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Pattern January Joke

With it being pretty quiet in here, I think this is a good time to remind folks of the significant warm biases of the ens means over the last 90 days (180 EPS runs/360 GEFS runs) over the SE: keep in mind that these go back to late Sept/Oct meaning they’d be larger if we were just looking at the higher volatility Dec. Note also the cold bias in the NW US/SW Canada, which combined with the E US warm bias is indicative of a notable -PNA bias.

11-15 EPS: 2-4F
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11-15 GEFS: 2-4.5F
IMG_6432.png

The bias starts with day 1, but grows with forecast time. Thus the 6-10 also has been warm biased but not by as much as the 11-15:

6-10 EPS: 1.0-2.5F
IMG_6465.png

6-10 GEFS: 1.5-3.5F
IMG_6466.png
 
2735b6aaa829e784775ca8b5c7798553.jpg

Interesting analogs centered around mid January.


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Just watched the video JB said the Australian MJO was bringing it out and thru 4 5 6 7. He said there was a lot of convection in the Indian Ocean coming across that would try to mess with -WPO which was not nearly as negative as it was yesterday on the charts,
so would have to be watched. Other models was kind of keeping it in the circle. I think that’s the way I remember him saying.


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BIG FROSTY said:
Just watched the video JB said the Australian MJO was bringing it out and thru 4 5 6 7. He said there was a lot of convection in the Indian Ocean coming across that would try to mess with -WPO which was not nearly as negative as it was yesterday on the charts,
so would have to be watched. Other models was kind of keeping it in the circle. I think that’s the way I remember him saying.


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Yeah not seeing a positive pna anytime soon
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Just watched the video JB said the Australian MJO was bringing it out and thru 4 5 6 7. He said there was a lot of convection in the Indian Ocean coming across that would try to mess with -WPO which was not nearly as negative as it was yesterday on the charts,
so would have to be watched. Other models was kind of keeping it in the circle. I think that’s the way I remember him saying.


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CNCsnwfan1210 said:
31eac0429d78e443b962adbcf514b69d.gif

Bye bye Aleutian ridge


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We will see. Sure next runs be different t unfortunately
 
J1C1111 said:
That's exactly what I was going to say. I have never seen him positive about anything other than severe weather or fishing. Always negative.
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Yeh you can read right through a few on here. BUT it’s Christmas, I ain’t gonna be a jerk. Hope everyone has a great day! Winter is inevitable & we will rage in the coming weeks.
 
Mitch West said:
Yeh you can read right through a few on here. BUT it’s Christmas, I ain’t gonna be a jerk. Hope everyone has a great day! Winter is inevitable & we will rage in the coming weeks.
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I agree. Merry Christmas to all today no matter their opinion. Will get some winter weather cooking soon around here.
 
Notably, on ALL ensemble guidance, in addition to the PAC jet extension and the demise of the immovable Alutien ridge, a -NAO is featured throughout the run. There is little doubt we're on the doorstep of a major pattern change, and we would be wise to remember that run to run variablity may be even wilder than it has been of late.
 
Vibes haven’t been better this winter.

We’re certainly setting ourselves up very nicely in the long run by nuking the Aleutian ridge with a +EAMT event.

The -NAO should stick around for a while as well with the circulation anomalies from November & early December’s stratospheric warming event propagating deep into the troposphere.

Also, the subtropical jet is alive & kicking.

IMG_7025.jpeg
 
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