packfan98
Moderator
That’s above my pay grade. I’m using it for vibes and trends. Looking at potential outcomes and opportunities.
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Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
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I tend to think it can be utilized for feeling out if something is trending nicely for us / finding windows for potential wintry events. But that may be it
tennessee storm
Member
Dry. Dry
Brent
Member
Lol
NBAcentel
Member
Not the run to run change you want. Need that appendage over AK to be further west so it can extend our western ridging 
NBAcentel
Member
So far though GFS looks fine to me in a general sense, it’s AI cousin oth isn’t great
Bigedd09
Member
Canadian was better than 12z. We good. Relax 
You know that’s not a horrible look at all. A 1043 high dropping into the Dakotas with moisture moving across the southAIGFS is real close
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Peak winter form when the Canadian is dropping these bad boys in with a degree of blocking. You just sit back and wait 
trackersacker
Member
Euro was ready to cook at the end there.
00z euro overall stayed with the two troughs next week, although a smidge more progressive. Nothing jarring in terms of changes in that regard tho. Trended colder and more active the rest of the run with that fantasy storm loading up at the end.
00z euro overall stayed with the two troughs next week, although a smidge more progressive. Nothing jarring in terms of changes in that regard tho. Trended colder and more active the rest of the run with that fantasy storm loading up at the end.
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The 0Z EPS remains significantly colder than the 0Z GEFS and is almost as cold as the 12Z EPS.
Edit: In the much more unreliable portion of the run (day 11+), the 0Z EPS is a fair bit warmer than the 12Z, thus reversing the colder 12Z.
Edit: In the much more unreliable portion of the run (day 11+), the 0Z EPS is a fair bit warmer than the 12Z, thus reversing the colder 12Z.
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trackersacker
Member
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
This is old news, but thought I would share…2m temp anomalies for 1/10-1/25 on the Euro extended.
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tennessee storm
Member
Mean people actually pay attention to cmc lol
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
-NAO block keeps getting reinforced for the foreseeable future. Occasional shots of cold air from one of the coldest sources centered over Canada/Yukon territories. Can’t help but think of wintry weather down the road with this persistent -NAO.
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Good trends stopped overnight. This tends to happen when you have such an aggressive trend one way, things tend to balance out. 06z GFS follows the 00z by losing the second trough more. Seemed like this happened with our Arctic blast early last week. We had super aggressive runs then it trended away then it trended back South & we had record breaking lows.
06z GFS still delivers a parade of troughs
Agreed. Overall the theme remains the same we’ve seen the last couple days.
NBAcentel
Member
Models starting to slowly eliminate the Aleutian ridge, finally
NCHighCountryWX
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Euro Ensemble Guidance for NC Snow Areas
MichaelJ
Member
If the block can retrograde a little more west into Greenland, we could be in for some fun times. It has, ever so slightly, been suggesting it is and will continue
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
NBAcentel
Member
If we don’t go absolutely nuclear with the pacific jet we should see some change for the better, would be hilarious though if we went from Aleutian ridge to all out pacific jet furnace, but on the AIFS for ex you can see see signs of a PT regime
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
I’m hoping the end result will be more of a -EPO/+PNA /-NAO combo if we play our cards right. Hopefully the weeklies have a good handle on the January pattern coming up. The CFS pretty much mimicked the Euro ext FWIW.
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This is old news, but thought I would share…2m temp anomalies for 1/10-1/25 on the Euro extended.
Thanks. I prefer to post the ECMWF’s in-house maps because WxBell’s are too cold (always colder than those from the source). Also, the in-house are very easy to compare to previous days of runs.
NCHighCountryWX
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Morning from the land of the snow
Based on the overall 0Z/6Z model consensus being not as cold in the E US as the 12Z/18Z model consensus, which had lead to ~15% gain by late evening (best of all of 2025 so far), natural gas has not surprisingly had a good amount of selling, including profit taking, which has NG down over 4%. But that level is still 10-11% higher than the close of Monday.
Let’s see whether or not the 12Z will bounce back colder. This market will likely tell us the answer without having to actually look at the models, themselves.
Let’s see whether or not the 12Z will bounce back colder. This market will likely tell us the answer without having to actually look at the models, themselves.
Bigedd09
Member
11:30 and no posts in here about 12z data. Don’t even want to look lol. Merry Christmas everyone
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packfan98
Moderator
Put posts like this in the banter thread, please.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Some top-down strengthening starting to commence with the polar vortex as it begins to recover from the stratospheric warming event in late November.
We probably won’t notice anything in the troposphere until maybe late January or early February at the earliest.
A weak early winter polar vortex and strong late winter-early spring (Feb-March) polar vortex fits with the classic eQBO/high solar winter progression. It’s also pretty typical to see in the lead-up to El Niño, with many El Niño onset years often having a strong polar vortex during the late winter and springtime
We probably won’t notice anything in the troposphere until maybe late January or early February at the earliest.
A weak early winter polar vortex and strong late winter-early spring (Feb-March) polar vortex fits with the classic eQBO/high solar winter progression. It’s also pretty typical to see in the lead-up to El Niño, with many El Niño onset years often having a strong polar vortex during the late winter and springtime
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
GFS trying to sneak in a marginal event around 1/6, another VA bread winner
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CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Eric, doesn’t the earlier warming events that occur late fall/early winter like this one have longer lasting effects/lag time than the later SSWE’s?
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Oh
Well even if you factor in the CMC’s cold bias, that would still put lows in mid to upper teens for many areas east of the mountains with a storm approaching. I gotta say, I think it’s interesting we keep seeing that timeframe pop up on different runs of various models.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
There’s something that keeps showing up on the models toward the beginning of the first full week in January. Still a good time to watch IMO
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CNCsnwfan1210
Member
CMC had a cold run overall and at the end of the GFS run, model pile drives cold air into the Deep South. This will change obviously, but good to see cold shots still coming down from Canada.
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The 12Z UKMET looks poised to drop the hammer at the end of its run. It'll be interesting if the EURO follows suit.
Looks rather intriguing at 500mb too. EDIT. The Euro is meh.
Looks rather intriguing at 500mb too. EDIT. The Euro is meh.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
tennessee storm
Member
CMC lol
CMC had a cold run overall and at the end of the GFS run, model pile drives cold air into the Deep South. This will change obviously, but good to see cold shots still coming down from Canada.
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