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Pattern January Joke

Almost 30 years to the day... Look familiar ?

JdSyHBx.png
 
Tbean37 said:
this is perfect southern Md gets hammered
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Southern Maryland / perfect

Tom Cruise What GIF


rburrel2 said:
That day 9 threat is honestly just a bonus possibility on the front side of the golden window.
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I have no qualms with the idea of:

1 - Ridge spike, wave drops in from the NW to kick the wintry pattern off for N / NE areas of the forum. This system becomes 50/50 low underneath the block

2 - Next system moves in from the W / SW and is wintry for N / NW areas of the forum. This system reinforces the block with Atlantic ridging out ahead of it

3 - Another ridge spike goes up. Storm track is suppressed farther south. Larger portion of the board / Deep South gets involved with the 3rd low - a southern slider
 
Here's what NOAA ESRL's daily EPO index looks like regressed against the University of Maryland Daily OLR dataset for Jan-Feb since 1979:

I flipped the color bar to make it conceptually easier to understand how the negative phase of the EPO is related to OLR anomalies in the Tropical Pacific.

Pacific Basin OLR Correlation with EPO Index (Jan-Feb).png


Here's the latest Euro weekly forecast.

Note the positive precipitation anomalies over the West-Central Tropical Pacific. The Northern Tropical Pacific looks quite similar to the correlation pattern actually and seems to be carrying the bulk of this -EPO teleconnection signal from the tropics.

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-pacwide-qpf_anom_7day-8694400.png
 
wow said:
Almost 30 years to the day... Look familiar ?

JdSyHBx.png
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Wouldn’t that be something. I still remember waking up at home in Concord the morning of 1/7/1996 with heavy sleet, 2 inches of it already covering the 1 inch of snow from the day before that had been coated with ZR. The temperature was 20 degrees and stayed there all day. Had another inch of sleet then topped it off with 3” inches of powder
 
Mitch West said:
Alright night crew, reel in the good vibes overnight. I want to wake up at 4 am to greatness. We got to end the overnight bad runs that have been dominant so far this season.
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We got some big time winter storms coming man. Need to get up at 3! 😁

Over the years, I have noticed that you get clusters of runs in a row that head in one direction and then clusters that head in the other during pattern changes. You just hope that the balance ends up tipping in the direction you want. In this case, it seems to be. Sleep well!
 
Rain Cold said:
We got some big time winter storms coming man. Need to get up at 3! 😁

Over the years, I have noticed that you get clusters of runs in a row that head in one direction and then clusters that head in the other during pattern changes. You just hope that the balance ends up tipping in the direction you want. In this case, it seems to be. Sleep well!
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Hopefully this time next week, we’ll all be setting our alarms to wake us up for each overnight model run
 
jackendrickwx said:
proof of concept. messy, who cares, it shows something is possible
View attachment 180424
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I’d also say that the GFS progressive bias in the north stream probably moves our trough and HP out too fast and you probably have a much more entrenched wedge from the onset. To me this would be a monster if the GFS synoptically handled wedges and N/S progression correctly
 
I really like the pattern progression for mid month. But the 8-10th timeframe is really starting to sound the alarm. I’d lean to the I40 north crowd at this leadtime but it’s quickly starting to get that look of a legit miller B/CAD Icy mess. Almost had that Jan 2022 feel of onset snow to ice to snow on the backside. I also like that although the -NAO isn’t at its perfect position it’s still building in really well and should keep the storm track south and allow for more snow as an option further south if we end up getting something.
 
Even I'm intrigued by where we may be headed. Not really sold on the 10 day threat. I don't like the AK vortex. It seems to be stopping any attempt at west coast ridging and giving us Pacific air to work with. The -NAO may help the storm track but cold will likely be an issue. I suppose its possible the CAD regions may can get a mixed bag given the NE hasn't torched and has a snowpack. But after that the progression looks good and RSG is all in!
 
I’m feeling optimistic. Last year, we had shot after shot after shot that didn’t really pan out… well, maybe it did for our neighbors on the coast… but the mid SC/GA crew is 10+ years overdue for a snow, and I’m really digging the pattern. Deciding to be optimistic about these trends in lieu of the “it never works out” mentality… I have no reason to , but think I may pull the pizza out the freezer @mitchwest


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Personally I think the front side of this pattern (Jan 6-12) can continue to improve with early western ridge spikes leading to a fairly deep E U.S. trough as the wave energy gets backed up / slows down as it interacts with the blocking pattern across the N Atlantic - with the storm track pushed a bit farther south. Let’s see where we go tho
 
griteater said:
Personally I think the front side of this pattern (Jan 6-12) can continue to improve with early western ridge spikes leading to a fairly deep E U.S. trough as the wave energy gets backed up / slows down as it interacts with the blocking pattern across the N Atlantic - with the storm track pushed a bit farther south. Let’s see where we go tho
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Time to dust off that snow meter...
 
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