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Pattern January Joke
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NCSNOW
Member
Nice Deep South Ice storm on 12Z canadian 9 days out.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Some of its ensemble members have been showing something similar.
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tennessee storm
Member
No worries. It’s the cmc lolYou can keep it and Merry Christmas
It’d be nice to see some fantasy storms show up on the models that matter.You can keep it and Merry Christmas
trackersacker
Member
Man it looks like we were trying for something right here
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Oconeexman
Member
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Thats a sweet look with maybe some coastal enhancement
iGRXY
Member
Very small gray area to score but this is a nice look. Need to drop the TPV further south over the Great Lakes and deepening the North Atlantic trough can’t hurt. But it’s a thin thin line between a nice winter storm and completely squashing the southern stream and it being cold and dry
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
The Euro AI wasn’t too far off either, just need the system to dig further south.
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Nice cross polar flow setting up on the EPS.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Main takeaways from the 12z GEFS are lower heights over the Aleutians, more of a positive look to the PNA and no surprise here is the -NAO.
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We got one heck of a EPS run rolling in right now. Nice changes.
trackersacker
Member
NBAcentel
Member
Yeah the EPS is clearly headed for a pacific trough regime/+PNA regime. Wherever I read earlier that it wasn’t coming from a poster, it’s probably coming. This pacific jet extension looks legit, +EAMT and Indian Ocean convection, I’d be slightly worried about a overextension given the latter as well
Ridge popping out West at the end. Aleutian ridge done.
NBAcentel
Member
Yep. Aleutian low starting to crank as well. If you took H5 out more that’s probably where the mean trough was heading, for the Aleutian Islands. Could see the retrogression beginning
wow
Member
What a great string of posts on this delightful Christmas day. I have a tropical polo and shorts on but dreams of massive snowfall rates with 15 degree temps are dancing in my head.
Merry Christmas to everyone, even to Larry Cosgrove
Merry Christmas to everyone, even to Larry Cosgrove
Hopefully this and the 12Z GEPS are closer to reality than the 12Z GEFS, which is still another GEFS that largely has the opposite and maintains the current ugly H5 pattern. It was pretty wrong in 2021 at this time as evidenced by its PNA forecast continuing negative (though rising slowly) for Jan 9, 2022, which actually verified as the first day of 38 in a row with a +PNA.
Helping the chances that GEFS is wrong are the maps of all 3 ensemble means showing that they’ve had a strong -PNA bias over the last 90 days.
Ugly but hopefully wrong 12Z GEFS:
12/26/21 GEFS PNA forecast through 1/9/22: too negative
