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Pattern January Joke

trackersacker said:
Man it looks like we were trying for something right hereView attachment 179840
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Very small gray area to score but this is a nice look. Need to drop the TPV further south over the Great Lakes and deepening the North Atlantic trough can’t hurt. But it’s a thin thin line between a nice winter storm and completely squashing the southern stream and it being cold and dry
 
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Main takeaways from the 12z GEFS are lower heights over the Aleutians, more of a positive look to the PNA and no surprise here is the -NAO.


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Yeah the EPS is clearly headed for a pacific trough regime/+PNA regime. Wherever I read earlier that it wasn’t coming from a poster, it’s probably coming. This pacific jet extension looks legit, +EAMT and Indian Ocean convection, I’d be slightly worried about a overextension given the latter as well
 
Mitch West said:
Ridge popping out West at the end. Aleutian ridge done.
View attachment 179854
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Hopefully this and the 12Z GEPS are closer to reality than the 12Z GEFS, which is still another GEFS that largely has the opposite and maintains the current ugly H5 pattern. It was pretty wrong in 2021 at this time as evidenced by its PNA forecast continuing negative (though rising slowly) for Jan 9, 2022, which actually verified as the first day of 38 in a row with a +PNA.

Helping the chances that GEFS is wrong are the maps of all 3 ensemble means showing that they’ve had a strong -PNA bias over the last 90 days.

Ugly but hopefully wrong 12Z GEFS:
IMG_6486.png

12/26/21 GEFS PNA forecast through 1/9/22: too negative
IMG_6234.png
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
One thing that aggravates me is as of now, it looks as if the mother lode of cold in Alaska and the NW territories isn't going to come bodily into the CONUS.
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Maybe there’d be an opportunity for that extreme AK/NW Can cold to come bodily SE into the Conus in mid Jan per the latest 2 Euro Weeklies runs. From now into much of the week of Jan 5-11, the intense cold stays there thanks to the continuing -PNA. But then the mean H5 changes drastically for the week Jan 12-18:

IMG_6499.png

IMG_6500.png
 
GaWx said:
Maybe there’d be an opportunity for that extreme AK/NW Can cold to come bodily SE into the Conus in mid Jan per the latest 2 Euro Weeklies runs. From now into much of the week of Jan 5-11, the intense cold stays there thanks to the continuing -PNA. But then the mean H5 changes drastically for the week Jan 12-18:

View attachment 179865

View attachment 179866
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Would fit into the Dec -PNA to +PNA Jan, interesting how that correlation has become concrete for the last 30-40 years after it wasn’t in the early/mid 1900s
 
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