Pattern January Joke

[NCSNOW]

Grensboro is sitting at -3 BN for the month of December.
Over the past 30 days, 24 have been BN, and 6 AN.
We got one more toasty day suposedly tommorow. Then thats it, assuming this wedge gets out of the way tommorow. Sunday will average AN slightly as we start the transition back to full time winter Sunday night.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Warm temps through Jan 9

 

[NBAcentel]

Same thing for all the either ens. Might be a small warm period as we switch to the PT regime, and as we are trying to flush out the Alaskan trough that was there previously from the Aleutian ridge. But you can clearly see it’s heading towards a PT/+PNA regime

 

[GaWx]

Today’s Euro Weeklies update:

 

[NBAcentel]

Today’s Euro Weeklies update:

View attachment 180001

I’m willing to bet by mid Jan we have a +PNA mixed into a +TNH (Hudson bay vortex making an appearance) and we are losing NATL blocking by then. Probably gonna start getting Alaskan ridging in the mix once we retrograde enough. There’s no true MJO signature but there’s still a WWB showing up which could nudge convection further east in the western pacific. This feedbacks to a more favorable state for +TNH (and also another favorability for +PNA if it gets far east enough). If we can get that western US to Alaskan ridge combo, that would be really nice

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Not that it matters at this point, but the GFS, GEFS,and GEPS still showing some PV stretching around 1/11. We still have the very early SSWE event from November effects working in the background through January. From what I read, we’ve only had a couple examples of that, but the following January was cold with snow and ice events especially mid to late January.


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[KyloG]

Best looking week 2 run on Euro in some time…maybe years

 

[iGRXY]

Wut is this View attachment 179964

The perennial Newfoundland to Aleutian trough.

 

[Bigedd09]

18z GFS looks like it could get interesting


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[Bigedd09]

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[Mitch West]

Everything better so far on the GFS.

 

[Mitch West]

Brother said "WHATTTTTS UPPPP"

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Some more noise to ring in the New Year. 5 days away

 

[HailCore]

Some more noise to ring in the New Year. 5 days away
View attachment 180005

Latest GFS looked like it wanted to kick something up on the latest 18z around this timeframe, but never really got that connection with the trough and lacked moisture overall. Something to keep an eye on though.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Latest GFS looked like it wanted to kick something up on the latest 18z around this timeframe, but never really got that connection with the trough and lacked moisture overall. Something to keep an eye on though.

The 12Z GEFS had a couple of members that looked just like the CFS. Low chance at this point, but yes, eyes are on it.

 

[NBAcentel]

The GFSAI is also similar now with a light freezing rain/sleet event for NC, just like the GFS

 

[Mitch West]

18z GFS AI just a Winter storm printer brother.

 

[trackersacker]

Boys and girls how do we have multiple members on the GEFS with a full on winter storm signal across the mid-south for New Years

 

[TheBatman]

18z GFS AI just a Winter storm printer brother.

You able to post the image. Thanks.

 

[Bigedd09]

Boys and girls how do we have multiple members on the GEFS with a full on winter storm signal across the mid-south for New Years

A little annoying how the precip dies east of the apps.


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[LukeBarrette]

Boys and girls how do we have multiple members on the GEFS with a full on winter storm signal across the mid-south for New Years

At this moment I would favor west of the mountains/mountains for this possible event. The shortwave is not embedded in an environment to strengthen once it gets closer to the coastal states.

 

[CaryWx]

Thanks fro. Can you post 850s?

 

[Mitch West]

At this moment I would favor west of the mountains/mountains for this possible event. The shortwave is not embedded in an environment to strengthen once it gets closer to the coastal states.

Agreed.

 

[rburrel2]

This day 8/9 ice threat has legs I think. Been flashing for a while and now all of a sudden we’ve got multiple models honing in on it.