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Pattern January Joke

trackersacker said:
At least he didn’t go off on that corny little plug he always has for “some of our best snows have been in late February and March” .

Yeah Brad. Let me unpack that for you. Any snow that late in the season melts in 5 minutes. What we really care about is the next 5-6 weeks. Spare us.
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Usually, not always.
 
ducketta27 said:
Whatcha think


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GFS is showing a wild scenario that would make sense in the coming pattern. A deep trough can bring snow for some and none for others. The tilt and timing of the system has to work a lot in your favor to get it to work however.
 
I wouldn't put much stock into the very end of the euro run the way models are to get everything sorted out. Probably right where we want it at this range the way things have been going lately with all the flip flopping. Just trying to stay positive. I hate to see it to.
 
Webberweather53 said:
My guess is we end up looking more like the AI ensemble suites when all is said & done.

Cross-polar flow w/ -EPO will favor a deeper Hudson Bay vortex than the traditional models (esp the GEFS) are currently showing.
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It's good & bad. You got a ridiculous amount of cold that will likely set up for areas that have been cold, but it just seems like we enter a period in the 2nd half of January where it stays stupid cold to the North, warmer to the South & a tight slightly wobbling around boundary in between. That boundary will probably be an active Winter storm corridor. Which basically aligns with the 3-4 week outlook from the CPC. That leaves us further South begging for left over CAD set ups as cold air oozes down East of the mountains or as a trough finally digs, we are left over with NW flow snow & a cold dry day East of the mountains.

Good news is there is a lot of cold air not to far away, just need dots to connect.
 
Mitch West said:
It's good & bad. You got a ridiculous amount of cold that will likely set up for areas that have been cold, but it just seems like we enter a period in the 2nd half of January where it stays stupid cold to the North, warmer to the South & a tight slightly wobbling around boundary in between. That boundary will probably be an active Winter storm corridor. Which basically aligns with the 3-4 week outlook from the CPC. That leaves us further South begging for left over CAD set ups as cold air oozes down East of the mountains or as a trough finally digs, we are left over with NW flow snow & a cold dry day East of the mountains.

Good news is there is a lot of cold air not to far away, just need dots to connect.
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When you’re dealing with these big +TNH looks, subtle shifts in the longwave pattern lead to very outsized changes in sensible impacts. A small tweak can take you from what looked like a sure fire spring day to the icebox in a hurry.

Usually, when we get winter storms in these patterns, they end up being large scale warm advection & overrunning events and we rarely see them coming beyond the medium range, and the models underestimate them in the short term.

More times than not in these patterns, the cold ends up pressing further south and east than forecast in the extended range. I’m old enough to remember this was a common theme even back in 2013-14. A warm pattern suddenly flipped to a really cold one once we got inside day 7
 
Webberweather53 said:
It’s important to remember going forward the rest of the way this winter that handling strong, shallow Arctic air masses is not a strong suit of global model forecasts. This is one of the reasons why oftentimes these air masses end up sneaking further SE in this type of pattern
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I mentioned that very thing yesterday. It almost always happens. And like you said, the propensity for the models to continually place a trough out west at the end of their runs, only to correct, is hilarious.

Either way, other than the continued lack of fantasy storms, I don’t see anything disastrous in the overnight guidance. At all.

As you said, a couple of small-scale tweaks and you go from spring to deep winter in a hurry, with a winter storm bearing down on you, seemingly out of nowhere. We've been in MUCH worse shape than this.
 
Webberweather53 said:
When you’re dealing with these big +TNH looks, subtle shifts in the longwave pattern lead to very outsized changes in sensible impacts. A small tweak can take you from what looked like a sure fire spring day to the icebox in a hurry.

Usually, when we get winter storms in these patterns, they end up being large scale warm advection & overrunning events and we rarely see them coming beyond the medium range, and the models underestimate them in the short term.

More times than not in these patterns, the cold ends up pressing further south and east than forecast in the extended range. I’m old enough to remember this was a common theme even back in 2013-14. A warm pattern suddenly flipped to a really cold one once we got inside day 7
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I seem to remember how the February 2014 storm or the back to back storms like some of us had, everything kept trending colder basically right up to go time. I think the important thing I noticed from the overnight ensembles is that cold is close by
 
27c7ef2f86b26c0681ff6f3d2374f6e3.gif

Look at the adjustments the GEFS has made in 48 hours on the 06z run


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Rain Cold said:
I mentioned that very thing yesterday. It almost always happens. And like you said, the propensity for the models to continually place a trough out west at the end of their runs, only to correct, is hilarious.

Either way, other than the continued lack of fantasy storms, I don’t see anything disastrous in the overnight guidance. At all.

As you said, a couple of small-scale tweaks and you go from spring to deep winter in a hurry, with a winter storm bearing down on you, seemingly out of nowhere. We've been in MUCH worse shape than this.
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Yes, fantasy storms would be nice. It’s IMO the beginning baby steps of tracking.

But I do like the fact that we will likely have a massive cold pool of air just North of us ready to be dislodged
 
Webberweather53 said:
When you’re dealing with these big +TNH looks, subtle shifts in the longwave pattern lead to very outsized changes in sensible impacts. A small tweak can take you from what looked like a sure fire spring day to the icebox in a hurry.

Usually, when we get winter storms in these patterns, they end up being large scale warm advection & overrunning events and we rarely see them coming beyond the medium range, and the models underestimate them in the short term.

More times than not in these patterns, the cold ends up pressing further south and east than forecast in the extended range. I’m old enough to remember this was a common theme even back in 2013-14. A warm pattern suddenly flipped to a really cold one once we got inside day 7
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If im not mistaken, 2014 February had a large amount of temperature swings before and after the big ice storm, even into march we had a cooldown which had zr
 
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