NBAcentel
Member
Operation nuke the Aleutian ridge 
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Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
The GFS OP took it out on day 11.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Considering every other model has shown something on various runs in that time frame, it’s something to watch
With it being pretty quiet in here, I think this is a good time to remind folks of the significant warm biases of the ens means over the last 90 days (180 EPS runs/360 GEFS runs) over the SE: keep in mind that these go back to late Sept/Oct meaning they’d be larger if we were just looking at the higher volatility Dec. Note also the cold bias in the NW US/SW Canada, which combined with the E US warm bias is indicative of a notable -PNA bias.
11-15 EPS: 2-4F
11-15 GEFS: 2-4.5F
The bias starts with day 1, but grows with forecast time. Thus the 6-10 also has been warm biased but not by as much as the 11-15:
6-10 EPS: 1.0-2.5F
6-10 GEFS: 1.5-3.5F
11-15 EPS: 2-4F
11-15 GEFS: 2-4.5F
The bias starts with day 1, but grows with forecast time. Thus the 6-10 also has been warm biased but not by as much as the 11-15:
6-10 EPS: 1.0-2.5F
6-10 GEFS: 1.5-3.5F
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Interesting analogs centered around mid January.
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