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Pattern January Joke

Grensboro is sitting at -3 BN for the month of December.
Over the past 30 days, 24 have been BN, and 6 AN.
We got one more toasty day suposedly tommorow. Then thats it, assuming this wedge gets out of the way tommorow. Sunday will average AN slightly as we start the transition back to full time winter Sunday night.
 
GaWx said:
Today’s Euro Weeklies update:

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I’m willing to bet by mid Jan we have a +PNA mixed into a +TNH (Hudson bay vortex making an appearance) and we are losing NATL blocking by then. Probably gonna start getting Alaskan ridging in the mix once we retrograde enough. There’s no true MJO signature but there’s still a WWB showing up which could nudge convection further east in the western pacific. This feedbacks to a more favorable state for +TNH (and also another favorability for +PNA if it gets far east enough). If we can get that western US to Alaskan ridge combo, that would be really nice
 
Not that it matters at this point, but the GFS, GEFS,and GEPS still showing some PV stretching around 1/11. We still have the very early SSWE event from November effects working in the background through January. From what I read, we’ve only had a couple examples of that, but the following January was cold with snow and ice events especially mid to late January.


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HailCore said:
Latest GFS looked like it wanted to kick something up on the latest 18z around this timeframe, but never really got that connection with the trough and lacked moisture overall. Something to keep an eye on though.
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The 12Z GEFS had a couple of members that looked just like the CFS. Low chance at this point, but yes, eyes are on it.
 
Boys and girls how do we have multiple members on the GEFS with a full on winter storm signal across the mid-south for New Years
 

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trackersacker said:
Boys and girls how do we have multiple members on the GEFS with a full on winter storm signal across the mid-south for New Years
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At this moment I would favor west of the mountains/mountains for this possible event. The shortwave is not embedded in an environment to strengthen once it gets closer to the coastal states.
 
RBR71 said:
Thanks but I didn't ask you, sorry but trying to get those of you that post nothing of value to actually post some discussion about the comments made.
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I did, do you not see the EURO AI temps I just posted for the timeframe the others are showing Winter weather???? I don't care whether you ask me or not, it's discussion
 
Bigedd09 said:
Euro AI is brutal for winter lovers. Hopefully an 18z blip


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Meh. I'll take my chances with this general look out to the 10th. A 3-5 day warm period is favored following the back-to-back Arctic highs in the first week of January, then indications are we start rocking. Not to mention, we're talking about highly variable OP runs.
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Twister said:
I did, do you not see the EURO AI temps I just posted for the timeframe the others are showing Winter weather???? I don't care whether you ask me or not
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Dude, again, my response was not to you. It was to someone else, who post nothing but negative comments without substance. Therefore, I asked that individual to elaborate. Stay in your lane, thanks
 
TheBetterDoge said:
View attachment 180016Probably just a GEFS fluke, but here is the GEFS trend for NYD. Has no EPS support but something to watch I guess.
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Funny how give or take a day or two this is the same timeframe that the one Euro run from last Sunday had produced a beautiful southern snowstorm. What a treat it would be if it verified at this range.
 
I still have little faith in the AI models past 5 days. Really same can be said for the physics models. Throw the ensembles in there as well. I trust the euro physics model and eps the most past 5 days i guess, but again thats with cup half full.

Point of my post, is, we have had a full year for the AI models to adjust, get going. But I dont see any improvement at all compared to the physics models. Am I wrong, missing something?

Another subject. But id seriously love a thread , discussion on AI and whether its all bark or bite. As a dinosaur, id value reading some others opininons, discussion on AI and how its gonna drastically change our world over the next 12-18 months. I had grandparents go from hoarse an buggy to the moon,to the internet starting up.
All I hear is that type of change is gonna occur in a 1-3 year timeframe, not 1 century basically. Hard to get info off the internet that says" hold your hoarses" so to speak. Its all get off the tracks, the freight train is coming. This is in regards to the change thats coming due to AI.
 
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