She is
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Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
parade of arctic highs on the gfs makes for pretty maps
packfan98
Moderator
That’s just nuts!
NBAcentel
Member
Crazy that all of it is driven by this small subtle trend
Bigedd09
Member
Dang all those cold shots on the gfs and nothing to show for it. Guess you gotta get cold first to have a chance
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rburrel2
Member
The end of the 18z Ai gfs had a banger of a storm too. Saddle up boys!
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Well here’s happy hour and all the cold air goodies
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NBAcentel
Member
GEFS doing the same thing as expected 
if i can have my cake and eat it too i'd like to scoot our conus western ridge over a bit more, and of course get something under it. otherwise, greenland and seattle are roasting and cold is ready to keep on dropping out of the arctic. that makes jack happy
NBAcentel
Member
I mean it kinda did something though ? Not that it truly matters much. Think we are just trying to find a southern stream source aka the ULL near Cali actually moving eastward
rburrel2
Member
Mitch west alert!
Ohhh lawwwwwwwwd
Brother
Bigedd09
Member
Well that’s fun
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Well that’s fun
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Have you learned nothing in the last month about taking model data that far out verbatim?
Bigedd09
Member
Yeah it just sucks how there’s so much disagreement
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CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Follow the ensembles, it will make your life easier in that regard. Just don’t trust the long range ensembles, the way this game is going right now.
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Unless it is cold of course
I’ve been wondering for a couple days what would happen. Imagine if that NAO was just a tad further west
What do you think is causing that?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Might be everything just buckling and slowing more upstream as a domino effect from the -NAO. Basically causing a big traffic jam in and around N America
Could it be due to typical lag from the 11/28/25 SSWE, which was officially a reversal (though barely), earliest since 1968? StormchaserChuck at American thinks it probably is. He says lag is longer from earlier SSWEs.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t the SSWE reflected, thus having no impact on the troposphere?
The images uploaded to the other forum are in the format. ".webp" Which I do not believe this forum supports. It is a rather new file type created by google to support more stuff in a smaller file size.
18z gfs highs and lows for bhm. Nice change the last few runs
olhausen
Member
We live in the southeast. 90% of cold shots are going to have northing to show for as far as snow. That’s what makes snow so special around these parts.
NBAcentel
Member
Yeah that 18z AIFS run must of been a blip, the EPS-AI remains similar if not a little better 
NCHighCountryWX
Member
- Joined
- Dec 28, 2016
- Messages
- 573
- Reaction score
- 1,597
Official guidance. 
NCHighCountryWX
Member
- Joined
- Dec 28, 2016
- Messages
- 573
- Reaction score
- 1,597
Yes, I remember others mentioning that a bunch of times although I don’t fully understand it. Does this mean it might not really have been “reflected”? Maybe I’ll ask Chuck.
Back! Like Sir mix A lot
packfan98
Moderator
Good amount of noise this far out on the 18z euro ai. The other models have a signal too, but not as strong as the AI. It will be interesting to see how it pans out.
It's not quite at voodoo level, but it's not far away, honestly. Sometimes, I think people just make up stuff to sound smart.
i think I’ve asked this Q already, but again: do we think we can trust these as more of “vibes based” guidance? As in, treated the same as any other ensemble but with perhaps less credence to the actual numbers on there. Lots of members showing snow still indicative of good signal. I am not sure if the oddities it shows with snow way out of place affect these charts significantly enough to inflate them beyond trust
Euro ai ensemble not to be trusted on surface output at range but the medium range trend should keep people from speaking in absolutes. We don’t know as humans what will happen definitively but the seasons trend is to back the flow more in the short/medium range been that way all year. If we get energy timed up correctly the potential is huge.
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