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Pattern January Joke

Webberweather53 said:
My guess is the GEFS is picking up on another big subseasonal push towards El Niño in Feb, much like the weeklies are.

That is honestly pretty on brand for El Niño onset years and makes some sense to me. We usually see a nice surge in westerly wind burst activity in Feb-Mar, which is also the time of the year when the MJO is most active
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Do you think we are washed for January?
 
7957953e20ca2554bcbb16c82fcadeb2.png

Classic roller coaster temp forecast from my tempest wx station


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82ad338c5fef9eb519309f5b4e29dd11.png

e54fefeaee483e26ccc2b4119a94d98c.png

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In today’s SPV news, the 12z Euro has the stretched polar vortex over eastern NA 1/13-1/16 and by 1/18 it scoots the SPV off into the western Atlantic. Keep in mind though, just as these ridges over the eastern US have trended to troughs, the same thing is happening with the SPV in the long range with the vortex trending back westward in the medium range.


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Tarheel1 said:
Sounds like backpedaling to me! Pretty sure last week he said ignore the torch or it would only be a few short days and now he’s seemed to have pushed back to “ possible “ changes in the end of January
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No. They’ve talked about the idea of a warmup for weeks for that timeframe. You gotta learn to pay attention before you make wrong accusations like that.
 
Ksnow33 said:
When I lived in Yancey County I hated it. It would snow and inch or 2 then melt in between squalls when the sun came out. Then snow another inch, then the wind would blow it away. Almost always powdery, not good for snowmen, snowballs etc.
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Yeah getting snow all the time would suck. It's so much better to live in a place that can't even luck into it. 🙄
 
CNCsnwfan1210 said:
82ad338c5fef9eb519309f5b4e29dd11.png

e54fefeaee483e26ccc2b4119a94d98c.png

7f7bd12706d73aff31716fae30ede1ef.png

In today’s SPV news, the 12z Euro has the stretched polar vortex over eastern NA 1/13-1/16 and by 1/18 it scoots the SPV off into the western Atlantic. Keep in mind though, just as these ridges over the eastern US have trended to troughs, the same thing is happening with the SPV in the long range with the vortex trending back westward in the medium range.


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I like to see the pretty greens and blues over the east, but I'm not sure we're all aligned around what is best/proper to look at wrt the stratosphere stuff. Is it the temps? The temp anomalies? The height anomalies? At 50 mb? 10 mb?
 
Rain Cold said:
I like to see the pretty greens and blues over the east, but I'm not sure we're all aligned around what is best/proper to look at wrt the stratosphere stuff. Is it the temps? The temp anomalies? The height anomalies? At 50 mb? 10 mb?
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This just indicates a stretched SPV and the colder core is over eastern NA during that time period. Basically one of the avenues for cold air delivery.


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CNCsnwfan1210 said:
This just indicates a stretched SPV and the colder core is over eastern NA during that time period. Basically one of the avenues for cold air delivery.


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Yep for sure. What puzzles me with this stuff is that sometimes the image you posted gets shared when the height anomaly shows yellow over the area. And when the height anomaly shows blue, the height anomaly is the one that gets posted. I'm just not sure which one is best to use. I mean, I guess we could just default to the one that has the most blues and greens and go with that! 😅
 
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