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Pattern January Joke

LukeBarrette said:
View attachment 181140
A better greenland block would make this look amazing
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738384ba4ab38b368f3b40980c22f7c8.gif

Nice shot of cold air associated with that trough


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I hardly ever look at the GFS anymore, it is a trash model. I do pay some attention to the GEFS and its AI ensemble but mostly depend on the EURO (although the old gray mare just ain't what she used to be) on the deterministic models. Seems we will spend some time in the MJO phase 6, but it SHOULD rotate into 7 and possibly 8 by the end of the month. The indices look fairly promising for a time but the warmth will fight back for a while (maybe 4-5 days worth). There is surprising agreement between the ECMWF and GEFS Ensembles as well as the AIGEFS and ECMWF AIFS ensembles on the indices which is a good sign because it would bring back the possibility of winter weather in the SE based on todays depictions
 
 

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MichaelJ said:
I hardly ever look at the GFS anymore, it is a trash model. I do pay some attention to the GEFS and its AI ensemble but mostly depend on the EURO (although the old gray mare just ain't what she used to be) on the deterministic models. Seems we will spend some time in the MJO phase 6, but it SHOULD rotate into 7 and possibly 8 by the end of the month. The indices look fairly promising for a time but the warmth will fight back for a while (maybe 4-5 days worth). There is surprising agreement between the ECMWF and GEFS Ensembles as well as the AIGEFS and ECMWF AIFS ensembles on the indices which is a good sign because it would bring back the possibility of winter weather in the SE based on todays depictions
Click to expand...
I want to get excited and be optimistic when I see good outputs on the GFS, but can’t really do that with it changing every single run. It really has gone downhill recently.
 
NBAcentel said:
One trend I am liking tonight so far on early runs is pushing back the Alaskan low towards the Aleutians View attachment 181160
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This trend has been occuring on the AIGFS, the result later is apparent, with a taller western ridge later on giving its not squishing it as much IMG_1768.gifIMG_1767.gif
This also results in more digging for the interesting look around day 9-11IMG_1769.gif
 
that lil 1/15 deal isn’t that far off tbh

Same deal as always. Sharpen that ridge back west. That elongated humpback ridge stretching into the plains does nothing for us. Back it up and send it vertical and we might get a surprise fantasy run or two. Or not. Maybe I’m so fantasy run deprived idk what I’m even looking at anymore
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Obviously yeah this is just an operational run from the worst model on the planet but cleaning little features like this up go a long way especially in regards to keeping the ridge contained to the immediate west coastView attachment 181176
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GFS had a few cold shots on this run, glad to see it. I agree in keeping that ridge persistent over the west coast and not clouding it up with random lows/cutoffs etc. 6z might be a bikini run, but I liked the cold shots that were coming south and the pieces of energy flowing through.


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