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Pattern January Joke

With it being pretty quiet in here, I think this is a good time to remind folks of the significant warm biases of the ens means over the last 90 days (180 EPS runs/360 GEFS runs) over the SE: keep in mind that these go back to late Sept/Oct meaning they’d be larger if we were just looking at the higher volatility Dec. Note also the cold bias in the NW US/SW Canada, which combined with the E US warm bias is indicative of a notable -PNA bias.

11-15 EPS: 2-4F
IMG_6434.png

11-15 GEFS: 2-4.5F
IMG_6432.png

The bias starts with day 1, but grows with forecast time. Thus the 6-10 also has been warm biased but not by as much as the 11-15:

6-10 EPS: 1.0-2.5F
IMG_6465.png

6-10 GEFS: 1.5-3.5F
IMG_6466.png
 
2735b6aaa829e784775ca8b5c7798553.jpg

Interesting analogs centered around mid January.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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