of -2 in a phase 6… there is hope yet? Ha


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